By Sam Cook
Tennessee Titans (6-3) @ Green Bay Packers (4-6)
This week’s Thursday Night Football game sees two teams coming into the head to head off the back of impressive wins, The visiting Titans responded to going 10-0 down with 17 unanswered points seeing off the Broncos handily limiting them to only 96 yards in the second half. The Packers didn’t perform as dominantly but beat far superior opposition in the shape of the Dallas Cowboys with an overtime victory. This snapped a 5 game losing streak, the first that QB Aaron Rodgers had experienced since 2008 and he performed to his MVP level rin the process recording a 70% pass completion and 3 TDs. Home field advantage is what the bookies are using to split these teams with the Packers 3.5 point favourites. It’s worth noting that they’re 21/20 at that handicap and the Titans 4/5 with that 3.5 point head start, so realistically the game is incredibly close in the bookmakers eyes. What they do expect though is a low scoring game, which would tie in with a close affair, with the over/under for points set at only 40.5. We’ll begin to break down each team's stats to try to unlock the answers of what to expect, and in particular where the value lies.
The Titans performed brilliantly from midway in the 2nd quarter onwards against Denver in their low scoring victory recording 6 sacks and forcing an interception to slow down a Broncos offence that had put 200 yards on them in the first half. This dominance has been a feature of the a Titans this season and although they don’t have an atypically elite all round defence they excel at certain elements, in particular limiting points conceding only 18.7 PPG which ranks 8th in the league. This is primarily built upon a staunch run defence that ranks 3rd for YPC allowed at only 3.9 and 2nd for fewest rush yards allowed per game at only 85.1. Their big guys up front are elite at blocking and slowing the run and this will be key in defeating the Packers this week. In recent years the Packers have been a pass first team with a very good running back on the side, however the loss of Davante Adams has shaped them towards being a running offence- or at least they are in the games that they win. For too long this season the pass has been forced, which is reasonable given their QB is the reigning two time MVP, but it’s been agt the team’s expense with rookie receivers and a poor O-line costing them. Last week they reverted to a run heavy scheme utilising the superb Aaron Jones and complimenting him with the hard yards of AJ Dillon. Jones has averaged 102 YPG in his last 3 games on 17.6 attempts, a huge jump from his season totals of 73.8 YPG on only 13.1 carries. Even Dillon has increased his YPG from 45.4 to 51 with the Packers run game firmly established in the last 3 games. 173.7 YPG over their last 3 at 5.5 YPC dwarfs their season long 129.4 YPG across the season. Granted they play an elite Titans run D but when Aaron Jones has a line of 56.5, having averaged 102 in his last three games and almost 75 YPG on the season, that’s something you can’t ignore. Lines are yet to be set for rush attempts but with his huge 17.6 carries of late he could be worth a punt there too.
Whilst the Titans have an impressive run defence, one that I still think can be exposed for 56.5 or more yards by Jones, the Packers have built their defence on the strength of their secondary and the ability to defend the pass. Ranking 15th for fewest points conceded with 21.6 PPG seems ordinary, however they rank 1st for the least receiving yards allowed at only 190.2 per game. Jaire Alexander leads them with 3 interceptions, but he faces a Titans offence that isn;’t pass heavy at all. In fact over the last 3 games the Titans have averaged 130 YPG through the air which sits last, whilst they rank second last on the season with 148.2 YPG. It’s clear to assume that the Titans won’t try to pass on the Packers elite defence however this is the NFL where strange things happen every week, and the return of Ryan Tannehill last week for 255 yards in which two Wide Receivers recorded their season best performances means the passing game isn’t to be totally discounted. However, when you have a man like Derrick Henry in your backfield you lean on him heavily and that has been the case in the last three games. His season average is incredibly over 100 yards per game at 102.6 but his last 3 games have seen this peak at 129 YPG courtesy of a huge 22.6 carries a game. Line this up against a Packers defence that ranks 7th for the most rushing yards allowed in the league at 140.6. They also concede a yard per carry rate of 4.8 which ranks 5th worst, and Henry’s form of late (past 3 games) sees him hitting an average of 5.7 YPC. Returning to the Titans passing game and Robert Woods is the WR1 although 4 catches remains his season high. The rookie Treylon Burks could offer slightly more value with a low line of 34.5 yards. His season average is below this but he saw 6 targets last week which is an increase on the 4 targets he saw per game prior to his injury. This is still a bet where we’re relying on the Titans being down and having to pass their way back into it, as the Titans make the lowest number of passing attempts per game at only 23.5, therefore backing Derrick Henry to hit his over is the bet even if it’s 98.5 yards. Alternatively, Henry to get 100 yards and to score a TD is 7/4 which I think is better value as the Packers have conceded 9 rushing TDs so far.
