By Sam Cook
Baltimore Ravens (4-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)
Last week we got our best Thursday Night Football matchup so far with the Cardinals and Saints putting up 76 points, almost double that of the previous two TNF matchups combined (40 points total). This week I don’t foresee as many points but we certainly have a brilliant matchup, it won’t quite be as the schedule makers anticipated with both teams stalling a little this season but nonetheless we get to see two playoff contenders battle it out. The Ravens have struggled since half time vs the Bills where they turned a 20-3 lead into 20-23 loss come full time. Since then they have won 2 of their 3 but by a combined total of 5 points, whilst losing the other game by 4. On the whole it doesn't look so bad but we’ll break down some stats that suggest otherwise. Even worse the Buccs have totally stalled and can’t even grind out the wins like their opponents. 4 losses in their last 5 including their last two coming at the hands of rookie QB Kenny Pickett and former XFL player PJ Walker suggest that maybe Brady has gone one season too many?
The visiting Ravens are one of the leagues higher scoring offences putting up 25.8 PPG ranking them 6th highest, by contrast the Buccs rank 6th lowest with a lowly 17.7 points a game. This is worlds apart from what was the 2nd highest scoring offence last season averaging 30 points a game and yet very little has changed by way of personnel other than the promotion of DC Todd Bowles to Head Coach. In fact Brady is still putting up big yardage ranking 7th for passing yards per game at over 277. This is a 35 yard per game drop off from his league leading 312.7 yards per game last season but it is still a respectable total. Last week's performance versus the lowly Panthers in which they tallied 3 points and punted 6 times despite 290 passing yards for Brady highlights this problem.
Their inability to run the ball (ranked last with 64.4 YPG) takes away the threat of the run and as such players get double teamed in coverage or the run is often stuffed in short yardage goal line situations because it’s so inefficient. Clearly the Buccs will once again force the pass (Brady 49 attempts vs Panthers) against a Ravens pass defence allowing 261.3 YPG (4th most) and they may well have success given the Raven’s poor secondary. Moreover the Ravens have 3rd year linebacker Patrrick Queen playing at a pro bowl level and his run stuffing and tackling has been exceptional so if passing beyond him nullifies his threat it’s certainly something the Buccs will do. A final reason why I don’t foresee the Buccs running is Fournette averages only 3.5 YPC (3rd fewest among RBs with over 100 carries) which simply isn’t good enough. Expect passing and lots of it with Evans (48), Godwin (44) & Gage (40) all seeing lots of targets. Evans leads the bunch for yards per game at 75 but Godwin has seen 8.8 targets a game since his return from injury which is monstrous. Another huge stat would be that Fournette has 34 catches on 39 targets out of the backfield including 3 touchdowns. He’s unusable as a running back but in PPR fantasy football or when betting on the over for receptions he’s one to target averaging almost 5 catches a game (over 4.5 @5/4).
That’s effectively the Buccs offence break down done. They have lots of impressive stats but an inability to score points seemingly, they’d hope this is a get right game in a stadium they made a fortress last year (7-1) with Brady likely putting up close to 300 passing yards, Evans and Godwin would be my tips for yard monsters whilst Fournette and his over 4.5 looks overpriced. In respect to the tight end position rookie Cade Otton has been impressive but I wouldn’t take anything more than over 1.5 receptions as he’s still yet to firmly solidify a huge snap percentage.
Onto the other battle which is the Ravens offence against the Buccs defence. As already mentioned the Ravens hold the 4th highest average for points but this is incredibly deceptive as they’ve hit stumbling blocks since week 4 versus Buffalo. They didn’t record a single point in that second half and have only amassed 62 points in their 3 games since then. That 20 point average is far more in line with a mid table scoring return, instead of the 4th highest scoring rate they actually present. This drop off in points all comes down to Lamar and his passing game drop off. Prior to week 4 he was on MVP pace with his rushing ability being propped up by a solid 250 YPG but since then he’s almost 90 yards a game worse off seeing his average at 162 pass yards per game. A shocking stat that highlights Lamar’s drop off in form is his 12 total TDs in his first 3 relative to only 3 in his last 4. This sort of huge drop off would typically be attributed to a change in scheme however in his first 6 games he attempted between 29 and 32 throws every game. The change in scheme only came last week when he made a career low 16 pass attempts (only counting games where he played 75% of snaps or more) and it’s unclear whether this is something that will continue tonight. It seems such an outlier in his whole career that I’d assume passing attempts will hit the mid 20s if not a return to his 30 attempt a game average.
