By Sam Cook
Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) @ Houston Texans (1-1-5)
Thursday Night Football’s back and the schedule has returned to giving us a poor matchup for the neutrals after last week’s Pass Vs Rush showdown between the Buccs and the Ravens. This week is a pass and rush team against a nothing team really. The unbeaten Eagles roll into Houston as the only side with a perfect record with their hosts, the Texans, almost a polar opposite with the 2nd worst record in football. The Eagles are priced as short as 1/9 and the handicap is a 2 touchdown spread of -13.5 so we’ll have to find value in other markets. Will the Texans land the biggest upset so far in a year full of upsets or will the Eagles keep the dream of a perfect season alive?
We’ll start with the Eagles because there’s so much to say about how good this team is and especially how fun they are to watch. Jalen Hurts is experiencing a breakout 3rd season, much like Josh Allen did in 2020, and the Eagle’s star is reminiscent in that he’s a brilliant dual threat quarterback. He leads the team in rushing TDs whilst putting up career best passing numbers. They came into the season having the second easiest strength of schedule (uses the 2021 winning percentage of opponents to indicate who plays historically weak/strong teams) so it’s no surprise to see them unbeaten however in their toughest tests they’ve stepped up. They’ve handed Minnesota (6-1) their only loss and also doubled down on their first place in the NFC East by beating divisional rivals the Cowboys (6-2) to hand them only their second loss. If you plan on staying up come Thursday night then it’ll likely only be to watch the brilliance of these men in green.
After that high praise and adoration for the Eagles we come to the lowly Texans. It’s hard to be positive if you support any AFC South team but the Houston side is one of the worst in the league with very little to get excited about. Their opening day draw vs the Colts gave them hope but in reality it turns out the Colts just aren’t good either. Three straight losses followed including two to the low scoring Bears and Broncos before they secured victory against divisional side the Jags. A 13-6 victory in which they were out yarded 422-248 wasn’t exactly convincing and their two losses since including another divisional game vs Malik Willis rookie QB led Titans have dampened any hopes of a positive season. The one highlight to look out for in this game would be any progression from 2nd year third rounder Davis Mills, but more importantly rookie Dameon Pierce. He’s proved to be dynamic and makes a terrible team look half decent at times. It was his touchdown in week 5 that secured them their sole win however even if he scored 2 TDs this week I don’t think it will be enough to beat the high flying Eagles.
The Eagles offence is the 3rd highest scoring team in football averaging 28 PPG and also 3rd for total yardage clocking just under 400 yards (395.4YPG)- only the Chiefs and Bills are ahead in these stats. What’s most impressive about Philly though is that they rank top 10 for both rushing and passing whereas neither the Bills or Chiefs feature in both top 10 rankings. In fact the only other sides top 10 for passing and rushing YPG are the Saints (3-5) and the worst team in football Lions (1-6) which foreshadows the fact that the Eagles also have a very solid defence in order to not just score lots of points, but to avoid shipping lots of points. Sitting 10th for pass YPG (245.9) and 6th for rush (149.6) Jalen Hurts is central to both. He’s averaging 257 pass YPG and holds the 2nd best TD to INT rate of 10-2 behind only Brady (9-1) whilst also putting up 43.3 rushing yards a game. More impressive are his 6 rushing TDs, the most among QBs, with the Eagles actually leading the league for rushing TDs averaging 2 a game for 14 total. Key stats for Hurts to look for in the betting would be his overs on rushing attempts because he’s carried the ball 79 times (over 11 a game) but a lowly 3.8 YPC suggests attempts will be a more valuable market than yards. Anything below 10 will be a bet but lines aren’t available at time of writing. In terms of passing he actually comes up against a team with an average pass yards allowed. Sitting 16th the Texans allow only 217.6 but attempt the 7th fewest passes at 31.5. That lines up with Hurt’s average of 30.3 throws per game completing 20.3- a completion percentage of 67% which is up from 61.3% last season highlighting the huge step he’s made. His average of 8.5 yards per pass will challenge a Texans secondary that’s skewed it’s stats on account of playing Fields and Malik Willis. When you remove their subpar passing performances from the Texans defensive record they actually allow 272.2 passing yards per game- that would be 5th worst so a big passing game could be on the cards.
