By Sam Cook
Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) @ Cleveland Browns (2-5)
After a major upset last week on Monday Night Football with the 7/2 priced Bears beating the Patriots 33-14 in dominant fashion we are treated to an AFC North divisional matchup that’s a lot harder to split on paper. The money line betting sees hosts, the Browns, as 6/4 underdogs with the visiting Bengals 4/7 favourites. That’s equating to a 3.5 handicap in what does seem set to be a great game- one of the best rushing offences in the league takes on one of the best passing teams, but what seems certain is that there will be points. Five of the last six head to heads have seen 46 points or more with both teams seeing an average of 51.3 (Browns) and 48 (Bengals) 48 points in their last 3 games.
The visiting Bengals started the season with a Superbowl hangover, losing their first two games by 3 points each including an overtime loss to the Steelers in week 1 despite outyarding them 432-267 with Burrow’s 4 interceptions costing them dearly. Since then they’ve racked up 4 wins from 5 with their sole loss being a 19-17 defeat to division leading Ravens with Justin Tucker kicking a last second field goal to win it. Consequently they sit 4-3 and have favourable matchups in their 3 games after this so will hope they can kick on and extend their 2 game winning streak. All their victories have seen them score at least 27 points and they’ll hope to hit that figure again on Monday night to take their record to 5-3.
The Browns have disappointed so far this season but they had clearly expected to be able to utilise new QB Deshaun Watson whom they traded for 3 first rounders and a bunch of later round picks. Instead they’ve been led by career backup Jacoby Brissett who has proved to be an adequate game manager but no more than that. As such they have found themselves on a 4 game losing run having won 2 of their first 3. Starting the season they headed to Carolina to face off with former ‘face of the franchise’ Baker Mayfield who they put away 26-24 with a last minute field goal, despite leading 20-7 at half time. A 1 point loss to the Jets came next before their 2nd and most recent victory against division dwellers the Steelers. Their 4 game losing run has seen them lose three games by 3 points or less but sandwiched in the middle is a blowout loss to the Patriots and rookie QB Bailey Zappe. In these 4 games they’ve allowed 23 points or more each occasion but they face a Bengals side averaging 24.7 PPG so they’ll have their work cut out if they’re to snap their losing streak.
The most interesting part of this game for me is if the Bengals will continue to operate as an elite passing offence without Jamarr Chase. The reigning offensive rookie of the year had over 600 yards so far this season including back to back games of 132 yards and 130 yards. He paired this huge yardage with 2 TDs in each game and had finally announced himself for the 2022 season. Whilst the elite yardage had only come in the last two matches the LSU product had still been commanding targets and is actually the 3rd most targeted wide receiver at just over 10.5 targets a game (3rd behind Tyreek Hill 11 & Cooper Kupp 12). The lead WR role will now be split between Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins with it genuinely unclear who will become Burrows main weapon. The veteran Boyd in his 7th season has just come off a career high 155 receiving yards notching 8 catches on 9 targets and adding a TD into the bag as well. This was an uptick in production as he’d only commanded 29 targets prior to his matchup with the Falcons. He’ll almost certainly continue to see an uptick in targets and look to kick on from his 29 catches on 38 looks, a number that is incredibly similar to that of tight end Hayden Hurst who has also recorded 29 catches but on 39 targets. Hurst has only amassed 226 yards at 32.2 YPG relative to Boyd’s 455 yards at 65 YPG but the big man no longer has an injury designation and looks set to kick on. The other factor in the passing game is the aforementioned Higgins who has the same yardage as Boyd (455) but on 31 catches and for only 2 TDs (Boyd has 3) highlighting he’s not quite been as efficient, but both of them are set to see more attention from secondaries across the league in the absence of Chase. As a result their efficiency is likely to drop by way of yards per catch (15.7 Boyd & 14.7 Higgins) despite this expected increase in targets to make up for Chase’s 10.5 targets a game.
