By Aidan Smyth
Germany
World Ranking : 11
Manager : Hansi Flick
Star Player : Joshua Kimmich
Strengths
Germany have 7 Bayern Munich and 5 Dortmund players in their squad, almost half of their squad coming from 2 clubs. So where other teams coming into the tournament won’t have played together much, and may take time to gel, you wouldn’t expect that issue with the Germans. The strength in depth the Germans have is also a major plus for their chances. Players like Goretzka and Sule may not even start games, and you’d have to say if the starting players were to get injured, it is not a considerable downgrade to the substitutes, unlike some of the other fancied nations.
Weaknesses
The clear weakness in this German side is the lack of a recognised top class striker. An injury to Timo Werner came at the worst possible time and leaves Kai Havertz as the likely forward for them going into the tournament. Havertz has played the false 9 role for Chelsea and scored massive goals, who can forget the winner in Porto, but all in all his goal scoring record leaves a lot to be desired from a front man in a team who dominates the ball. He’s had more success for Germany, his brace recently vs England was top class, but you’d be hard pushed to say that Kai Havertz is a clinical enough forward to compete with the likes of Kane, Mbappe, Messi and Neymar, who are the sorts of forwards that teams expecting to go far have.
Star Man
Joshua Kimmich has become one of the most consistent performers in world football over the last few years at Bayern Munich, and for Germany. He’s the sort of player who never drops below a 7/10, in every competition he’s played in in 2022, his average rating varies between 7.2/10 and 7.9/10, the model of consistency. Kimmich played every minute of every match in Germany’s nations league group, and you’d expect that dependence on him at the base of midfield to continue here. Germany didn’t drop below 60% possession in any of their games in the Nations League despite playing the 2 Euros finalists, England and Italy. Kimmich is instrumental to this, and how Germany want to play, dominating the ball, and his ability to take the ball from the defence and keep possession, dictating the tempo will be huge for Germany.
One to Watch
A lot of the youngsters fancied to have big tournaments at the World Cup are yet to really break onto the scene at massive clubs yet, but that can’t be said for the brilliant young German Jamal Musiala. He already has 9 goals and 8 assists for Bayern this season, leading the way in both of those categories, which is remarkable for such a young player in such a huge team. Kai Havertz has mainly struggled at Chelsea due to a lack of clear chances but with this young genius behind him, he can expect plenty of chances to come his way, the creativity and intelligence of Musiala may mean that despite the lack of a world class striker, that they create enough chances to fire them a long way in this tournament.
Bets
My first selection is Germany to win the group, I don’t think they’ll have too much trouble with Costa Rica and Japan, despite some of the strengths they have, and the Spanish forward line might not have enough to trouble Germany in what you’d expect to be the group decider.
I’ve also backed Germany to win all of their group games, as mentioned above they’ll be confident of beating the 2 lower ranked sides in the group, and I fancy the Germans to be too solid for Spain in that game.
Musiala looks great value as young player of the tournament. Bellingham will obviously be the popular choice but Musiala has outshone his young counterpart in the Bundesliga so far this year and if he gets the role in behind Havertz, he could easily do so again in this tournament.
Havertz is seen as the Germans biggest weakness, his goal scoring record at Chelsea isnt the most impressive, but he does have a history of scoring massive goals, and with the creativity behind him in Gnabry, Musiala and Sane, you’d have to fancy Havertz to get plenty of chances and if they go far, 33/1 could be outstanding value for him to top the scoring charts.
Germany to win the group - 6/5
Germany exactly 9 points - 4/1
Jamal Musiala Young player of the tournament - 13/2
Kai Havertz golden boot - 33/1 ew
Havertz Top German Scorer - 9/2
Spain
World ranking - 7
Manager - Luis Enrique
Star Man - Aymeric Laporte
Strengths
The big strength of Spain has for years now been their ability to keep the ball, particularly in midfield. With the heat in Qatar, teams that keep the ball well are going to have a major advantage when it comes to tiredness, and this Spanish midfield looks very special. Rodri has fast become one of, if not the best, holding midfielder in world football, and with La Masia graduates Pedri and Gavi in midfield with him, you have to think it’s going to be extremely difficult to try and win the ball back from them.
Weaknesses
As has been their weakness since the Torres/Villa glory days for Spain, the forward line looks weak again this time around. With Ferran Torres, Alvaro Morata and Pablo Sarabia expected to be the front 3, you have to question whether that’s strong enough to go deep in the tournament.
Star Man
In recent seasons Aymeric Laporte has been superb for Pep Guardiola and Man City and his decision to switch his nation from France to Spain, was a massive coup for the Spaniards. It was always going to be a thankless task trying to replace Sergio Ramos after so many years at the top, but in Laporte they have someone who is superb on the ball and rarely makes a mistake, as good a replacement as they could have hoped for.
One to Watch
Pedri is the obvious option here after his exploits at Euro 2020 earned him the young player of the tournament there, but Ansu Fati is my one to watch. As mentioned above many pundits don’t expect Fati to start the tournament, but if, like I expect, Spain struggle for goals in the opening few games, Ansu Fati could find himself getting more then substitute appearances. Fati burst onto the scene at Barcelona in 2019, scoring 7 times in that season, his injury issues since have kept him out, but he was on the scoresheet in Spains last friendly last week, and if he gets game time he could be a great outside shout for young player of the tournament.
Best Bets
The Germany/Spain straight forecast is my first bet including Spain. I have already mentioned I think Germany will have too much for Spain, but it would be a major shock if the Spaniards didn’t have enough to cruise past the other teams in this group.
