With round four of the FA Cup getting underway tonight with Manchester City beating Premiership leaders Arsenal 1-0, it's now time for a weekend of Cup magic and hopefully some Cup winnings.
There's no Premier League football despite nine top flight sides having been knocked out in the third round and there's certain to be at least another two knocked out this round with the all Premier League ties being the aforementioned City vs Arsenal and then Brighton vs Liverpool getting underway on Sunday.
Saturday's action is headed up by two 12:30pm kick-offs with Premier League Leicester and Leeds travelling to Walsall and Accrington Stanley respectively. There's the saying 'never back the early kick-off' but when there's two it can be excused to look for a cheeky double and that's what I'm picking out. League One Accrington (20th) and League Two Walsall (11th) shouldn't provide huge tests for either of the Premier League sides and ought to be more focused on their league campaigns given Stanley's perilous position and Walsall being just four points shy of the playoffs with a game in hand.
The double on the Prem sides is an obvious pick but it doesn't even come in at evens, instead I fancy two strikers who are out of favour to grasp their chance and to make good on it. Kelechi Iheanacho has found himself bang out of favour behind the veteran Vardy and the supersub Daka, but the Nigerian got a run out and a goal against Gillingham in round three. The 26-year-old has 15 in 21 in his FA Cup career including four in six on Leicester's run to lift the trophy in 2020. Priced at 29/20 I think the Nigerian represents value. As for Leeds I'll take Patrick Bamford to score with the talented striker still not getting the starting spot following his injury issues. Instead he's had his minutes managed but has struck gold when given a chance against lower league opposition, something he showed when bagging a brace against Cardiff in the third round replay. Prior to that he'd also scored against Aston Villa off the bench and I think this will be the prime time for Jesse Marsch to give the Englishman some much needed minutes and confidence. Priced just under evens at 10/11 I expect him to take advantage of the team dwindling in League One just one point ahead of the relegation zone and four points from the foot of the table. The double pays just under 15/4.
Onto the 3pm games and without an all Premier League tie or any particular derby games it's hard to select any individual games to target. Instead a small treble could be the way to go and it's probably one to chance finding value with as well given the unpredictability of the cup at times, and also the lack of value in backing against lower league opposition. To counter that the BTTS market is always a handy one to target and the three particular games that BinkBet have boosted see Ipswich vs Burnley, Southampton vs Blackpool and Luton vs Grimsby. From 5/1 to 7/1 it's a bet well worth taking and there's also plenty of evidence to support it.
Four of Ipswich's last five have seen both teams score whilst it's happened three times in Burnley's last five. It's also happened the last twice when Burnley have travelled away from Turf Moor. Pitting teams from the top of the Championship and League One together means it's sure to be competitive and I think BTTS is well worth supporting.
As for Saints vs the Tangerines you've got two teams that came through round three via the BTTS method with a 2-1 win for the home team and Blackpool knocking out Premier League opposition in the shape of Nottingham Forest with a huge 4-1 win at the start of the month. That shows their pedigree to score against Premier League sides and when you consider that both Southampton and Forest have conceded 35 goals in 20 Prem games this season then you realise Blackpool can certainly expose them. As for the Saints scoring they'll take solace in Blackpool sitting 23rd in the Championship having conceded 40 in 27 and in each of their last six games with five of those seeing both teams score.
The last game in the boosted treble is Championship side Luton who host Grimsby Town. League Two Grimsby need something like a cup run to excite them given they sit plum between the playoffs and the drop zone. Sitting 16th and 11 points shy of 7th and 10 ahead of 23rd they're coasting to another average season and you can guarantee they'll travel despite the long journey. Fans will want another cup win following three cup wins already, two of which featured BTTS. Five of their 12 away games has seen BTTS but three of those have come in the last five away games. As for Championship Luton they boast one of the highest percentages of BTTS in their home games. Since the start of the 2022/23 campaign Luton have played 15 games at home and both teams have scored in a whopping 11 of them, almost 75%. That features a run of four consecutive games with BTTS with the feat happening seven times in the last eight.
The treble being boosted to a huge 7/1 doesn't look so bad now when you see the date surrounding the teams, take advantage of the uncertainty of the Cup and hammer the BTTS market instead of playing into the disproportionate win/loss odds that are made when teams from different divisions play one another.
Onto the Saturday evening games and we see two Premier League teams play lower league opposition with Spurs travelling to Preston for the 6pm kick-off and then in-form Manchester United hosting Reading at 8pm.
Preston have lost their last five meetings in the FA Cup against Premier League opposition however they've scored in the last three, another shout at backing the BTTS market maybe? Well Spurs have seen BTTS occur in four of their last six FA Cup ties, the two exceptions being the last two which were a 1-0 win over Portsmouth and a loss to Middlesborough by the same score-line in the Round of 16 last year. Another point that could favour our BTTS tip would be that Preston have scored in each of their last eight FA Cup home games, dating all the way back to February 2014. BTTS - book it!
The late game is one that I don't fancy BTTS in, in fact I'd go as far as to back Manchester United to win to nil, just as we tipped mid-week when we landed three out of three winning bets. That's something I can forsee happening again and so I'd double the Preston Spurs BTTS with Manchester United to win and BTTS No. Reading have failed to score in their last two away games coming off a 4-0 loss to Stoke. Since the restart United have won seven of seven at Old Trafford with four of those coming with a clean sheet and three of them specifically being 3-0, a result that they registered on Wednesday when away from home. The evening double pays just under 5/2 whilst the 3-0 score line pays 11/2, and seen as our Garnacho bet was voided on Wednesday I fancy him to start tomorrow and to score, priced at 9/5.
All the FA Cup Bets:
Lunchtime Double: Iheanacho & Bamford both to score - 3/1
3PM BTTS Treble: Ipswich v Burnley, Luton v Grimsby Town, Southampton v Blackpool - boosted to 7/1 on BinkBet
Evening Double: Preston v Spurs BTTS & Man United to win to nil - 5/2
Manchester United Specific Bets: Garnacho to score anytime (9/5) & United 3-0 win (11/2)
There's still football league action even if the Premier League isn't on and the FA Cup is dominating the headlines. The Championship, League One and League Two see 20 games in total.
Championship
The pick of the games sees Middlesborough take on Watford with 3rd travelling to 6th but only two points separating the promotion-chasing sides. Boro have won four of their last five and are in brilliant form under Michael Carrick winning their last three home games, whilst Watford have lost two of their last three on the road. Carrick has overseen eight wins, one draw and just three losses and star striker Chuba Akpom has bagged five of his last six at the Riverside. Akpom to score is priced at 11/8 but backing the Boro win is a step too far for me given how tight both sides are in the league.
League One
Shrewsbury have somehow been priced as large as 5/6 to beat Forest Green and that's a price that I'm all over. The home side are just five points off the playoff places and have won their last three whilst Forest Green sit bottom of the table with just nine points in 14 away games. Forest Green have only picked up one point from their last five games as well so they're worth taking on.
League Two
Carlisle are the most in form team in the League and they travel to bottom place Rochdale but are still priced as large as evens which represents incredible value. Four wins from five puts Carlisle fourth in the table whilst Rochdale are coming off back to back losses. The value is simply too good to ignore.
League Treble: Akpom to score, Shrewsbury to win & Carlisle to win - 7.34/1
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