Even without Chase this will terrify the Browns who allow the 4th most PPG at 26.6 including an average of 30.33 PPG over their last 3 games in which they only played one top 10 offence (divisional rivals Ravens). Playing the 8th highest scoring team a week after Burrows threw for 481 yards at an 81% completion rate spells trouble for the Browns. They’ve allowed 210.4 passing yards a game which is average (14th best) however they’ve played a rostrum of QBs including an out of form Lamar (check Thursday Night Preview for Lamar stats), rookie QB Zappe for the Pats, Mariota, Trubisky, Flacco and their old QB Baker Mayfield. This week they face off with Burrows who has the 5th highest passer rating in the league of 102.7 and a TD to INT ratio of 3. Interesting for Burrows is that he put up 4 of his 5 interceptions in week 1, so over the past 6 weeks his stats actually read 13 TDs to only 1 interception. Even worse for the Browns is that they’ve only recorded 2 interceptions all year (only 2 teams have less). They also have an incredibly poor rushing defence, however running the ball isn’t one of the Bengals priorities. Despite a huge volume of carries for Joe Mixon (121) he’s only put up 405 yards which equates to 3.3 YPC, a joint league low for players with over 100 carries. Moreover he’s only put up 2 TDs but may find favour against a Browns side that's allowed a league high 13 rushing TDs. Opposing running backs have put up 135.6 yards a game and the 10th most YPC of 4.7 implying Mixon may have slightly more luck, and again with the absence of Chase and his 10.5 targets a game (accounts for over 16% of Bengals offensive plays per game) means he may well see more carries, or more targets in the passing game. He’s seen an impressive 36 targets and boasts a 75% catch rate with 27 catches for 182 yards showing he’s utilised a lot in 3rd down or check down work. If Mixon does see more of the ball he may well have the breakout game to kickstart his season as the Browns allowed 160 yards and 2 TDs to the Ravens last week and a huge 238 and 2 TDs to the Chargers in week 5. The Bengals do only average 87.4 YPG which is the 5th lowest, but in a tight divisional game it could be a weakness that Zach Taylor’s men target.
That’s both sides of the Bengals offence analysed and for me the standout value is Hayden Hurst. His receptions are tallied at 3.5 which seems huge value given he’s averaging 4.5 catches and 6.5 targets in games where he plays over 50% of snaps. His 6 catches on 8 targets last week only tallied 48 yards so his over for yards might be a risk but for receptions he looks overpriced. Joe Mixon also looks great value at evens for over 3.5 receptions given he averages almost 4 catches a game already and as mentioned about 10 times Chase and his 10.5 targets a game will be missing. Someone has gotta take up that workload and I think Mixon could be the man. Burrows to land his over 267.5 passing yards also looks quite short given the Browns average stats against far worse QBs and Burrows electric form.
Onto the other half of the game and that’s how the Browns, and in particular Nick Chubb, will try and run the ball down the Bengal’s throat all night long. Teams have identities and game scripts and the Browns are one of the most one sided run heavy teams in the league. Their rushing yards account for 43.2% of their total yards per game this season which is the 5th highest of any team in the league (Ravens, Giants, Falcons & Bears the top 4) and of those 1145 rushing yards Nick Chubb accounts for 740. He leads the league and is averaging almost 106 YPG whilst also notching up 8 TDs on the ground. What’s more impressive for Chubb is that he’s doing this at 5.9 YPC which is the highest of any player who has more than 100 rush attempts. The Bengals, like everyone else, will struggle to contain Chubb as they allow 119 rushing yards a game which is actually about average for the league sitting at 15th most allowed. The problem is that when they play strong rushing sides, like the Browns, they ship yards far beyond this average- Saints 228 yards and Ravens 154. The Browns backfield has generally been seen as a two headed monster with Kareem Hunt arguably one of the best RB2s in the league but he has seen a diminished work load and with talks of a trade before the upcoming deadline I expect him to be a non factor. That’s all he has been for the past two games recording only 9 runs for 16 yards and 1 catch for 2 yards on 3 targets. Expect Chubb to increase his carry rate from 17.2 a game, despite the fact he’s only recorded 16, 12 and 17 rushes in his last 3. The Browns were trailing these games and as such reverted to the air- if they keep this close as the betting indicates then he’ll likely trend upwards to his average carry rate of 17.2. Bookmakers seem to be waiting on news of a trade before they price anything up as I can’t find a price for carries but if they’ve lowered him to 15/16 in accordance with his recent performances then I’d be definitely backing the over.