Benefitting from a solid passing performance would be offseason recruit AJ Brown who is coming off the back of a 3 TD game against the Steelers. Brown has transformed Hurts, similar to Diggs and Allen, and he has the 6th most yards notching up 94.1 per game. His 659 receiving yards represents 47.38% of the teams air yards (leads the league)- given that Hurts has almost 1800 passing yards this doesn’t add up at first glance in terms of equating to 47.38% of 1799. However air yards are simply how far the pass travelled, it's yards after the catch where Brown is even more freakish. He racks up a league leading 6.7 yards after the catch per reception. This is in part because he is an elite route runner and finds space but with an expected YAC per reception of only 4.9 this highlights how physical he gets with cornerbacks, achieving an extra 1.8 yards per catch across his 39 this season. The other YAC monster in the team is TE Dallas Goedert who has 32 catches on 41 targets averaging 13.2 YPC on account of his 2.4 YAC over the expected rate. He’s even better at getting physical than Brown and this has shown recently with an average of 63.25 yards per game in his last 4. If you take out his performance against the Cowboys (3rd best pass defence) then he actually averages 77 YPG across his last 3. He’s certainly a man to target for overs on yardage given he’s priced at just an over/under of 45.5. Hammer this over would be my advice. Devonta Smith is worth accounting for but doesn’t catch the eye to the level of Brown and Goedert catching 38/51 showing he’s more effective at the catch point than Brown (39/64) but he’s only turned those catches into 420 yards (11.1 YPC compared to Browns 16.9).
I’m going to do a 3rd paragraph on this Eagle’s offence because it is that good and there’s so much to talk about, also because there’s so little to talk about for the Texans. We’ve analysed Hurts from a passing point and rushing, and then his receivers as well but we haven’t looked at the run game on a whole which is led by Miles Sanders. As earlier mentioned it averages 149.6 yards per game ranking 6th but this is on account of volume- 35 rushes per game the 2nd highest in the league. Their YPC rate of only 4.3 ranks 20th with Miles Sanders racking up 16.2 carries a game for a total of 563 yards. His 80 YPG average is 5th best and he’s racked up 5 rushing TDs (Hurts takes some goalline opportunities away). What’s brilliant about the Eagles run game on Thursday night though is that they will face the worst run D in the league. The Texans have shipped a ridiculous 186 rush yards per game at a rate of 5.6 YPC. Just on Sunday they allowed 303 rushing yards to Derrick Henry and co. Miles Sanders isn’t as concussive as Henry but he will put up big numbers. As mentioned his 80 YPG average is very good but that’s come whilst facing only 2 of the bottom 10 run defences in the league, so an opportunity to face the worst run D in the league is incredibly exciting. He’s clocked 70 yards in 5/7 games this season and I expect a second 100 yard game of the season on Thursday. The bookies have him priced at over/under 80.5 which is representative of his average this year, however he’s not playing an average defence so I think he’ll comfortably clear this. I have referenced the Texans defence in this article but if you want to see how truly bad it is then all stats will be shared in the stat pack which will be on site too.
The Texans offence is, as referenced, very sterile in contrast to the high powered Eagles. They’re quarterbacked by second year and third round pick Davis Mills. He has a tough task of getting positive plays out of a set of players that would potentially lose to some of the better college football teams, and as such they are the 4th lowest scorers with 16.6 PPG and the 31st ranked for total yardage- only 288.7 yards per game. This consists of being 25th rank for passing yards, 196.3, and 26th for rushing at only 92.4 yards per game. They are one of only two teams to feature in the bottom 10 for both statistics alongside the Steelers which isn't a good club to be in. Mills operates at 63.1% pass completion however stats suggest this should actually be 67.4% implying he’s being let down somewhat by his receivers, understandable given their unknown status to most NFL fans. The Texans are often behind and consequently Mills is required to pass a lot making 33.7 attempts per game recording an average completion of 6.4 yards and 8 TDs to 6 INTs. This sounds like a Davis Mills bashin paragraph but I actually think he’s incredibly underrated and is just let down by his situation. His biggest weapon, Brandin Cooks, wanted out during the trade window which has since closed leaving him stuck in Houston on seemingly unhappy terms. Cooks has the most targets on the team although it's only 53- he sees so much double coverage that Mills has had to resort to targeting 13 different players in order to try and find someone who can take up some slack and actually produce. The best of the rest, aside from Cooks 4.5 catches on 7.5 targets average for 354 yards, is Nico Collins who actually does average slightly more yards per game than Cooks at 50.8 YPG relative to 50.4 for Cooks. The key to Collins production is deep balls only catching 3 passes a game but for an average of 16.9 yards. Seven of his eighteen catches have been for 20 or more yards and he’s certainly a player to target on yardage rather than receptions. ***As I’m editing he’s been officially ruled out meaning Cooks will potentially even see double coverage plus a safety, or a linebacker may be brought in to blitz instead of cover- either way bad news for an already hopeless Texans.***. The best of the rest is TE Jordan Akins with a poor 2.8 targets a game catching 11/14. His yards per game is 31.8 so if the over/under is set low he’s one to consider (bookies pricing up late). It’s worth noting that O.J Howard has 2 TDs although both came on opening day and he’s only seen 13 targets total but with the bare bones receiving corps he’s maybe worth a minimal stakes punt for a TD at odds of 15/2, if the Texans can even get redzone field position.
