By Aidan Smyth
After a shorter turnaround then usual between the last T20 World Cup in the UAE just over a year ago, it’s no surprise to see last years winners, and this years host Australia, leading the outright market. Warner and Finch leading their batting, with a frightening seam attack to match, the hosts have every chance of repeating last years success, but 3/1 seems a touch short to me off the back of a series defeat to India, and defeat to England on Sunday.
Therefore, I’ll be looking at a bigger price towards South Africa this time around. Despite recent shortening in the market, you can still find 8/1 on the Proteas, and despite their narrow defeat to India in their most recent t20 series, their demolition of England in the last 2 t20’s in that series win, shows they are more then capable of mixing with the big boys.Nortje, Rabada, and Ngidi will lead the way with the ball, and this is as good a seam attack as you will find in the tournament. Nortje ran riot in the 2021 World Cup with 9 wickets in 5 games at just 5.37 runs an over, and despite a poorer World Cup for Rabada, he is still one the very best in the world, with a great record in Australia.
Ngidi is sometimes the man in the shadow of the main 2 seamer’s but his 5fer in the first T20 against England really showed his quality, and at 6/1 to be the Proteas top wicket taker, he could be outstanding value.The batting of South Africa is equally as strong, Quinton De Kock is absolutely breathtaking when he gets going, as anyone who saw his brutal 140* in the IPL earlier this year will tell you. Riley Roussow had a quiet time by his standards in the Hundred recently, but his 100* against India shows he is close to finding top form again. These 2 will be complimented by David Miller, Aiden Markram, and the dynamic youngster Tristan Stubbs, who’s 72, off just 28 balls against England earlier this year, showed he possesses the quality and power to do some serious damage at this World Cup down the order.
Outright Tip - South Africa - 8/1
The top run scorer market is absolutely littered with quality and there are so many players both at the top, and further down the market that you could make a case for, but I’m finding it increasingly difficult to look past Jos Buttler. The England captain missed the Pakistan series through injury casting a doubt over his place alongside Rizwan, and Babar Azam, at the top of the market, but a blistering 68 off just 32 on his return against tournament favourites Australia soon squashed those doubts. Since opening the batting in t20 cricket Buttler has gone from strength to strength, and is more then capable of firing England to the latter stages of this tournament almost single handedly, as he demonstrated in the IPL with Rajasthan Royals. His magnificent 4 centuries, and over 850 runs, fired his Rajasthan side all the way to the IPL final for the first time since 2008, and if the relentless England skipper finds that sort of form again here, the 9/1 being offered, could be made to look extremely silly.
It’s also no surprise to see plenty of Sri Lankan and West Indian players towards the top of the market, given their extra 3 qualifying games, and this would make me take a look at Pathum Nissanka from Sri Lanka at 14/1.The Sri Lankans seem to have a slightly easier qualifying group then the West Indians and the exciting young opener can take advantage of these soft qualifiers to obtain and uncatchable lead over the big names in the market.With an average of almost 40 when batting at 1, and a strike rate just shy of 120, Nissanka will look to anchor the innings, while some of the big hitters look to score quickly around him. This consistency could make him good value at 14/1 if he gets off to a quick start in the qualifiers. The each way value in the field could come in the form of the aforementioned Riley Roussow, who is currently priced at 40/1. The 100* against India last time out was just a glimpse at what the destructive batsman can do, and if South Africa go deep in this tournament, 40/1 could be tremendous value.
Outright tips:
Jos Buttler - 8/1
Pathum Nissanka - 14/1
Riley Roussow - 40/1 EW
The bowling outright is a seemingly impossible nut to crack, with the market again dominated by the Sri Lankan and West Indian bowlers who look for big wickets against the weaker nations in the qualifiers.It’s no surprise therefore to see Warindu Hasaranga leading the market, with the classy leg spinner becoming somewhat of a t20 specialist, but with the pitches expected to be quite flat, I would be looking past the short prices favourite. Instead my pick would be Alzarri Joseph from the West Indies at 20/1. The quick man took 5 wickets for just 38 runs in his 8 overs, in the games against Australia, despite his side losing both games, demonstrating his ability to take wickets against the top sides, should West Indies reach the Super 12 as expected.
Sheldon Cotterell and Obed McCoy lead the way for the Windies in the market, but given the pitches we are to expect, the ability to bowl 150kph and above that Joseph possesses could see him steam through teams in the qualifying games. Further down the market, another quick who could be excellent each way value is Haris Rauf. The Pakistan quick bowler was the top wicket taker in the recent series against England, but with some better catching from his side, it could have been many more wickets. He also has experience of performing on these Australian wickets, boasting a strong Big Bash record, including his breakthrough Big Bash season in 2019/2020, where he led his Melbourne Stars side to the final with 20 wickets, in just 10 games. If Pakistan can field better then they did in the recent England series, Rauf could be crucial for them reaching the latter stages.
As mentioned in the tournament outright preview, Lungi Ngidi is also great value in this tournament. Flying under the radar due to the brilliance of the other quicks, Ngidi’s great change ups, are devastating at the back end of innings. Nortje’ run rate at the last World Cup was just 5.37, and if he bowls to a similar economy this time around, one would expect teams to try and score runs of Ngidi. This is where he is at his best, with his slower balls proving difficult to pick at the back end. If South Africa can find there feet early on, it wouldn’t be any surprise at all to see Ngidi up there in the wickets come the final on November 13th.
My final selection comes from the well fancied England side, who you’d expect to be seeing in the latter stages of this competition, but my pick wouldn’t be the popular Mark Wood, but instead Sam Curran. Curran was England's top wicket taker in the Pakistan series and has become a crucial part of this England side, with his variations picking up big wickets at the start and end of innings. Mark Wood has looked in great form admittedly during the recent games he has played, but given his persistent injury worries, it would be no surprise to see him miss some of the easier games in the Super 12, which would hinder his chances considerably. Curran, on the other hand, should play every game, and if he continues his fine form from the Pakistan series into the World Cup, he could be tremendous each way value at 80/1.
Outright tips:
Alzarri Joseph - 20/1
Haris Rauf - 40/1 EW
Lungi Ngidi - 40/1 EW
Sam Curran - 80/1 EW
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