The Browns do still have a solid pass attack albeit it lesser used than most. They’re led by career backup Jacoby Brissett who’s put up 214.4 yards per game ranking 21st in the league. Their points per game ranks 10th at 24 per game mainly on account of their rushing abilities. What’s surprising is that Brissett is one of the more active throwers in the league averaging over 30 attempts a game however this accounts to little with only 6 TDs to his 5 interceptions, and a bottom 10 pass completion rate of 62.7%. The Bengals have only allowed 202.1 passing yards to opposing QBs but have played a similarly weak list of QBs to the Browns. Trubisky, Flacco, Cooper Rush, Teddy B, an out of form Lamar, Andy Dalton and Mariota is arguably easier than the list the Browns have faced and as such it’s no surprise they allow the 9th fewest QB passing yards and the 7th lowest PPG of 18.9. A lot of the Bengals defensive stats are skewed as a result of this including the fact they’ve only allowed 6 passing TDs (only four teams have allowed fewer) but a more revealing stat is only 12 sacks (7th fewest). Their inability to get to the QB has not been punished so far because of the poor QBs they have played but come crunch time in the playoffs they may well struggle. For now though they play Brissett and this deceptive defence may well manage against him particularly given that his most in form receiver, Tight End David Njoku, is out injured. Njoku had a catch rate of over 80% reeling in 34 catches on 42 targets for 418 yards. That efficiency had amounted to 75.8 receiving yards a game in the past 5 weeks and so his loss will be huge. Off season acquisition Amari Cooper will continue to operate as a number 1 WR and has commanded almost 8.5 targets a game but due to drops, poor QB play and double coverage he actually only averages 4.8 catches per game. He’s still turned this into 422 yards and crucially 4 of Cleveland’s 6 receiving TDs, and without the big body of Njoku he could be a huge factor in the redzone. The reason why there has been such few passing TDs is obviously because of the run heavy redzone offence, hence Chubb’s league leading 8 TDs. The Browns have been operating at a 60% redzone efficiency (percentage of times inside the opponents 20 that they convert into a TD) across their last 3, a figure that is dwarfed by the Bengals 77.78% rate. This is indicative of the contrasting form of the two sides, but worth noting that the Bengals 60% isn’t poor- it’s actually above average hence my assumption that we’ll see plenty of points. One worry to that points bet would be the amazing statistic that the Bengals have not conceded a single touchdown in the second half of games this season. In fact they’ve only allowed 30 points total in the 2nd half which is an average of 4.3 whereas the league average is 13.5 points. If the Browns manage to break this record then this game will go to the wire and I expect them to do so because Nick Chubb only becomes more efficient as the game goes on, his explosive and persistent runs draining the energy of the defence.
In regards to the Browns offence and betting trends it’s impossible to ignore the dominance of Nick Chubb, but the problem is the bookies are also aware of this and so have set his line at 82.5. Obviously this is a strong 20 yards below his season average and the absence of Njoku and uncertainty surrounding Hunt implies that he’ll see a lot of the ball therefore I’m taking him on the over for yards, and also attempts should it be priced. One unmentioned beneficiary of the Hunt trade rumours could be third string backs Demetric Feleton and D’Ernest Johnson who could be minimal stakes TD scoring bets at 20/1 a piece. The pair are rarely seen but at such a huge price they could be worth a daft 50p bet each. Replacement tight end Harrison Bryant is another who may benefit but with no betting lines set for him it’s hard to advise- if his over is as low as 1.5 then I’d be all over it but I’d expect it to be set at 2.5.
Concluding thoughts for the game would be that I’d favour a Bengals win- it’s impossible to ignore their impressive second half defensive trend and Burrows enters the game in such form that even without Chase I expect him to put on a very impressive performance. Again I expect points, 5 of the last 6 have surpassed 46 and with the line only set at 45.5 I think it’s well worth backing. The market that’s been of value lately is handicap and points and the Bengals -4.5 and over 47.5 points seems a high price at 7/2. The Bengals have actually only lost their 3 games by a combined 8 points so could consider themselves unlucky not to be in a stronger position and I think this strength will be reflected come Monday night with a victory. Ironically aside from the blowout loss to the Pats the Browns other 4 losses have totalled only 9 points in difference, hence they too may feel unlucky. Divisional matchups are always close and penalty strewn so whilst I do fancy the Bengals nothing would surprise me- see the Bears last week. My score prediction would be 31-24 to the Bengals which is backable at 150/1 but again this is a 50p bet for fun, the tops below are my main suggestions at 1 point win unless specified.
Tips
Bengals -3.5 and over 47.5 points @7/2
Nick Chubb 100+ yards and a TD @9/4 (Quite short but happens so often it’s hard to ignore)
Joe Mixon over 3.5 receptions @Evens
Burrow 270+ passing yards, Chubb 80+ rushing yards, Mixon 50+ rushing yards, Brissett over 0.5 interceptions, Hurst over 2.5 receptions, DPJ 40+ receiving yards & Boyd and Higgins 63+ receiving yards. @33/1 Long Shot Bet Builder with Bet Victor combining 8 overs that I think are too low. 0.25 points advised.
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