By Sam Cook
Buffalo Bills (7-3) @ Detroit Lions (4-6)
The Lions come into this game on a three game winning streak however Buffalo are the side in this matchup that most recently won at Ford Field, Detroit. The heavy snow in Buffalo caused their game against the Browns to be moved to Detroit and they stopped their 2 game losing run by winning 31-23.
Meanwhile Detroit find themselves in a surprising run of form having started the season with a record of 1-6. Three back to back wins will give them confidence but the bookies still make the Bills 10.5 point favourites. This is far too wide for me when you check Buffalo’s last few performances, even when winning they haven’t pulled away whereas the Lions have been within 10.5 points of their opponents in all bar three games (one win two losses).
Both sides are top ten in scoring and of late the Bills defence hasn’t been brilliant either so an over as high as 54.5 is no surprise. The Bills have found a run game of late with Devin Singletary playing for a contract extension with his average creeping up to 48 yards per game. This is courtesy of 85, 67, 47 and 86 yards in four of his last five and I’m taking him to cover his 59.5 line as he comes up against a Detroit side conceding 153.7 rush YPG (2nd worst).
The Lions run game has been built on Jamaal Williams this season with Swift being injured for a lot of it. However even when fit he’s found it hard to shift the veteran Williams who has averaged 66.8 rush YPG but more impressive are his 12 TDs in only 10 games. Williams to be an anytime TD scorer is priced generously at 6/5. Considering the Bills have allowed 147 rush yards to the Vikings and 174 to the Jets in two of their last three, Williams could even be worth taking on the over which is as yet unpriced.
The receiving threats for both teams are standouts with Stefon Diggs and Amon Ra St Brown both being top ten wide receivers this season. Diggs has already passed 1000 yards and has 8 TDs but incredibly the 2nd most receptions in the league with 7.6 receptions a game. He had a down game against Cleveland but still scored a TD, but the week prior he recorded 12 catches for 128 yards. Playing a Lions side allowing the 5th most receiving yards per game (262.2) I’d take him on over receptions and yards, with 100 yards clearly being his target. As for St Brown he’s flourished since Hockenson was traded away. His last four games have seen him total 28 catches on 38 targets for 319 yards and he looks set to be the main man again. That’s an average of almost 80 yards per game so his line has been set at 74.5 however I’d rather back him on receptions which is as yet unpriced.
Tips
Lions +10.5 @10/11
Jamaal Williams anytime TD @6/5
Diggs & St Brown 60+ receiving yards each, Singletary & Williams 60+ rushing yards each @6/1
New York Giants (7-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Two sides with very impressive records face off here however it’s only for 2nd place in the NFC East as they’re chasing the high flying Eagles. That makes this game even more important as both sides will potentially have to make the playoffs via record as opposed to topping their division. The Giants are coming off a shock loss to the Lions whereas the Cowboys enter this game on the back off a hugely impressive 40-3 victory against a Vikings side that only had one loss heading into the game. That huge win and shock loss have combined to price the Cowboys as 8.5 point favourites and I think they’re probably good value at that price, especially with home advantage.
The downfall of the Cowboys has been their rushing defence because prior to the Vikings game they had allowed huge stat lines of 207, 240, 117 and 136.Those figures in the 200s came against the Packers and the Bears but neither side have a running back as dynamic as Saquon Barkley. The Penn State RB has the 2nd most rushing yards in the league with 953 and in the previous game this year against Dallas he rushed for 81 yards and 1 TD. However he only took 14 carries that game whereas he has been averaging 23.2 rushes per game in his last five games. Assuming he were to average 5.8 YPC as he did in the reverse fixture this would set him up for approximately 130 rushing yards. With an over of just 75.5 I think he’s a definite bet.
The Cowboys rush offence this year has been taken over by Tony Pollard in the midst of injuries and poor form of Ezekiel Elliot. Pollard has a rushing average of 70.1 YPG with 6 TDs however across his last four games that average jumps to 102.25 YPG with 80 yards being his lowest total in that period. That makes this next bet a particular favourite of mine and it’s the Sky price boost- Barkley and Pollard both have 75+ rushing yards which is a huge 4/1. Pollard also comes into this game with 2 receiving TDs and 109 yards against the Vikings so backing him for a TD at 10/11 could be a bet but I think a brace at 11/2 represents value given his rush and receiving dual threat.
