By Sam Cook
Denver Broncos (2-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers (3-2)
Monday Night Football offers up a second successive division matchup from the AFC West between two sides that have failed to really hit the strides that pre season hype had suggested. The Denver Broncos travel west to Hollywood to take on the LA Chargers where Russell Wilson will be looking for the ultimate cinematic twist to kickstart the Broncos dwindling season. The Chargers meanwhile do sit on a winning record but will hope to put in a blockbuster performance against their divisional foe.
Both sides sit behind the imperious 4-1 Chiefs who won last week’s AFC West matchup and if this game is anything like last week's close affair between the aforementioned Chiefs and the Raiders then we’re in for a treat. Similarly if we can hit the same level of success on our tips as last week then we’re in for some more profit. Three of the four highlighted tips landed including a 3/1 and a 7/2 shot. Plenty of other winners could have been found utilising the article analysis or the cheat sheet stat pack that was also posted on site. The research has been done again this week so let’s try to replicate that form or even better it for a clean sweep.
The Broncos have failed to put onto the field the offensive performances that their roster on paper should be doing so. Their record of 2-3 includes a loss to divisional rival the Raiders (their only win through 5 games) but also saw a Thursday Night Football game to forget when they succumbed to the Colts 12-9 after overtime. That was one of four games in which they were separated from their opponent by only a score, with two of their matches being split by only 1 point- a win and loss a piece. That loss was 17-16 to the new QB in town’s former side. Russ joined in order to compete and go win a 2nd ring however a humiliating loss to career backup Geno Smith and his old side in his old stadium set the stage for what's been an uninspiring 2-3 start- as such this divisional game is vital for in order for the Broncos to kick start their season. Let’s ride!
Alternatively the Chargers sit on the other side of a .500 record with 3 wins and 2 losses and have defeated the Raiders, something the Broncos failed to do. However they then lost in week 2 to division leaders the Chiefs with a last second field goal sealing their fate. An embarrassing trouncing to the Jaguars 38-10 came next in a game in which QB Justin Herbert carried an injury designation of broken ribs, before back to back wins against the Texans and Browns where they amassed 34 and 30 points respectively. This Monday night matchup with the Broncos looks set to be the tale of two offences- one of the best (Chargers) in the league and one of the worst (Broncos) in the league- either way it looks set to deliver and hopefully this breakdown can deliver the stats to leave you with winning bet slips come Tuesday morning.
As referenced these offences are polar opposites and we’ll start with the weaker of the two. The Broncos were supposed to be this year's absolute powerhouse offence, they put up impressive numbers last season with the erratic Drew Lock at quarterback and were seemingly a QB away from a Superbowl roster. Trade rumours started before the 2021 draft in reference to Green Bay man Aaron Rodgers who wasn't content with his side’s drafting of first round QB Jordan Love in 2020, yet that rumour came and went with the week 6 trade deadline last October. An offensive mind from Green Bay did arrive this off season though in the shape of new Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett who has served as the Packer’s Offensive Coordinator helping Aaron Rodgers to back to back MVP titles. Then when 9 time pro bowler Russell Wilson joined in March the Denver offence was the talk of the league- a top 10 QB, a 1-2 punch at RB of second year Javonte Williams and seasoned vet Melvin Gordon and a wide receiver corps consisting of Sutton, Jeudy and Hamler. What has followed has been very off script with the Broncos only putting up 75 points through their first 5 games. This measly average of 15 points per game is made worse when you consider that on two occasions they failed to hit double digits and on a third they only managed 11 points. In short the Broncos have a glaring inability to put up points as signified by their combined 6 touchdowns all year- 4 through the air and 2 on the ground. Were it not for