By Sam Cook
Thursday Night Football Preview- Battle of the NFC South
Atlanta Falcons (4-5) @ Carolina Panthers (2-7)
Last Thursday we got the only unbeaten team in football putting on a clinic, whereas this week we get two losing teams going up against each other. Ordinarily at this point in the season having played over half your games a losing record would mean no chance at the playoffs. But this is the NFC South where the Buccs lead the way with a record of 4-5 so the winner of this game can still make a legitimate run towards the playoffs. Pair that with the fact that the last time these teams matched up, only 2 weeks ago, we got over 70 points in an overtime thriller then I think this game could actually be good entertainment value, even if the quality isn't there.
The Falcons visit Charlotte having lost a tight matchup against the Chargers last week to a last second field goal but they were boosted by the return of their number one running back Cordarrelle Patterson who put in a 2 TD performance. They haven’t lost back to back games since weeks 1 and 2, so they’ll hope to bounce back and beat a Carolina side that they saw off only 2 weeks ago. That win would put them top of their division and with another matchup against the Buccs to come they would be in control of their own playoff ambitions. They’re favoured by the bookies to go into Carolina and get the win with the handicap being set at 2.5 points but given the close nature of these divisional games it’s very hard to call.
Meanwhile the Panthers return home after a huge loss to the Bengals last week. 35-0 down at half time they did manage to make the score respectable finishing 42-21 however this was mainly on account of 4th quarter garbage time yards, recording 148 of their 228 total yards in the last 15 minutes. This did give them the chance to test out undrafted rookie Raheem Blackshear who managed 40 yards and a TD, and may well see snaps again this week. The Panthers only wins have come inside the division including a massive shock win against the Buccs 21-3 only days after trading star running back McCaffrey. They’ve also already seen a coaching fire and are in a QB crisis with PJ Walker replacing Mayfield as the starter, only to be dropped last week mid game. It’s expected Walker will start against a Falcons side he put 317 yards on in week 8 but nothing is confirmed.
Ordinarily I’d go into each team's offensive and defensive stats at this point but given the recent matchup I think it’s far easier to analyse that in order to provide insight into this matchup. The Falcons won 37-34 after overtime in a thriller but the Panthers kicker Eddie Pineiro had the opportunity to win the game but missed the extra point on their last minute touchdown. The Falcons led for almost all of the game scoring 5 minutes into the 2nd quarter to make the game 7-3, after Pineiro’s 1st quarter field goal, holding that lead until the Panthers went ahead with only 3 minutes 6 seconds left on the clock. Both sides managed to score a TD in those last 3 minutes and the Falcons a field goal to make it level, before a Koo field goal secured victory in overtime. This wasn’t a game for defence at all with easy yardage being gained all over the pitch. The Falcons put up 167 rushing yards to the Panthers 169, and even Marcus Mariota who averages less than 160 yards per game managed to pass for 239 yards with Walker putting up 317 as already mentioned. Both teams cleared their average points per game easily, the Falcons typically recording 24.1 PPG compared to the Panthers 19.9. In fact prior to this game the Panthers had averaged only 13 PPG in their previous five games highlighting how poor the Falcon’s defence is. Panthers RB Foreman put up 118 yards and Falcon’s rookie Huntley responded with 91. Panthers WR DJ Moore put a season high 152 yards and star TE Kyle Pitts responded with 80 of his own. Basically the Panthers out-yarded the Falcons in every aspect but still managed to lose, and given the Falcons have Patterson back and the arguably better performances of late I think their 2.5 point handicap is justified.
The Falcons offence is built on the run, QB Mariota is a running QB himself but it’s still surprising that he only completes 13.8 passes per game whilst attempting only 22.3- both of which rank 3rd fewest in the league. Mariota averages 6.6 rushes a game but has had fumbling issues (5 fumbles) so may be a non factor. What’s curious is that their yardage per game ranks 25th (massively propped up by their rush YPG of 162.9 ranked 4th relative to their 30th ranked pass yardage) however their points per game still remains top 10. They have a very good kicker in Young-hoe Koo but are clearly performing well when it comes to redzone offence ranking 9th converting 62.07% of plays inside their opponent’s 20 yards into TDs. Even more worrying for the Panthers is that they have a 72.73% rate away from home. Lots of this is down to their running game as referenced, rookies Huntley and Allgeier took up the mantle when Patterson was injured but both are very hard to predict. Huntley seemingly has a good game and then a bad game recording stats of 7 rushes for 34 yards, 16 for 91 (versus the Panthers), 6 for 22, 16 for 59 and then only 8 for 34. There’s no consistency here in terms of carries or even yards per carry- the only thing worth clinging too would be his strong performance against the Panthers, but with Patterson returning he isn’t worth touching in terms of a bet for me. Allgeier meanwhile doesn’t have the yardage but does have consistent carries recording an average of 13.6 across his last five games and a breakout game of 99 yards last week. I find him more worthwhile to back than Huntley but mainly on rush attempts. The star of the show is Patterson who took 13 carries last week for 2 TDs and has averaged 14 a game when healthy. His 76.8 YPG includes two 100 yard games so he can be a little bit boom or bust but when playing a Panthers defence that allows 139.3rush YPG (5th most) I think he’s a play with his line set only at 51.5. I think this is well worth taking the over.