If the Packers fail to get their run game going on the basis of the Titan’s strong run D, then they’ll have to go back to Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. Rodgers averages 231.5 YPG but his problem has been interceptions, something that historically has never troubled him, as he’s thrown 7 in 10 games compared to only 9 across his last two completed seasons. His main target has been Allen Lazard who’s seen 5 TDs come his way but important for betting would be the fact that he’s had 4 receptions or more in every week apart from weeks 2 and 10. Whilst his receptions line hasn’t been priced I expect it’ll be set at 4.5 therefore I think receptions would be best placed in bet builders at the mark of over 3.5 to try and boost the odds. His yards are priced at 48.5, slightly below his season average of 51 YPG probably on account of the Packers new found run game. Nevertheless I think this is a bet as the Titans do have an incredibly poor pass defence allowing the most receiving yards in the league at 294.9 YPG. What is interesting of late would be that the Titans rank best for points conceded in the last 3 at only 13.3 PPG but they have played the Texans (5th feast PPG) and the Broncos (fewest PPG). Despite this impressive stat they did concede 6 TDs and that’s a key contributor to the fact they’ve allowed 16 passing TDs which is surpassed by only 4 other teams. Another peculiarity would be that despite this high yardage allowed they’ve recorded 9 interceptions (only 6 teams can better this) which may put Rodgers in a dangerous position so I could be tempted to back both QBs to record 1 or more interceptions at a price of 7/2.
This game feels like a series of unbalanced matchups, for example the Titans elite run offence against the Packers poor run defence, but it’s also curious how both teams have improved recently (specifically in their last game) in the area that their opponent is generally good at combating. For example, the Titans having one of their best passing performances with Tannehill recording 255 passing yards just before playing the 3rd best pass defence in terms of YPG allowed, and then the Packers having a 200 yard rushing game ahead of facing the Titans with their defence that's allowed the 2nd fewest rush yards. Consequently, I’m unsure whether to back the tried and trusted methods of each team, which would expose their opponent's weakness, or whether to take the belief that each team will focus on their weakness and make it a strength as they did in their last game. Ultimately it’s difficult to make the prediction but I’m certainly going to favour Derrick Henry to rush for 100 yards plus because I think he’s a man on a mission at the moment. In regards to the Packers offence it’s incredibly hard to predict but I think Jones covering his over 56.5 and then Lazard his 48.5 would be as far as I’d be prepared to tip. It’s expected to be a cold night in Lambeau and that always favours a rushing team so for me I think the Titans can go and claim the scalp as underdogs because 1 win doesn’t change the fact this is a Packers side that had lost 5 in a row. I’d also take the under, partly because of the weather/heavy run game that I’m predicting, but also because the Titans have failed to surpass this line of 40.5 in their last 5 games and only recorded points totals of 41, 46, 48 and 41 in their first 4. As a result I think the handicap and total points market is worth backing again with the Titans -0.5 and under 41.5 points looking good at 3/1.
Tips
Titans Money Line- 29/20
Titans minus 0.5 and under 41.5 points- 3/1
Derrick Henry 100+ rush yards and a TD- 7/4
Aaron Jones over 56.5 rushing yards- 5/6
Both QBs over 0.5 interceptions- 7/2
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