the boot of veteran Brandon McManus going 11/14 on field goals the Broncos would find themselves in far worse situation. Despite these obvious lowlights by way of points they boast an average passing attack, as expected with the weapons already noted, Russ is throwing for over 250 yards per game and he ranks 2nd in the league for throws of over 20 yards (21). This has contributed to Courtland Sutton’s impressive stat line of 29 receptions for 417 yards. The problem has been though that Sutton accounts for 41.26% of all Broncos receiving yards (7th highest in the league) so when he’s double teamed out of games there’s little else that is prosperous. This leads us to 3rd year former first round pick Jerry Jeudy who has seen as many targets as Sutton has receptions highlighting the clear 1-2 dynamic where he sits firmly behind Sutton. Of these 29 targets Jeudy has failed to haul in 15 of them leaving him at a dismal sub 50% catch rate, something that has led to broken down drives on many occasions. This has led to Russ seeing his pass completion percentage dropping to 59.4% (5th lowest among starters) whereas he had averaged 64.7% in his 10 years at Seattle and never once dropped below 61.3%. This drop off is immense and whilst 5 games is a small sample size the Broncos are clearly in need of a sharp uptick in production to justify their $245 million 5 year contract they gave Wilson. What was prominent in Seattle was a run game however in Denver it is faltering ranking 20th in yards and 18th in yards per carry (563 & 4.3YPC) but the biggest problem is fumbles where they rank tied 2nd in the league with 4, 3 of which the veteran Gordon has coughed up. That’s as many fumbles as he gave up all of last year on 151 carries less. With Gordon questionable and 2nd year Williams out for the season they look to backup Mike Boone and late practice squad additions Latavius Murray and Phillip Lindsay to try and do what Williams and Gordon couldn't do. A failure to see any run over 20 yards is crippling and they’re 1 of 4 teams to be in such a predicament but they’ve run 12 times more than all of those teams and in one case 20 times more. The inability to get a breakout run could well come down to their offensive line which has also allowed 16 sacks- the 7th most in the league. Russ will need to scramble a lot to avoid the relentless Chargers pass rush and improve on their lowly 15 points per game.
When you’re in a rut of low scoring form you could only wish to come up against a side that's conceded the 4th most points in the league and ship 27.2 points per game, almost double your offensive output, but that is what the Chargers present on Monday night. This leaky defence is something of a surprise with Head Coach Brandon Staley being a defensive mind and with many touting the Chargers D to be a league leader this season. Instead they’ve given up 10 passing touchdowns (6th most) yet have tied for the 6th most interceptions with 6. They hold an average stat line of 11 sacks with off season signing Khalil Mack accounting for 5 whilst also forcing a fumble. Mack’s huge presence is of even more importance now that team captain Joey Bosa is out injured. Their pass defence has let 1149 yards go through the air (14th most) and allows a 9th highest completion rate of 67.2%. That’s something that the struggling Wilson (59/4%) will be delighted to see and will try and utilise as a springboard for success. Their secondary is imposing though with second year Asante Samuel Jr patrolling the boundary and star safety Derwin James racking up an impressive 28 solo tackles. Part of this high stat line is that James is active in the run defence as well and will often blitz. That run D does certainly need his help as they’ve accounted for 130.4 rushing yards allowed per game conceding a league high 5.8 yards per carry. A positive for them is the injuries to the backfield of Denver because otherwise it could be foreseen that Williams and Gordon would terrorise them. On 3 occasions they’ve allowed even more than their 130.4 yard average with the league leading Browns putting up 231 on them, the Jags 151 and Dameon Pierce of the Texans racking up 131 all on his own. It’s unclear so far what a backfield of a not 100% Gordon, Lindsay, Murray and Boone will do to them but this seems a game where Hackett will back his $245 million man and allow Russ to cook in a potential shootout against rising star Justin Herbert of the Chargers.
