By Michael Douglas
UFC 285 gave us winners at 3/1 and 7/1 winners, as the return of the GOAT Jon Jones proved a profitable one for us!
Now the UFC’s brilliant run of cards continues with UFC 286 from the o2 Arena in London and I have major FOMO at not making the journey south now that fight weekend is here!
Leon Edwards gets his homecoming as the Welterweight Champ and he faces the man he wrested the belt from in that famous fight in Salt Lake City. The head kick heard around the world rescued victory from the jaws of defeat as Edwards was clearly losing the fight and was 50 seconds from dropping back into the Welterweight wilderness.
Instead we get the rare numbered UK event and a pretty solid card underneath including a Co-main event that is guaranteed to produce fireworks! Lets have a close look at the top two fights and then pull out some best bets for this UK prime time event on BT Sport Box Office.
Main Event – Welterweight Championship – Leon Edwards (C) v Kamaru Usman
These two know each other very well by now as this will be their third meeting and with the score tied at one win apiece this will settle the rivalry. Was Edwards head kick a fluke or does he now have Usman’s number? How will Usman react to being knocked out cold for the first time in his UFC career?
Usman comes into this rematch as the favourite and the last few years before he ran into Edwards foot in Utah mean that’s probably deserved. Usman was sat atop the rankings as the best pound for pound fighter in the world and had dominated the division until he ran into that kick and you have to feel that he will look to return to the gameplan that had him coasting to victory by taking Edwards down and controlling him on the floor. Usman has been as confident as ever this week and a part of me feels like it’s bravado, he knows now Edwards can stop him and that has to play into his psyche.
A good night for Usman will be reminiscent of when Georges St Pierre lost his title to Matt Serra via shock TKO and in the rematch played it super safe and controlled the fight for 5 rounds to regain his belt. Usman will be looking to do exactly that and silence the home crowd.
Edwards struggled in the fight that brought him his World Championship, he had a decent Round 1 and looked dangerous on his back but in rounds 2-4 and 4 minutes of Round 5 he looked sluggish. I actually think the altitude factor of Salt Lake City affected him a lot more than he let on and having to constantly fight off takedowns just drained him completely.
No such factors at play for this fight though and Edwards needs to keep this fight standing as I believe he can pick Usman off if he does. The noise in the o2 will be deafening and this could spur Edwards on to a victory that establishes him firmly as the best Welterweight on the planet. The scenes if Edwards can do this will be unreal and I genuinely fancy him to do it. Sometimes the way you beat someone is key and I think the way Usman lost that fight wont have left him and Edwards can use that in his technical striking and I think Edwards might even get the stoppage in the 2nd half of the fight to send the UK fans into the night on a high.
Co-Main Event – Lightweight – Justin Gaethje v Rafael Fiziev
Gaethje is nicknamed the Human Highlight Reel and with good reason. For a man with a fantastic Wrestling pedigree he barely ever uses it and loves nothing more than a pure slugfest, as a fight fan it makes for a great night if he’s on the card. He gets the perfect dance partner here in Rafael Fiziev who himself is a fantastic striker and has no fear in standing and trading with anyone.
Gaethje’s only losses in the past 4 years have come to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira, he mixes in elite company and comes forward constantly, so many times during a fight he will look wobbled only to land a booming right hand that sends his opponent reeling back. There’s no doubt that he could cause Fiziev real problems here.
Fiziev comes in to the fight on a 5 fight win streak and in his last fight against former champ Rafael Dos Anjos he looked like a fighter on the charge to the top of the division. His striking is sharp and his movement is intelligent and I feel he’ll have enough to continue his rise up the rankings by getting his hand raised here. I’m going to include him in my accumulator for the card and I do not see this fight going to the judges!
The Rest of The Card
As ever with a card in the UK there is a raft of homegrown talent filling up the card and I’ve picked out a few to add to Fiziev for my accumulator.
Lerone Murphy was scheduled to fight Nathaniel Wood in what would have been one of the finest domestic fights in UFC history, unfortunately Wood suffered an injury in training and Murphy now gets matched with the undefeated Gabriel Santos making his UFC debut. Murphy is such a great story and has overcome so much adversity in his life (we’re only a couple of years removed from him being close to death after being hit by a car) and is undefeated in the UFC so far and I don’t see that changing here and I think he’s great value for the win.
Chris Duncan (not to be confused with Christian Duncan, also on the card) makes his UFC debut following a win on Dana White’s contender series and “The Problem” is talking of bonus money already, anyone who saw that DWCS fight or any of his Bellator fights know that the Scot is an entertaining scrapper and I can see him making an impression here for the Scots who will not doubt be in the o2 in their numbers and taking care of Omar Morales.
And the Scots will again be loud as Scottish born Casey O’Neill looks to move her MMA record to 10-0 in a tough matchup for the Australian based fighter against Jennifer Maia. O’Neill has improved with each visit to the Octagon and with the division wide open now that Alexa Grasso has dethroned Valentina Shevchenko O’Neill might only be a good performance or two away from being right in the title mix. That journey should continue here.
Best Bets:
(all prices correct with BinkBet as of 9pm Friday. Keep an eye out on the Socials for any boosts – both landed last time out):
1. Leon Edwards by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission – BinkBet Boost 11/2
2. Acca: Fiziev, O’Neill, Chris Duncan and Murphy all to win 11/2
Enjoy the Fights!
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