By way of passing they’re one of the worst in the league putting up the 3rd least yards at 173.4 receiving YPG but rookie Drake London is responsible for most of them. The first rounder averages 6.2 targets a game but only 3.6 catches and of late he’s only averaged 21 yards per game, compared to his season average of 41 YPG. 3.5 receptions is right on the line for him and with these diminished yards it’s not something I favour. Instead second year Kyle Pitts has been profiting with a huge uptick in targets. On the season he sees just under 6 targets a game but in his last 2 he has 16 targets but only 7 catches. If he can improve that catch rate then I think over 3.5 receptions at 5/6 is brilliant value for him. Patterson hasn't been as involved in the passing game as last year recording only 5 catches on 9 targets compared to his 52/69 for 548 yards statline of last season. Someone I think is slept on would be Olamide Zaccheaus who isn’t targeted often but when he is he makes catches recording 22/25 catches this season for 36.8 YPG- in a game that could become a shootout like last time I think over 22.5 is a brilliant bet for him, especially considering the Falcons have made 23 passes of 20 yards or more this season which accounts for 18.5% of Mariota’s throws and Zaccheaus recording 6 of those. The line being set this low makes me think that even if he only gets 1 target he could still hit his yards over given his insane catch percentage and his tendency to get deep.
As well as struggling to make passes the Falcons are terrible at defending them, they’ve allowed 25 PPG but a league high 300 passing YPG letting opposing QBs put up 68.9% passing completion rate which ranks 2nd highest in the league. This will be music to the ears of PJ Walker who has the lowest passing completion rate in the league and is coming off the back of a benching in which he went 3/10 with 3 interceptions. Whilst Walker did put up impressive numbers in the reverse fixture this low confidence could affect him, especially as that Falcon’s performance was an outlier among a season of mediocre performances. He’s averaged 124.6 yards in his last 5 games with only 3 TDs but 3 interceptions. Mayfield on the other hand averaged 186.2 YPG but he was dropped for a reason and that was predominantly his inability to avoid the sack. Mayfield was put on the ground 15 times in only 6 games, most of which he didn’t play the full 4 quarters. He also failed to strike a connection with star WR DJ Moore who has refound his form with Walker under centre. Over half of Moore’s yards have come in his last 3 games recording an average of 81.7 YPG and 5 catches on 9 targets. His catch rate does need improving as he’s below 50% at the moment but given that he is the only real threat he sees lots of double coverage. Another player who has been finding form is Terrace Marshall Jr who has season long stats of 13/23 for 201 but has actually put up 9/18 for 171 at a monstrous 19 yards per catch in his last 3 games. Both of these players are the only real threats and as such the only players I’d look at betting on. Marshall JR’s average over the past 3 has been 57 YPG and so his over 35.5 yards looks great value, and DJ Moore’s 58.5 also looks tempting especially when you consider he put up 152 yards against the Falcons 2 weeks ago. Raheem Blackshear saw 4 targets last week in their blowout loss catching all 4 for 40 yards and he could be a sneaky play on an incredibly low line, although it may be one for bet builders.
Blackshear may also see usage in the backfield however it’s reported that running back Chubba Hubbard was in full practice on Tuesday which would suggest he’s trending towards playing Thursday night. The Panthers rank 22nd averaging 105.3 rush YPG but weirdly this has improved to 135 YPG without CMC. The man responsible for this mainly is Donta Foreman, who stepped up in Derrick Henry’s absence in Tennessee last season and is doing so again in Carolina here recording 118 yards in both of his first two games without CMC against the Buccs and also the Falcons. Last week saw only 23 yards but in a game that they had to chase they resorted to the pass and I think Foreman will return to putting in a healthy shift. He’s actually averaged 16 carries a game at 5.4 YPC in his 3 games as lead back and that average includes his 7 rushes for 23 yards last week. We could see a huge volume against the Falcons and I think he is worth backing on carries as opposed to yards. This is in part due to the Falcons surprisingly good run defence, they rank 8th best allowing only 106.9 rush YPG and have forced 11 fumbles as well. Expect Rashaad Evans to be all over the pitch making tackles as he averages 9.4 tackles/assists a game so a line of 8.5 or lower is definitely worth taking the over on. Back to the potentially returning Hubbard I think he’s a yards play if the yards are set at around 40. He averaged 7 yards per carry against the Buccs before his injury and could go well again, albeit in a clear number 2 role after Foreman’s solid performances.
For me the Falcons look like a side worthy of the win and I will be taking them on the whole point handicap line of -3 at 10/11. The return of Patterson, the increase in targets for Pitts (which Mariota has openly spoken about being premeditated), the inability of the Panthers to put together sacks (only 14- 5th fewest in the league) plus their leaky rush defence that has allowed 12 rushing TDs (only 3 teams allowed more) suggests to me that the Falcons will be heading into week 11 with a record of 5-5. The Falcons struggle to defend the pass, luckily enough they face one of the worst wide receiver rooms in football and a QB coming off the back of one of the worst halves of football ever. Even if Baker steps in it’s proven in the first few games of the season that he doesn’t have a good connection with DJ Moore, who is the Panthers main threat. The Panthers are adequate at running the ball putting up 135 a game in their last 3 but then the Falcons have the 8th best run defence. On the flip side the Panthers have allowed the 5th most rush yards which almost perfectly matches the Falcon’s elite running game where they rank 4th best for rush YPG. I do expect points, although not as many as week 8, given that both sides concede 25 or more a game and I think the over 44.5 is one that will land. Score prediction wise I think the Falcons will win 27-22 and because of how close I view the scoreline in relation to the points it’s not one that I will be backing.
Tips
Falcons -3 @10/11
Patterson 100+ rushing yards and a TD @9/1 (Half point bet)
Olamide Zaccheaus over 22.5 yards @5/6
Patterson over 51.5 rushing yards @5/6
DJ Moore over 61.5 receiving yards @5/6
Patterson 50+ rushing yards, Moore 50+ receiving yards, Marshall 26+ receiving yards, Pitts over 3.5 receptions, London over 2.5 receptions @9/1 BetVictor BetBuilder (Half point bet)
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