Herbert has started the season where he left off in his 2nd year and also in his rookie season- he’s on fire and has been ever since the Chargers team doctor somehow punctured 2020 starter Teddy Bridgewater’s lung when administering a simple pain injection. As such Herbert was handed the reins early but hasn't looked back once. He steers an offence that has put up 24.4 points per game surpassing the 20 point mark in all but 1 game and clearing 30 points on 2 occasions. His 1478 passing yards sits him 3rd in the league but with a 2nd best average of 295.6 yards per game. He looks set to push towards or above that 300 yard mark every single game which is testament to the brilliance of the Oregon product. Not just a gunslinger he is efficient with the ball ranking in the top 10 for completion percentage at 66.5% whilst attempting 40 passes a game. He boasts a league 2nd best rate of TDs to INTs (10-2) leaving him with a passer rating of 100.8, surpassed only by his opponents former back up Geno Smith, and then the other two bright lights in the AFC quarterback arms race- Mahomes and Allen. His incredible stat line this year has been done without his number 1 receiver Keenan Allen who has amassed over 8600 yards in his 116 game career. Instead Mike Williams has stepped up and is no longer just the big red zone threat who highpoints balls or goes deep. He’s actually become a number 1 in his own right recording the 11th most receiving yards at a statline of 28 catches on 44 targets for 78.4 yards per game. His 392 yards account for 37.84% of all Chargers air yards and so he will inevitably see coverage from Broncos star cornerback Pat Surtain. Even if he does Surtain will have to track Williams deep as he has recorded 5 plays of over 20 yards- this ability to stretch the field is testament to the accuracy and power that Herbert possesses. Their other big body in the passing game is Gerald Everett racking up 213 yards but seeing almost 6 targets a game, certainly a player to look out for. Even more of an outlying stat is that full back Zander Horvath has 3 catches of 6 targets for a total of only 7 yards but incredibly he has 2 touchdowns. If the Chargers line up using the fullback in the Red Zone expect Horvath to motion out wide and at a monster price of 20/1 he’s worth a quid of anyones money. So incredible is Herbert that the Chargers neglect their run game a lot- in fact star running back Austin Ekeler has seen almost as much work in the backfield as a receiver than as a runner. His 313 ground yards at an average of 5.1 yards per carry dominate the Chargers overall run stats of 496 rush yards at a comparatively tiny 3.9 yards per carry (9th and 6th lowest in the league respectively). Running mates Michel and Kelley both have 23 attempts but for 58 and 104 yards respectively suggesting Michel gets a lot of short yardage downs. Back to Ekeler’s pass production he’s caught an absurd 31 of 33 passes and amassed 214 yards. Even more incredible is that he has 279 yards after the catch. That’s not a typo. Ekeler receives the ball behind the line of scrimmage in check down situations so often that his yards after the catch actually outnumber his total receiving yards by 65 yards. If the Broncos can anticipate this and blitz at the right time they’ll be able to trap the Chargers behind the line of scrimmage and force 3rd and long situations which will be key to winning this game.
That Broncos D will look to do exactly that and they’re more than well equipped to do so. Allowing only 80 points all season they sit 4th for least points conceded however an outlier on this stat line is that they have played two of the five lowest scoring teams and played an array of weak quarterbacks. Not yet have they come up against a monster like Juystin Herbert who as already mentioned averages 295.6 yards per game. Thus far the Broncos have held opposing QBs to a tiny 176.6 yards per game, if they limit Herbert to anything close to this they’ll have given their offence an incredible helping hand at winning the game. This stingy pass defence has only let up 3 touchdowns (tied 2nd fewest) but only has 3 interceptions to show for all their dominance and with Herbert rarely offering up picks they’ll have to find other ways to disrupt him. The likely route to do so will be via sacks as the Broncos sit 6th in the league for most sacks at 17 with Bradley Chubb racking up 5.5, however they come up against an O Line that's only allowed 5 sacks all year- the joint fewest in the league. Coupling that with Herberrs ability to scramble it displays what a difficult task the Broncos have to try and stop him. One impressive stat is that they defend the deep ball well with only 5.2 yards per attempt (2nd lowest) showcasing their ability to frustrate QBs and with the aforementioned Pat Surtain likely one on one with Mike Williams that’s a matchup to look out for. Their run defence on the other hand isn’t the strongest ranking 14th and 21st for yards allowed and yards per carry, however they have faced the 49ers and the Texans who pride their offence on running the ball. In addition they allowed divisional rivals the Raiders to put up 212 ground yards on them- if we remove this outlying stat they would actually only allow 87.5 yards per game on the ground which would rank 4th best. With the Chargers having that low yards per carry rate (6th worst at 3.9) this run defence should hold steadfast against Ekeler and co.
