By Michael Douglas
The UFC returns to the T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas with a fantastic card for us to delve into!
The headline is the return of Jon “Bones” Jones, the man who at 23 years old conquered the Light heavyweight division and then went on one of the most dominant championship runs in UFC history, never losing that belt. The intrigue around this return comes from it being at Heavyweight, Jones has spent the past 3 years getting ready for this step up but can he translate the dominance at the division below now he’s mixing with the baddest men on the planet!
Let’s have a look at some of the feature bouts and pick out some bets for what is a must watch card starting a string of excellent events for the company.
Main Event – Heavyweight Championship – Cyril Gane v Jon Jones
At time of writing we were yet to get through official weigh-ins so hopefully nothing strange happens (It’s a Jon Jones fight week so nothing is impossible, this coming from a guy who travelled to Las Vegas for UFC 200 and when I boarded my flight from NY the main event was Jones v Cormier and when I landed the fight was off!) but all the signs look good that Jones is keeping at bay his demons and is ready for his long awaited Heavyweight debut with a tilt at the title no less!
For many MMA fans (me included) Jones is the GOAT, his run as Light Heavyweight Champion was sensational and it almost felt like he was bored by the end of his time in the division. Now can he transition to Heavyweight and take down a man who comes from the new breed of MMA fighters inspired by Jones
The elephant (not) in the room here is Francis N’Gannou, the man who relinquished the Heavyweight belt to seek riches elsewhere (possibly boxing) looms large here because this time last year he defeated Gane for the title but don’t expect the UFC to utter his name this weekend on the broadcast. Since that bout Gane bounced back with a stoppage of big punching Tai Tuivasa and the close nature of the N’Gannou fight means Gane deserves the position he’s in here. He doesn’t possess the one punch knockout power of other heavyweights but for a HW his movement is insane, so light on his feet and he will look to pick Jones apart on the feet and wear him down. The one thing Gane does not want is this fight heading to the floor, we saw in the N’Gannou fight that if you can get on top of Gane it’s a clear path to a victory over him.
Jones doesn’t have many weaknesses, he has the longest reach of any UFC fighter ever so range is always a weapon for him, his kicks are dangerous and if he needs to he can wrestle with the best of them. The wrestling seems the obvious path to victory here for Jones and I can see him reverting to that and getting a finish via ground and pound or submission. I’ll be including Jones in a multi and may have a small bet on him getting the stoppage with BinkBet’s Winning Method Double Chance at 19/10 to cover KO/TKO/DQ and submission.
The whole caveat to this is how the extra 40 or so pounds affects Jones skillset, have the years off reenergised him or slowed him down? How will he react when he gets caught by a big shot from a bigger man? I cannot wait to get the answers to these questions this weekend. And as a Jones fanboy I really hope we see the next chapter begin for the GOAT!
Co-Main Event – Womens Flyweight Championship – Valentina Shevchenko v Alexa Grasso
The domination that Jones held over his division in the 2010’s is exactly what Valentina Shevchenko is doing to her division in the 2020’s. Shevchenko seeks to become the first UFC champion to fill up the new belt with rubies (for those unaware the legacy belts introduced in 2019 have 8 segments where you add a Ruby for each successful defence of your title). At this point it genuinely seems like the biggest danger to Shevchenko is complacency, this week though she has had a lot of questions about future opponents like rising stars Erin Blanchfield and Casey O’Neill but Shevchenko dismissed them focusing only on this fight. I think we see a dominant performance from the champion and a stoppage.
Grasso comes in riding a 4 fight win streak and there is no doubt that her boxing style matches up well with anyone. I’m just not sure she is well rounded enough to really test the champ, that traditional Mexican fighting spirit means we may see a war as long as this fight is going but again it would be a monumental shock if the 5/1 underdog saw the belt around her waist at the end of the evening.
The Rest of The Card
Amazingly at 1/8 Shevchenko isn’t even the biggest favourite on the card. That distinction goes to a man making his UFC debut! Bo Nickal was a standout collegiate wrestler and has come through Dana White’s Contender Series and makes his bow in the opening fight of the main card. The fact he has this position tells you how highly the UFC rate this guy and I’ll be taking a watching brief to see if the hype is real and we have a future contender on our hands in the shape of 1/20 shot Bo Nickal.
My favourite underdog on this card is Derek Brunson who fights Dricus Du Plessis on the prelims. Du Plessis comes in after a win against Darren Till that certainly showed the holes in his game. He gassed out badly in that fight and was very lucky Till did not take full advantage. I think Du Plessis is a bit one dimensional and the experience of Brunson can cause him issues here so I’ll have a bit of the 9/5 available on Brunson to halt the momentum of the South African.
Shavkat Rakhmonov is a man going places in the UFC and he faces his toughest test yet in Geoff Neal. Neal brings KO power but Rakhmonov is fearless and super intelligent in the Octagon and I think he can avoid the big shot and come through this test and move closer to the title picture. Another fight to sit back and enjoy here on this very strong line-up.
As well as Jones I will be including Cody Garbrandt, Mateusz Gamrot, Ian Garry and Marc-Andre Barriault in our favourites acca for this event.
Garbrandt is million miles away from the man who dethroned Dominik Cruz in 2016 but is still in his early 30’s and I think he can get his first win in a few years against Trevin Jones on the prelims. Some time away should hopefully have done him some good as he looks to make one last big UFC run.
Mateusz Gamrot has taken this fight against the awkward Jalin Turner on a few week’s notice but I think he has enough to bounce back from a defeat last time out and should have the grappling skills to deal with Turner. He will be determined to make a statement after having his momentum disrupted and I think he justifies favouritism here.
Ian Garry, the other Irish fighter on the UFC roster (can you believe that’s actually true?!) should have plenty in hand to take care of Kenan Song, he’s a heavy heavy favourite and deservedly so as he looks to push his record to 11-0. Garry could be good value to get the stoppage but his last two fights went the distance so let’s play it safe and take him at big odds on just to win.
Finally I’m picking Marc Andre Barriault to bounce back from a loss last time out as he faces Julien Marquez who is in the same situation. This could probably go either way but I think Barriault has shown more in his time in the UFC to make me believe he can evolve so I think he gets his hand raised here.
Best Bets:
1. Jon Jones by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission – Was 2.90... Now 4.00 (BinkBet Special)
2. Underdog Bet– Derek Brunson to win – 2.80
3. Boosted Accumulator: Was 6.51... Now 8.00 (BinkBet Special)
Jones, Gamrot, Garbrandt, Garry and Barriault all to win
Enjoy the Fights!
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