By Michael Douglas
This weekend sees that rare beast for those of us in the UK, a numbered UFC event that starts in UK Prime Time (For those new to the world leader in Mixed Martial Arts, one of the fastest growing sports in the world, the numbered events are the marquee cards shown on PPV in the USA as opposed to the Fight Night events which go out on TV for free.) UFC’s broadcaster in the UK, BT Sport, have taken advantage of this situation and the main card will go out on BT Sport Box Office starting at 7pm this Saturday night.
The card is a strong one and is headlined by 2 title fights. In the co-main event Aljamain Sterling defends his Bantamweight strap against former champion TJ Dillashaw and in the main event Islam Makhachev takes on Charles Oliveira for the vacant UFC Lightweight Title. The event takes place in Abu Dhabi which is why the start time is so favourable for European UFC fans.
So lets have a look at both Title fights along with some of the other key matchups and try to identify some best bets in a sport where underdogs have their day on a very regular basis.
Main Event – Lightweight Championship – Islam Makhachev v Charles Oliveira
As weigh-in day for UFC 274 approached Charles Oliveira was the UFC Lightweight Champion and on a win streak for the ages. Unfortunately Oliveira missed the Championship weight of 155lbs by 0.5lbs. He was immediately stripped of the title and his fight with Justin Gaethje took place with only Gaethje eligible to win the belt. Oliveira’s win streak continued but the belt remains vacant. So now he tries to reclaim the belt he never lost but he faces quite the challenge in order to do so.
Oliveira should not be written off in this fight, he has faced, and defeated, the higher quality of opposition in his UFC career and has a real point to prove after the events of UFC 274. He is an incredibly dangerous striker and when taken down to the mat is capable of trapping an opponent in a submission. He comes in to this event on an 11 fight winning streak and is entering the conversation over who is the greatest lightweight of all-time.
Islam Makhachev is a protégé of the great Khabib Nurmagomedov and possesses that similar ground and pound style rooted in the Wrestling/Sambo fighting style, he can take an opponent to the ground at will and comes into this fight on the back of 10 straight wins.
At time of writing Makhachev is a very slight favourite to win the title. I tend to agree with the oddsmakers on this but I’m more interested in the method of victory as I believe he can stop Oliveira in a 5 round fight, Makhachev’s style is to grind down his opponent, smother them and beat them down until the ref steps in. This is his first title fight and facing an opponent of the calibre of Oliveira who is a very dangerous submission artist he may need to be a little more cautious than usual. For that reason I think Makhachev may need to wait until the 4th or 5th round to get the finish and I love the big prices available for him to do so. I’m happy to cover the decision win as well as Oliveira may not be an easy out.
Best bets
Makhachev via KO, TKO, DQ or Submission – 11/10
Makhachev in Round 4 – 16/1
Makhachev in Round 5 – 25/1
Co-Main Event – Bantamweight Championship – Aljamain Sterling (C) v TJ Dillashaw
Whether TJ Dillashaw deserves this title shot off the back of one win following his return to the sport after serving a 2 year ban for a failed drugs test is up for debate but deserving or not he is the one who will stand opposite the Champ on Saturday and attempt to wrest the belt from him.
Dillashaw’s only fight since 2019 was a split decision win against the tough Cory Sandhagen and re-watching that fight this week hasn’t given me the belief that he has the tools to dethrone Aljamain Sterling. Dillashaw is an excellent striker and his heavy hands may be the key to his success on Saturday, his only two recent losses were to future hall of famers Dominik Cruz in 2016 and Henry Cejudo in 2019.
Sterling had his doubters when he won the belt from Petr Yan in 2020 after Yan was disqualified for an illegal knee strike leaving Sterling unable to continue. In their rematch Sterling proved the doubters wrong as he dominated the fight and won a split decision. Sterling is not the flashiest of fighters, he prefers the grappling side of the sport and may never be a fans favourite due to that style.
Sterling will look to avoid the concussive power of Dillashaw and put him on his back for the majority of this fight. I think he gets this done, his timing on takedowns looks better in every fight and is truly elite, so I can see a dominant victory but the question becomes can he get the finish and make this a true highlight performance? I don’t think so and therefore the only bet for me in this fight is a Sterling points win.
Best Bet
Sterling by Decision – 6/4
The Rest of The Card
I’m going to focus on the feature non-title fight and my favourite underdog across the rest of the main card.
The aforementioned Petr Yan returns to the Octagon at UFC 280 and faces the young superstar Sean O’Malley in a feature bout. This is a massive step up in class for O’Malley and while it could be the Conor McGregor style breakthrough performance I just can’t see anything other than a Yan victory and as in the co-main event it feels like a points win looks the best value. With that I will also be playing a decision double along with Aljamain Sterling.
My favourite underdog on this card is Beneil Dariush who faces the Polish power of Mateusz Gamrot. There’s no doubt that Gamrot is a fantastic all round fighter having UFC wins by TKO, submission and Decision across his 4 UFC wins but I think this step up in class might be a touch too soon for him. Dariush is riding a 7 fight win streak and is an elite level wrestler who tends to control where the fight takes place, his most recent win against Tony Ferguson showed that he excels in the role of spoiler and I love the 13/8 available for him to win the fight.
Best Bets
Yan Decision win – 21/20
Decision Double – Sterling and Yan – 4/1
Beneil Dariush to win fight – 13/8
Thanks for checking out this preview, and I hope you enjoy the fights!
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