Onto the betting now and the line for this game sits at 4.5 points in favour of the Chargers. Given that typically bookmakers allow a 3 point swing for the home side it appears they actually make this a 1.5 point game something which our stats and analysis disagrees with. Whilst the Broncos defence has been impressive they’ve benefitted from a lowly string of opposing quarterbacks and as referenced two of the five lowest scoring teams have taken them on, thus helping to account for their 16 points per game conceded stat. Coming up against the high scoring Chargers (24.4 PPG) I think it's unreasonable to expect them to continue such staunch defensive performances. One of the best ways their defence has dominated other teams is by putting their opponents in 3rd and long situations via their pass rush and sack ability (17 sacks), but Herbert only being put on the floor 5 times (league lowest) suggests they simply won’t have success against the Chargers O Line. Moreover the Chargers lowly yards per carry is skewed massively by their backup RBs Michel and Kelley, Ekeler still averages 5.1 yards per carry and boasts that insane stat of 31/33 catches. If the O Line can protect Herbert it can certainly open up lanes for Ekeler to expose. That’s the fabled Broncos defence dealt with and I do expect the Chargers to deal with them, consequently we need to work out whether Russ will finally start cooking and get the Broncos offence in a position where they can win a game on their own and not off the back of defensive efforts. The Chargers allowing 27.2 points per game implies that they can be got after and targeted but the scrutiny that Wilson is under at the moment and the fact he clearly hasn’t gelled with Jeudy in addition to an injury crisis in the running back room makes me think he could wilter under the bright lights, as he did in their Thursday Night Football matchup vs the Colts. His 2 interceptions that night and 53.8% pass completion rate was simply embarrassing and if he performs like that again the Broncos don’t stand a chance. Moreover it's not as if the Broncos can expect Herbert to perform like that- the only reason the Colts game was so close for them was because Matt Ryan performed similarly terrible to Russ with 2 interceptions and only 63.4% pass completion. Herbert has 2 interceptions all season and completes at a far better rate, on paper this should be a procession for the Chargers but Head Coach Brandon Staley does have the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with some of his strange calls. I back the Chargers to cover the handicap of 4.5 and foresee the over of 45.5 being hit purely through the Chargers onslaught and likely the Broncos response of McManus field goals. The Chargers to win 31-20 is a scoreline I could align myself with and at 125/1 it's worth a small stakes bet. Unless we see the resurrection of Wilson I think this is a multiple score game in favour of the Chargers and unfortunately it’ll fail to live up to the previous AFC West MNF matchup.
Tips
Chargers -4.5 @Evens
Chargers over 27.5 points @11/8
Ekeler 100 scrimmage yards & a TD @7/4
Zander Horvath TD @20/1 or 2 TDs @150/1 (Very small stakes)
Ekeler & Everett both to score a TD @5/1
Any Request a Bet featuring Herbert over 275, Williams over 60, Ekeler over 80 scrimmage, Sutton over 60, Chargers Win.
Herbert over 264.5 & 2+ passing TDs, Ekeler over 3.5 receptions, Everett over 2.5 receptions, Williams & Sutton over 54.5 receiving yards and Wilson over 32.5 pass attempts & over 14.5 rush yards. @25/1 bet builder with Bet Victor.
Herbert 300+ yards, Williams 75+ yards, Ekeler 5+ receptions, Everett TD & Wilson 25+ rushing yards @95/1 with Bet Victor bet builder.
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