By Michael Douglas
So the final numbered event of the year comes in the week we get the good news that London will host a numbered event in the shape of March’s UFC 286 (but the bad news that it’s not the rumoured stadium show). If you’re up late celebrating or drowning your sorrows there’s some great fights to check out in the early hours of Sunday.
Back to the UFC’s home in Vegas for the final big card of the year and an interesting line-up with some real young blood filling the early part of the card and an intriguing contest promoted at short notice to the headliner for the Light Heavyweight Title.
Let’s have a look at some of the feature bouts and pick out some bets and see if we can recover from the UFC 282 wipeout! And no, I still haven’t forgiven Israel Adesanya for letting the guard down in that final round!
Main Event – Light Heavyweight Championship – Jan Blachowicz v Magomed Ankalaev
Just over two weeks ago this main event was scheduled to be Jiri Prochazka defending his newly won LHW belt against the man he dethroned – Glover Teixeira. Well Prochazka suffered a bad injury and the UFC looked to match Teixeira with Magomed Ankalaev. Due to the short notice Teixeira passed on the new opponent and now we end up here with the originally scheduled fight between Ankalaev and Blachowicz now promoted to Main Event and for the belt.
Ankalaev is rightly favoured here , his only UFC loss was on his UFC debut to Scotland’s Paul Craig in March 2018 in a fight he was almost certainly about to win before getting trapped in a last second submission (literally the last second by the way, 4:59 of Round 3). Since then he has rattled off 9 straight wins and comes into this off the back of a very impressive stoppage of Anthony Smith at UFC 277 in July.
Blachowicz is as experienced as they come having had 18 UFC fights in his 29 fight career, he knows the feeling of having that belt around his waist and there is no danger of him getting any big fight nerves. I fear his time has passed though and I’m not sure how he can stop Ankalaev imposing his will in this fight, he definitely needs to keep the fight standing and hope he can pick Ankalaev apart on the feet and maybe look to squeak out a decision win.
For Ankalaev the gameplan is simple, put Blachowicz on his back and ground and pound until the ref steps in or wait for the submission opportunity to present itself. The Dagestani style made famous by Khabib Nurmagomedov is being taken to new heights by Ankalaev and recently crowned Lightweight Champ Islam Mackhachev.
I’ll be including Ankalaev in a favourites acca but I’m also going to have a small play on Ankalaev in Round 1.
Co-Main Event – Lightweight – Paddy Pimblett v Jared Gordon
Paddy the Baddy has the eyes of the MMA world on him here as he Co-main events a big Las Vegas PPV card for the first time and as ever he has been very vocal this week on how confident he is of an easy victory over Jared Gordon.
Now as a character and fighter I have loved watching Pimblett since his days in Cage Warriors MMA in the UK and in all his UFC performances so far he has certainly entertained, looking like losing until pulling out some big shots and getting the finish however I believe he is far too short this evening against Jared Gordon who is as tough as they come.
Jared Gordon has the exact style it takes to overcome Pimblett. He is a high output, pressure fighter and if required he has top notch wrestling to lean on, for many years the big weakness of the UK MMA fighter. Pimblett is so good to watch because he gets himself in trouble and then overcomes adversity to come out on top but I think Gordon can lean on that wrestling when Paddy makes his moves so I’m going with my head (and wallet) over my heart here by taking the price on Gordon to win by decision.
The Rest of The Card
I’m jumping all over another Underdog in the opening fight of the main card as Bryce Mitchell takes on Ilia Topuria in a battle of young undefeated contenders at Featherweight. Mitchell has evolved before our eyes with each fight and I think his cardio gives him a slight edge over the power style of Topuria who notoriously struggles with the weight cut. Mitchell just doesn’t stop and it would be no surprise to see his hand raised here as I think he can outlast Topuria.
For the rest of my favourites acca I’m once again going with head over heart as I back Dricus Du Plessis to take out Darren Till. It’s great to see Till back in the Octagon but he has taken on a massive task in this ferocious South African striker and having seen Till succumb to strikers in his most recent Octagon outings I struggle to see any other outcome in this one.
I’ll also throw in Edmen Shahbazyan in a Prelim fight, looking to break a 3 fight losing streak I think this is a good matchup for him to get back in the win column as he should have too much for Dalcha Lungiambula who is also on a 3 fight skid.
Finally for the acca we’ll stay in the Prelims and go to the early part of the card as Billy Quarantillo takes on Alexander Hernandez. Hernandez burst onto the scene with wins over Beneil Dariush and Olivier Aubin-Mercier (Conquerer of Stevie Ray in the recent PFL finals) but has since alternated wins and losses and failed to build any momentum. He tends to start fast and fade and that’s why I think Billy Q gets the better of him here. It takes something very special to get Quarantillo out of a fight early and he seems to get better the longer a fight goes, I can see him winning a decision here or even getting a stoppage late in the fight.
Best Bets (all prices correct with BinkBet as of 13:15 Saturday)
Jared Gordon Decision Win – 11/4
Favourite Multi – Ankalaev, Du Plessis, Shahbayzyan & Quarantillo – 4.12/1
Bryce Mitchell Win – 13/10
Ankalaev win Round 1 – 15/4
Be nice to finish the year with a few winners, Enjoy the Fights!
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