By Sam Cook
New Orleans Saints (2-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-4)
Thursday Night Football has produced some poor matchups so far this year and I don’t think this will be quite the offensive shootout that the schedule makers had anticipated. However I don’t see how it's possible that these two sides could put up less than the 20 point average over the last two Thursday Night games. The visiting Saints have been putting up 23.5 points per game and whilst the Cardinals rank lower with only 19 points they should be able to expose NOLA’s leaky defence. The Saints are allowing the 4th highest points per game at 26.3 and that should be something that struggling Kyler Murray will be able to target and finally put in an explosive performance that we know the former number 1 pick can. Meanwhile the Cards allow just over 23.6 points a game (coincidentally almost the same as what the Saints score) so surely this game will surpass previous TNF matchups that saw only 21 and then 19 points.
The Cardinals will be boosted by the return of the suspended DeAndre Hopkins, a clear WR1, and that return comes at the perfect time with new acquisition Marquise Brown being ruled out. Brown had made an immediate impact when reuniting with his former college QB and sits 7th for total receiving yards with 485. He also accounted for 41.77% of the Cards air yards and so the return of Hopkins is a huge relief. He’s averaged 73 yards a game since joining the Cardinals and did so whilst carrying an injury at times last season, so he should make up for the lack of Brown (80.8 yards a game this season). Tight end Zach Ertz has proved another favourite of Murray’s this year, seeing double digit targets in 4 of his 6 games and making 6 catches or more in his last 5. He isn't a huge yards guy at only 299 from his 35 catches but that number of catches is significant and it’s worth taking the over for receptions given Brown’s absence. Expect plenty of air yards with Murray sitting 3rd for pass attempts (252) and also because there's an injury crisis in the RB room. Lead back James Connor is trending towards missing a 2nd straight game whilst backups Eno Benjamin and Darrell Williams currently have injury designations. It’s expected that Benjamin will play but the likelihood is that the run game will be disregarded and Kyler will likely utilise his own legs (100 yards last game on 10 carries) as well as seeking his receivers. The fact the Saints concede the 11th most yards per attempt and 14th most air yards total also implies the Cardinals will come out throwing. The 247.5 over line for passing yards looks far too low given the run scheme problems.
The Saints also have injury problems and played last week without star receiver Mike Thomas, off season addition Jarvis Landry and first round rookie Chris Olave. Despite missing their starting 3 wide receivers they still managed 171 passing yards which is respectable especially considering their starting QB, Jameis Winston, was also out. Winston looks set to return this week but if not Andy Dalton will take the reins again and will do so with a healthier roster around him. Taking up the slack last week was running back Alvin Kamara who rushed for 99 yards and also caught 6 of 9 passes. Now he’s fully fit he’s one to target in fantasy rosters but also to hit on the overs for rushing and receiving. Olave will almost certainly be back, as he has cleared concussion protocol, and he’d be grateful if Winston is back as he’s recorded 14 catches on 26 targets for 227 yards with him compared to half that (8 catches, 13 targets, 121 yards) with Dalton. Even with injuries in their passing game it would serve the Saints to run a pass heavy scheme as Arizona sit bottom 10 in the league for pass defence allowing 68.4% pass completion and 1401 yards. In contrast they are top 10 (7th) for fewest rush yards allowed at 623.
All this leads to the assumption that this will be a pass heavy game- the Cardinals lack a healthy RB room and see the return of their star wide receiver, whilst the Saints are going up against a tough run defence and see the return of at least one of their star receivers and potentially their starting QB. This pass-heavy script could well lead to interceptions (Saints 6 so far & Cards 4) and I’d fancy both QBs to potentially do so. Even with that tough run D Kamara will likely see plenty of rush attempts simply because he’s the most dynamic element of the Saint’s offence. The Cardinals are marginal favourites with a -2.5 line being set by most bookies and given their home advantage I think that’s worth taking. I’d also back the over at 44.5 which has landed in the last 3 Saints games. They’re leaky and also explosive- the perfect recipe for points. 27-24 to the Cards would be my scoreline prediction at 100/1.
Tips
Cardinals -2.5
Over 44.5 points
Both teams to score 20+ points @6/4
Hopkins 2 TDs @9/1
Ertz over 4.5 receptions, Kamara over 3.5 receptions, Kyler over 39.5 passing attempts & 50 rushing yards.
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