By Michael Douglas
Our 3rd numbered UFC event in the space of a month and those following my picks know that this is a rematch of one that cost us back at UFC 281 as Israel Adesanya looks to regain the Middleweight Championship and prove that he can beat Alex Pereira at the 4th attempt across two combat disciplines.
Some interesting fights on the rest of the card too as the King of Miami Jorge Masvidal fights in front of his home crowd in the co-main event. Expect the atmosphere for that one to be wild!
Lets have a look at the main and co-main events and find some bets across the card as the UFC looks to make their mark on a fantastic weekend of Sports.
Main Event – Middleweight Championship – Alex Pereira (C) v Israel Adesanya
I could easily cut and paste my UFC 281 preview here as my thinking is exactly the same. Adesanya was in full control of the fight, up 3 rounds to 1 going into the final round he got caught by the incredible power of Pereira and was possibly the victim of an early stoppage by the ref although I’m not sure he could have avoided more power shots after he got rocked.
Up to that point he did exactly what I thought he would, kept Pereira at a distance, kept moving and very occasionally mixed in some wrestling, a clear weakness in Pereira’s game. Unbelievably though just as happened in one of the two kickboxing bouts between the pair (Pereira won both) as Adesanya was cruising to a decision Pereira proved that he has power for 25 minutes and ripped the belt from Adesanya.
So we ask again what Adesanya needs to do to win here? He has to be perfect it seems, 25 mins of sticking and moving, more wrestling and avoiding at all costs a fire fight with the heavy hitting champion. I believe he can do this, Adesanya is as technically good as anyone in the game and has shown he can learn from his mistake.
For Pereira he just needs to find that opportunity and take advantage of it in exactly the same way. An underrated feature of the last fight was Pereira’s success with leg kicks which did slow Adesanya down and he’ll need that again to hang on to his belt and beat Adesanya for an unprecedented 4th time in combat sports!
I like Adesanya by Unanimous Decision here if you can find that specific market but I’m happy to take the 9/5 on Bink Bet for Adesanya by decision and include him in a decision double with my co-main event selection.
Co-Main Event – Welterweight– Jorge Masvidal v Gilbert Burns
The King of Miami gets the chance to show out in his home city and the atmosphere when he walks out and when Bruce Buffer announces him in the Octagon will be sensational. For me though that might be the high point as I just don’t see Masvidal pulling the upset here. Masvidal is tough and will be no easy out for Gilbert Burns but I don’t think he has the all round game to live with Burns who will surely look to control the fight on the ground where he has a clear advantage. In a 5 round fight I could see Burns getting a finish but in this 3 round bout I think Masvidal sees the judges scorecards where Burns wins by decision.
Masvidal’s main hope must surely be early in the fight. Everyone remembers his famous running knee KO of Ben Askren 5 seconds into the fight. I can see him trying something spectacular in the first minute or two. If Burns plays it cool though and rides the early storm he should be able to take another step closer to a UFC Welterweight Title shot against Leon Edwards or Colby Covington who looks to be next up for a crack at the gold.
I’m adding Burns by Decision to Adesanya by Decision for a double of just over 7/1.
The Rest of The Card
Kelvin Gastellum needs to show that he still has the fire for the highest level of MMA and against Chris Curtis he’ll need to avoid the power strikes that has seen 3 of his last 4 wins finish inside the distance. Gastellum should have the gameplan to ensure this fight takes place where he wants it too and will be part of my accumulator across the card.
Raul Rosas Jr gets to open a PPV card at 18 years of age after winning his UFC debut at UFC 282. The UFC clearly has high hopes for this wrestling phenom but he has a tough test in Christian Rodriguez, a veteran in comparison at 25 years of age. Rosas is in this spot for a reason though and I’m confident he moves to 8-0 in his young MMA career and gets us a green tick for the accumulator.
Kevin Holland is a man always worth watching when he fights, a man who loves to talk to his opponents as the fight goes on whether he’s winning or losing you always get the entertainment value and he faces a dangerous striker in Santiago Ponzinibbio here. The Argentine looked destined for the very top in 2017/18 as he rattled off wins against Gunnar Nelson (I was there in Glasgow for this and it silenced the arena), Mike Perry and Neil Magny but after a 3 year absence he hasn’t quite looked the same alternating wins and losses in his last 5. You never quite know what you’ll get from Kevin Holland in a fight but he has seemed focused this week and I’m throwing him into the accumulator.
Adrian Yanez is on a 5 fight UFC win streak including an absolute barnburner against the super tough Geordie Davey Grant. In all 5 of those fights he earned a performance bonus so when he fights it’s well worth tuning in. This weekend he gets the tough, experienced Rob Font as he looks to move into the top 10 rankings at Bantamweight. Font has mixed with the very best in the division, holding a win over former champ Cody Garbrandt as recently as 2021. I think Yanez is the fighter on the up here though and as a slight favourite we’ll add him to the Acca too.
A really interesting card here, the UFC is on a roll right now and they continue to deliver the big fights every month, letshope we can bounce back from a blank event last time out and move back into profit overall with a win or two.
Enjoy the Fights!
Best Bets:
(all prices correct with BinkBet as of 9pm Friday but keep an eye out on the Socials for any boosts)
Israel Adesanya by Decision – 9/5
Burns and Adesanya by Decision – 7.2/1
Accumulator: Gastellum, Rosas Jr, Holland, Yanez and Burns to win – 6.35/1
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