By Michael Douglas
UFC 284 takes place in Perth, Australia in the early hours of Sunday morning and for the first time ever the fighters ranked Pound-for-Pound #1 and #2 will clash in the main event. Alex Volkanovksi, the UFC Featherweight Champion, steps up to Lightweight to take on the Champion Islam Mackhachev. The co-main serves up a Featherweight Interim Title fight to keep Volkanovski’s division moving as Yair Rodriguez battles Josh Emmett.
Let’s have a look at some of the feature bouts and pick out some bets and get 2023 going with some profit.
Main Event – Lightweight Championship – Islam Makhachev (C) v Alexander Volkanovski
The UFC lack of promotion for this fight in the past couple of weeks has been incredibly strange (too busy promoting ridiculous new “fight” sports perhaps?) but don’t let that put you off. This is truly an elite level matchup with the Lightweight title on the line and Volkanovksi’s crown of pound-for-pound best fighter on the planet also at stake.
Volkanovksi looks better every single time the Octagon door closes, the Featherweight Champ is 12-0 in the UFC and aside from one crazy round against Brian Ortega and a razor thin decision in the 2nd fight of his trilogy with Max Holloway he hasn’t really looked like being beaten. Volkanovski is looking to cement a legacy in the sport now and on home soil he faces quite literally his biggest challenge yet.
Makhachev has ploughed through the Lightweight ranks and dominated Charles Oliveira to claim the belt late last year. His striking is dangerous and if he can get you to the ground it can be the beginning of the end with his relentless pressure, top control and ground and pound leading to a stoppage or opening the door for a submission as he showed against Oliveira. Makhachev’s only UFC defeat came in just his 2nd bout with the organisation back in 2015 and he has rattled off 11 successive wins since.
Volkanovski’s footwork and technique in the standing exchanges is as good as anyone alive and he needs to keep this fight on the feet and at a distance as long as possible. I feel his plan will be to get in, land those quick combos that finish with hard leg kicks, and get out and on the move again. As seen at the weigh-in on Friday Makhachev has a decent height advantage but Volk actually has the longer reach. Avoid the takedown and he has a real chance.
Make no mistake, Volkanovski has to be perfect in this fight. One mistake and he could find himself flat on his back or his face carrying the weight of the Dagestani fighter. A huge key to the fight could be his ability to get back to the feet if he does get taken down.
Makhachev is a 1/4 favourite in this fight but I’m actually willing to take him on. Volkanovski doesn’t have the added weight cut issue so should be very comfortable carrying the extra 10lbs at 155 (he played pro Rugby League and weighed 200lbs) and he will have an arena full of support in his own back yard that will spur him on. As I said he needs to be perfect and I think he will be and win 3 of the 5 rounds at least on his way to a decision. He doesn’t get tired and we’ll see if Islam can match the pace the Aussie will set. The pound-for-pound #1 fighter in the world is 3/1 to win a fight and to me that is impossible value to turn down making Volkanovski my big Underdog play for this event.
Co-Main Event – Interim Featherweight Championship – Yair Rodriguez v Josh Emmett
The division Volkanovski reigns over isn’t standing still so whatever the result of the main event his next Featherweight challenger will be determined in this Interim title bout. They say styles make fights and this should be a cracker if so.
Rodriguez is a wonderfully creative striker, he finds angles to land strikes and can unleash jumping or spinning attacks in the blink of an eye. Just look up his last second KO of Chang Sung Jung via an elbow thrown upwards after ducking a shot for the perfect example. Emmett is a power striker whose technique is faultless, he has a high and tight guard and a fantastic jab that opens up the power shots, as traditional a style as can be. This should be a back and forth battle and I’m finding it really difficult to pick a winner.
I think in the end that Emmett will do just enough to earn a decision win. Both of these guys are super durable so getting a finish for either may prove difficult. Rodriguez has only been stopped once in 9 years due to a cut against Frankie Edgar , similarly Emmett only has one stoppage loss and has been through wars with the likes of Shane Burgos so as part of a favourites accumulator I will throw in the fight to go the distance here.
The Rest of The Card
My focus for the rest of the card will be on some of the Aussie based fighters who will be looking to make an impression on home soil and in the spirit of UFC London last March I think they could get on a roll with a buzzing crowd.
Jack Della Maddalena has won his last 3 fights in Round 1 and faces a step up in quality against Randy Brown but I’m backing him to carry on the winning streak and hopefully he delivers those fireworks once again.
Jimmy Crute hasn’t fought since December 2021 when he lost to Jamahal Hill who last month claimed the Light-Heavyweight Championship. He faces Alonzo Menifield and will be hoping to get the main card off to a flyer. I’m banking on him having used the time away to improve and come back with a bang with a similar performance to the last time he fought on home soil in 2019 against Sam Alvey (Round 1 TKO).
Tyson Pedro headlines the prelims and faces a short notice opponent in Modestas Bukauskas. The British based Lithuanian had a 1-3 run in his first stint with the UFC but has since picked up a couple of wins in Cage Warriors and steps in here at short notice so will be hoping to land the big shot that ends this early. Pedro should have more than enough to get the W here though, he won both his fights in 2022 after a 3 year absence from the Octagon and I think he continues that run here.
Finally for our accumulator I’m diving in to the early prelims and another Aussie as Lightweight Jamie Mullarkey looks to build on a fantastic win last time out over Michael Johnson when he takes on UFC newcomer Francisco Prado. The undefeated Argentine is very much an unknown quantity so this might not be the safest favourite pick but Mullarkey looked so improved against Johnson and I have to believe he’ll have enough to score the win again here.
Best Bets (all prices correct with BinkBet):
Alexander Volkanovski to win – 3/1
Accumulator - 13/2
Mullarkey to win
Pedro to win
Crute to win
Della Maddalena to win
Rodriguez v Emmett to go the Distance
Boosted Acca - 11/4 > 7/2 (BinkBet Special)
Mullarkey, Pedro, Crute and Maddalena all to win
Enjoy the Fights!
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