Daniel Jones quarterbacks the Giants and the lack of receiving talent in that side hasn’t really helped him with veteran Darius SLayton and rookie Wandale Robinson being his key men. Slayton recorded 86 yards and Robinson 100 but playing against lockdown corner Trevon Diggs could limit them as seen by the fact Dallas allow the fewest passing yards in the league at only 174.5 YPG. For the Cowboys it has been all about Ceedee Lamb of late but an uncharacteristically low 45 yards was his return against the Vikings. In the four games prior to that he had recorded 20 catches for a total of 297 yards and 3 TDs. With QB Prescott fully fit now I expect Lamb to have a huge game against a Giants defence that allowed 286 passing yards against the Texans only two games ago. The Texans had averaged only 181 passing YPG outside of that performance so it’s fair to assume the Cowboys could throw all over them, and Lamb will clear his 68.5 receiving yard line.
Tips
Pollard & Barkley both 75+ rushing yards @4/1
Prescott 250+ pass yards, Lamb 80+ receiving yards & barkley 80+ rushing yards @9/2
Cowboys minus 8.5 @10/11
New England Patriots (6-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-2)
The Vikings will be glad they get a chance to have a quick turnaround and try to put their embarrassing loss to the Cowboys behind them. Prior to that they’d gone into Buffalo and beaten the highly touted Bills in what many have already declared the game of the season. On the other side the Patriots have found their form with three wins in succession including Sunday’s low scoring 10-3 win against the Jets, the only points coming via field goals and then a punt return in the last minute for the Pats to seize victory. They’ll need that high level defence to be on show again against a Vikings offence that ranks 13th for PPG at 22.9, no doubt harmed by their 3 point showing against Dallas. The problem would be that the Pats have the 4th fewest passing yards allowed at only 188.3 per game so Kirk Cousins will have to be in his best form to secure this win.That’s a win that the bookies expect making the Vikings slight favourites at -2.5 but with only 42.5 over/under points they, like me, expect a tight affair.
Onto Cousins and he’s been incredibly up and down this season, his performance against the Bills saw him pass for 357 yards, the main beneficiary being Justin Jefferson, however against the Cowboys he recorded just 105 yards and was sacked 7 times. Jefferson will again be his main weapon as he records 7.2 catches a game and an incredible 109.3 yards per game, whether this can be replicated against a supreme pass defence it unknown. However I’d still take Jefferson to make an explosive play and because of this I think he will cover his yards of 84.5. Key to beating the Patriots would be the run game and that’s in good form with Dalvin Cook finally finding his feet this season. Cooks put up statistics of 77, 111, 119 and 72 in four of his last five games and has averaged 85.2 rush yards per game during this five game period. With the Pats conceding 114.5 rush yards per game this could be exposed.
For the Patriots the focus on offence has been clear, it’s the Rhamondre Stevenson show and failing that they’ve got Damien Harris returning from injury. Stevenson has averaged 64.4 yards on the ground but he’s also on incredible receiving form making an average of 6 catches a game over his last four for a total of 197 yards. Backing him on over receptions seems to be the way to bet lately with his line typically set around 3.5, of which he has cleared on four occasions in his last five. This week it is again set at over 3.5 priced at 8/11 which I’m definitely backing. On the returning Harris he made 65 ground yards on only 8 carries against the Jets meaning an incredible average of 8.1 yards per carry. If he can get considerable touches then his over will be worth backing but is unpriced at the time of writing.
I think this game will be very close but it comes down to whether I trust Cousins of Jones more and for me it has to be Cousins. For the Patriots to win I think they’ll have to rely heavily on their defence but even so the Vikings have so many weapons to cover. I haven’t
even mentioned the TE T.J. Hockenson who has been incredible since joining. Hockenson has averaged 49.4 yards per game with the Vikings and has receiving stats of 5/9, 7/10 and 9/9. Take the over on targets because Hockenson is dominant at the catch point. It’s unpriced at the moment but a line of 4.5 or even 3.5 represents value to take the over in my opinion.
Tips
Vikings -2.5 @10/11
Stevenson over 3.5 receptions @8/11
Jefferson & Myers 60+ receiving yards each, Cook & Stevenson 60+ rushing yards each @6/1
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