By Michael Douglas
Every November the UFC returns to New York City and the hallowed ground of Madison Square Garden. The Mecca of Combat Sports has seen it’s fair share of incredible moments over the years and even in the short time since Mixed Martial Arts was again legal in New York (only 6 years) these events have produced some memorable scenes such as Conor McGregor’s crowning as double champ in 2016 or the legend Georges St-Pierre coming out of retirement to dominate Michael Bisping and claim the Middleweight Title.
In 2023 it’s again the Middleweight Belt that headlines a solid card of action so let’s take a look at some key matchups and pick out some best bets.
Main Event – Middleweight Championship – Israel Adesanya(C) v Alex Pereira
This fight has a brilliant back story that the UFC have played up perfectly. Adesanya is undefeated at Middleweight as a Mixed Martial Artist, his only loss was when moving up to Light-Heavyweight to challenge Jan Blachowicz where he lost via decision, and is as dominant a champion as there is today. However he has previous with his challenger as Alex Pereira holds two victories over Adesanya from their Kickboxing days and this has formed the foundation of the build-up to this fight.
Adesanya is the complete fighter, he is fluid when moving around the Octagon and never seems to put himself in extreme danger as he picks apart his opponents on the feet while being just as comfortable in the grappling game. He meticulously studies his opponents and always seems to know the best route to a successful defence of his title.
Pereira knows a feeling that no-one else does, victory over Adesanya, and hone of those wins was by KO. His strength is his incredibly heavy striking as 5 of his 6 MMA wins have come via KO/TKO and that has to be his best chance again here as if he lands on anyone they are in big trouble. His only loss was in his very first MMA bout and he comes into this fight off the back of a spectacular KO of the dangerous Sean Strickland.
This is not kickboxing only however and I think Adesanya uses the full range of skills to avoid the big shot and walk away with the belt still around his waist. I like the 5/4 for him to win by decision, Adesanya to win will be part of a favourites multi in my best bets
Co-Main Event – Women’s Strawweight Championship – Carla Esparza (C) v Zhang Weili
Carla Esparza is a two-time Strawweight Champion but I think her style doesn’t grab the casual fan. A very technical grappler Esparza gets her opponents to the floor and controls them, effective when trying to win a fight but put her at the top of a card and there may not be a clamour for tickets.
This game is about winning though and coming off the back of her win against “Thug” Rose Namajunas she again enters a title fight as a huge underdog against the former champion Zhang Weili. Esparza will know exactly what she needs to do to upset the odds, if she manages to do it this won’t be the prettiest fight to watch.
Weili is a vicious dynamic striker and averages 5.78 significant strikes per minute compared to 2.2 for Esparza. Her takedown defence has improved overall, 60% of takedowns defended, and if she keeps the fight standing the opportunity will present itself to finish the fight. I firmly believe this will happen and will be including her in my across the card multi to win by stoppage at 10/11.
The Rest of The Card
The middle fight on the main card has all the makings of a Fight of the Night contender as Michael Chandler faces Dustin Poirier, both of these guys hit incredibly hard and love to stand and trade shots, you could drop an old-school phone box into the middle of the octagon and these two would happily jump in and fight the whole fight in there.
Chandler has looked susceptible to the big shot in his losses to Justin Gaethje and Charles Oliveira but has shown his own power in wins over Dan Hooker and Tony Ferguson. What we haven’t seen yet in his UFC career is the elite level wrestling that he possesses and I believe utilising this might hold the key to a victory.
Poirier has been operating at the top level of the Lightweight division for what feels like forever, two wins over Conor McGregor plus wins over Max Holloway and Justin Gaethje headline a storied career. He may be the best lightweight to never call himself UFC Champion (he did hold the interim belt in 2019 before losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov in his tilt at the actual title). If this fight descends into a stand-up brawl Poirier will relish it, he has a sturdy chin and will fancy doing what Gaethje and Oliveira did previously to Chandler.
I think these two are more closely matched than the oddsmakers do and I think that 9/5 is excellent value for Michael Chandler in what could be a coin flip over who lands the big shot first. Having that wrestling in his locker could allow him to control where the fight takes place so I’m taking Chandler as my underdog of the card.
Worth mentioning that the great Frankie Edgar, former Lightweight Champion who first fought for the UFC at UFC 67, is fighting for the last time as he announced his retirement. Getting to bow out just down the road from his home state of New Jersey is a great thing for a great fighter and in facing Chris Gutierrez he is definitely not taking the easy way out!
I’d love to see Frankie go out with a W but recently he’s shown weakness to strikes and I think Gutierrez exposes that and will be part of my favourites multi. Expect an emotional post-fight interview from Edgar no matter the outcome.
The last leg of that multi will be Dan Hooker who opens the main card facing Claudio Puelles. Hooker has a few recent losses but that’s been to elite level fighters and I think he should have too much for Puelles who has yet to face anyone near that level in his recent 5 fight win streak and a win over the aging Clay Guida in his previous bout does not give me any reason to go against Hooker who gets back on track here.
Until yesterday that was all I fancied on this card but I’m going to have one small sentimental play on Molly McCann in the Prelims. She is a heavy underdog against elite grappler Erin Blanchfield but after listening to an interview with Molly last night I’m convinced she isn’t the 3/1 underdog that is available on her. She is riding the crest of a wave after unbelievable KO wins on both London cards this year and hearing her talk about the grapplers that she’s trained with and her fight prep has me buying in.
The Next Gen MMA gym in Liverpool is on a roll just now with McCann and Paddy Pimblett garnering more and more attention. Hopefully that continues with an upset victory for “Meatball” Molly here.
Best Bets:
Michael Chandler Win – 9/5
Accumulator – Adesanya, Weili, Gutierrez & Hooker – 3.43/1
Molly McCann win – 3/1
Thanks for checking out this preview and hopefully we can land a winner or two, enjoy the fights!!
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