In the top scorer market, it’s dominated by Alvaro Morata unsurprisingly as he is expected to take penalties and play every minute up top for Spain. Ferran Torres did score 4 goals in 6 qualifying games for Spain however, and with Morata not being known as the most clinical finisher in the world, Torres could outscore the forward and represents better value.
Germany/Spain straight forecast - 7/4
Ferran Torres top Spain scorer - 7/2
Japan
World ranking - 24
Manager - Hajime Moriyasu
Star Man - Daichi Kamada
Strengths
The strength of this Japanese side is undoubtedly their defence. Prior to the friendly against Canada the other day, where their was plenty of substitutions, Japan had kept 5 straight clean sheets, despite not having star defender Tomiyasu for a few of those. Those games have included clean sheets against Ecuador and USA who have already impressed in this tournament.
Weaknesses
The big struggle Japan have in this tournament is the strength of the group they find themselves in. I’ve spoken above about the Germans and Spanish, and despite Japan fancying their chances against Costa Rica, it is certainly going to be a major uphill battle for them to finish anywhere but 3rd.
Star Man
Daichi Kamada is going to be instrumental if Japan are to gatecrash Group E and knock out one of the big European nations. The 26 year old already has 7 goals and 4 assists in just 13 games for Frankfurt this season, as well as being on the scoresheet in the 2-0 win over USA in September, and you’d have to say if they are to qualify from arguably the toughest group in the tournament, he is going to really need to bring his A game to Qatar.
One to Watch
25 year old Yuki Soma scored in the recent friendly against Canada, as well as finding the net against South Korea and twice against Hong Kong in July. He plies his trade for Nagoya in the Japanese First Dvision, so is unheard of to many, but he has performed well in a Japanese shirt when given the chance, and if he gets onto the pitch at this tournament, expect the tricky winger to cause problems.
Bets
Although I don’t expect Japan to qualify from this group, with their defensive solidity and Spain’s lack of goals at times, I’d be wary to predict 3 points as the exact number of points. However, I don’t see any way they don’t beat a very Costa Rica side, so at 3/1 I’m backing the exact group finish of Germany/Spain/Japan/Costa Rica.
I am also punting at a big price on Soma to be top scorer for Japan. Goals will be hard to come by against Germany and Spain so it may not take many goals to lead this market. Although Soma may not be guaranteed to start, and isn’t prolific for his club side, in recent times he has scored plenty for Japan. He has scored in 3 of the last 4 games in which Japan have found the net, scoring 4 goals in those games, and at an enormous price, he could represent a slight bit of value.
Exact group finish - Germany/Spain/Japan/Costa Rica - 3/1
Top Japan goalscorer - Yuki Soma - 25/1
Costa Rica
World Ranking - 31
Manager - Luis Fernando Suarez
Star Man - Keylor Navas
Strengths
For a team that came fourth in arguably the easiest qualifying section in the world, there isn’t too many strengths to pick out but what they do have is a goalkeeper who is still world class. Although now mainly taking a bench role at PSG Keylor Navas is still more then capable of putting on great goalkeeping displays, and he is going to need to for Costa Rica to get any points in this group. From being in big trouble in the qualification stage, they did win 6 of their last 7 games, including 5 clean sheets, so they are capable of turning it on when required.
Weaknesses
Goals is a major issue for Costa Rica, and in a group with 3 defensively solid teams it is hard to see them scoring too many goals in this group. They only scored 8 goals in 14 games in qualifying and that includes games against nations such as Panama, Honduras and El Salvador, a huge huge step down from the sides they’ll face in this group, with the greatest respect to those nations.
Star Man
Keylor Navas is undoubtedly the star of this team and will need to be at his best if Costa Rica are to even think about progressing past the group stage. As mentioned above they did sort their defence out towards the back end of their qualification, clean sheets against USA, Mexico and Canada were key to them progressing to Qatar, and Navas will need to make sure the defence is as solid in this group. Japan have struggled for goals at times, so if they can be defensively solid, they have to target that game and then hope for a minor miracle against the big European nations, but they have qualified from the group of death before, and will hope lightning can strike twice.
One time Watch
Anthony Contreras is a 22 year old forward that many won’t have heard of before, but he scored 2 of the 8 Costa Rican goals in qualifying and already has 6 this season for Costa Rican side Herediano. He can play through the middle or out wide and in a team that has very little expectations in the tournament, Contreras will fancy showing the world his talent.
Bets
The Germany/Costa Rica first/last double looks a nice bet here. Costa Rica will fancy themselves to give Japan a real game, but it’s unlikely they’ll finish anywhere but last here. The Germany first is the play I’m going with at 2/1 but if you fancy Spain to beat Germany to top spot, the Spain/Costa Rica is also available at 7/4.
Costa Rica are one of the favourites to be the lowest scoring side. Many can’t see them scoring a goal in the tournament with the lack of goals in their side and the defensive solidity of the teams they play, so I’m backing them to be the lowest scorers in the tournament at 8/1.
Finally, I’m backing Costa Rica to finish with 0 points. You’d have to say Germany and Spain are very very long odds on shots to beat Costa Rica, so you’re effectively getting 15/8 on Japan beating them, which is enormous to me, my most confident play in this group is this bet and at 15/8 I’d be very surprised to see it lose.
Germany/Costa Rica First/Last double - 2/1
Costa Rica lowest tournament scorers - 8/1
Costa Rica 0 points exactly - 15/8 (Nap)
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