The more exciting aspect of the Texans offence is the running game which is dominated by rookie Dameon Pierce. He’s recorded 121 of their 156 rushes and has clocked up 77 YPG with these 17 carries a game. This yardage per game was dented when he faced the Titans last week making only 35 yards from scrimmage which doesn’t reflect the rookie's power. In the four games prior he had run for a minimum for 80 yards and averaged 20 carries per game. Facing an Eagles defence that is far weaker at defending the rush than the pass he could profit. Those rushing defensive stats place the Eagles in 17th for rushing yards allowed at 114.7 YPG which is a fairly average stat however they offer up 5.1 YPC which is the 4th highest. This is generally because the Eagles are in front and teams take a passing approach however their pass defence is elite. In general they’re 4th for fewest points allowed (16.6 PPG), 4th for fewest yards allowed (298.4) and 4th for the fewest passing yards allowed (183.7). That passing defence is even more impressive considering they have 10 interceptions which is the second most in the league, which is almost 1.5 per game. Coupled with 23 sacks and the fact that Collins is out as well the Eagles will be rushing Mills plenty either forcing interceptions or getting him sacked. Hassan Reddick has 5.5 sacks so far and 2 fumble recoveries leading the team. A player I think is worth backing for tackles and assists is linebacker T.J. Edwards who has seen 68 tackles/assists across 7 games. His over/under of 8.5 at 21/20 (William Hill) represents value but the Eagles potential dominance concerns me that he may not see the field enough. I think it could well be a half point bet.
In general we’ve established the Eagles will clearly win but it’s hard to determine if they’ll be dominant enough to cover the 2 TD handicap line. Given both sides averages for points scored/allowed including average points over the last 3 (Texans 12 PPG Vs Eagles 24) I think the line could be hard to call. Instead I think value will be best found in Eagles over for points with over 29.5 at 4/5 sitting in line with the theme of the Eagles putting 35 points past the Steelers- the only other side to sit bottom 10 for both rushing and passing defence. In theory if the Texans do rank similar to the Steelers, and the Eagles perform even slightly below last week those 30 points will sail in. On account of me thinking the Eagles will clear 30 the over/under now comes down to how many I think the Texans will score. Ka’imi Fairbairn has made 13/15 field goals including 9/10 from 40 yards or further so I’d expect him to contribute at least 6 points. That leaves the Texans a TD shy of covering the over but I do think Pierce is capable of punishing an average running defence, as he has done all season, so for me the game will hit the over at a squeak with the Eagles covering the spread. My score prediction would be 34-13 which hasn’t been priced but should you request it will likely get priced around 125s. This would be a 50p stake at most with all the tips underneath being 1 point stakes unless otherwise stated. I’ve really struggled to narrow down the bets for tonight because I think the Eagles are low on almost all lines- as always the stats are in this article and the stat pack to aid your betting and try give you an advantage against the bookies but do so with caution and gamble responsibly.
Tips
Eagles over 29.5 points @4/5
Eagles -14.5 and over 44.5 points @5/2
TJ Edwards over 8.5 tackles/assists @21/20 (0.5 Points)
Dallas Goedert over 45.5 receiving yards @5/6 NAP
Pierce, Sanders & Hurts over 50+ rushing yards each @11/4
Goedert 50+ receiving yards, Brown 65+ receiving yards, Hurts & Pierce both 1+ rushing TD, Mills 1+ interception, Pierce 16+ rushing attempts, Sanders 75+ rush yards & Hurts 213+ passing yards @80/1 Bet Builder with Bet Victor- 0.25 Points.
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