A return to a passing game is something Mark Andrews will hope for as he only saw 2 targets last week and failed to catch either of them. Prior to that game he had seen 10 targets in 4 of the 6 matches so far and had been the clear number one target for Lamar and was the clear number one tight end in the league. In fact since the start of last season Andrews has averaged 5.9 catches a game and just over 9 targets, he’s questionable for tonight and if he is out then the Ravens task of winning becomes so much more difficult. Another player who is questionable is receiver Rashod Bateman who has stepped into the role left by Hollywood Brown (traded to the Cardinals pre season). Bateman had a breakout game in week 2 recording 4 catches for 108 yards but the lack of the deep ball by Lamar since week 3 has rendered him to be futile. Granted he did miss weeks 5 and 6 but his return last week saw a much more conservative yards per catch rate of 10.5 (4 of 5 for 42) relative to his Week 1-3 average of 28.25 YPC with 8 catches for 226 yards on 16 targets.
This downwards trend in the Ravens pass attack coupled with the Buccs holding the 6th best pass yards allowed per game (190) suggests the Ravens will have to rely on their key weapon that is the run game. The Ravens have averaged 156.3 rush yards per game and key to that is Lamar who has put up over 70 yards per game himself. This is hugely important because the actual person at running back has chopped and changed this season due to injury. In the last two we’ve seen Gus Edwards return and put up 66 yards on 16 carries for 2 TDs and the week before saw Kenyan Drake record 10 carries for 119 yards and a TD. These impressive stat lines came on 36% and 58% snap share. If the pair form a tandem or even trio with Lamar they could put serious numbers up against a run D that’s bang average (16th most yards allowed). Moreover the Buccs have only faced one QB who can be characterised as dual threat or a rushing QB, that being Marcus Mariota and he dented them for 61 yards on only 7 carries (Mariota’s highest YPC all year @ 8.71) so Lamar to hit his over of 60.5 is definitely something I’d be advising. Whilst the Buccs’ run D is incredibly average it does allow fewer rush yards than what the Ravens tally up (118.3 allowed & Ravens putting up 156.3) however, the Ravens have twice played top 10 run defences and have twice far exceeded what those defences have been allowing on average. The Bills allow 76 per game but ceded 160 to Lamar & co, whilst the Phins allow 103 on average but 155 to the Ravens. Effectively it shou;ldn’t or doesn’t matter that the Buccs run D is average and not terrible, because the ravens make good run D’s look bad as well.
It seems quite a clear game script in place for tonight. The Ravens will run and the Buccs will pass. Both sides are targeting the oppositions weakness whilst playing to their strength and so ordinarily one would side with the home team. But there’s something incredibly concerning about the Buccs average of only 17.7 PPG in spite of their yardage. An inability to get into the end zone or convert red zone possessions into TDs (27th ranked at converting to TDs with 47% but only 30% on their last 3 games) is something that costs you games. The Ravens will punish that stat and therefore I’m taking the Ravens on the money line at evens. The handicap is 1.5 in favour of Tampa but any news regarding the injury status of Mark Andrews will sway that either to the Ravens or to 3.5 for the Buccs in my opinion as he is pivotal to the Ravens success. The over/under at 45.5 is something in seasons past I’d hammer the over but as referenced Tampas tame scoring is a concern. I’d slightly favour it landing but at the short odds it’s not something I’d back. Score prediction is 27-20 to the Ravens @100/1 and my most fancied tip would be Fournette over 4.5 receptions @5/4.
Tips
Ravens -0.5 and over 44.5 match points @9/4
Edwards (6/5) & Evans (6/5) both to score a TD @4/1
Brady 225+ pass yards & 2 passing TDs, Lamar & Fournette 100+ combined rush yards & 1 TD combined, Godwin & Andrews 150 yards & a TD combined @8/1
Brady 275+ passing yards, Godwin & Evans 65+ receiving yards each, Fournette over 4.5 receptions & under 53.5 rushing yards, Edwards & Jackson 50+ rushing yards each @30/1 Bet Victor Bet Builder
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