By Aidan Smyth
It’s the game many people saw being the final, and one we all hope lives up to expectations, with both sides absolutely littered with quality.
India were beaten by South Africa and pushed to the very last ball by Pakistan but have been otherwise fairly convincing. England's shock defeat to Ireland meant they were under big pressure against NZ and Sri Lanka but came through both those games to book their place in the semifinal.
First and foremost I am backing India to knock England out here at 4/5. India have won the last 4 t20 series between the sides, albeit all by a single game, but the fact they have such a good recent record tilts it in their favour. Further to this, there is rumours that Mark Wood may miss the semi final. Wood provides England with that express pace that they don’t otherwise have and is their 2nd top wicket taker in the tournament so far, losing him is a massive blow, and one that really puts England up against it.
Skybet have also priced up Bhuvneshwar Kumar to take the wicket of Jos Buttler at 11/4, and this really appeals to me. Buttler has faced a total of 32 balls from Bhuvi in all t20 games, scoring 30 runs, but being dismissed 5 times, averaging just 6. No other bowler in world cricket has dismissed the England skipper more then 3 times in t20’s, which emphasises the struggles he has when faced with Kumar. If the ball swings early in the innings, which it has in most games, 11/4 could be fantastic value.
The doubts over Buttler vs Kumar, and whether Malan will be fit or not means I’m happy to leave the top England batsman markets alone and focus on the bowlers. Sam Curran is 3/1 to top the wicket taking for England and that is massive to me, he has been the shining light with the ball for England, taking 10 wickets already. Despite the fact India have finished innings strongly in this tournament, Sam Curran has probably been the best bowler in the tournament when combining wickets and economy at the death and it would be no surprise to see him win this market again.
If Malan is missing it remains to be seen what England do with the batting order. If Salt comes in will Hales drop to 3? Either way with so much uncertainty in the england side, Curran would also be my pick to be player of the match, should England make the final. He is priced at 11/1, a bigger price then Salt, who is yet to play a match, despite being arguably the stand out player in the tournament so far. India will also fear Curran, not only has he performed well for the giant IPL franchise Chennai Super Kings, but he was also voted player of the series in the 2018 test series by the Indian team, which many of these Indian players played in, when he was barely out of his teens. He is a genuine all-rounder, who can affect the game in all 3 disciplines and if England do make the final, Curran will be key to that.
For India it’s an embarrassment of riches when talking about their batting. Suryakumar Yadav is the number 1 ranked batsman in the world and has shown why in this tournament. His 61 off 25 against Zimbabwe was one of the most breathtaking innings of the tournament, and his 68 vs SA in a losing cause was equally as impressive in difficult conditions. He top scored in both of the games mentioned above and at 4/1 I cannot believe the price he is to do so again here. Virat Kohli has been majestic in this tournament and has a World Cup record that makes the eyes water, averaging over 80, but SKY has been so consistent of late, that the 4/1 on him is too good to pass up.
With the ball I have already mentioned Kumars record against Buttler and it would be easy to opt for him as a result, but I’m instead going for Ravi Ashwin at 9/2 for the Indians. Against New Zealand the england batsman absolutely demolished the seam attack, but really struggled against the spinners and it wouldn’t surprise me to see similar here. Ashwin is the only Indian spinner to play every game and although he hasn’t been as prolific in the wickets as Arshdeep, he’s still taken 6 wickets to date, and 9/2 seems to represent good value on the tricky off spinner. He is also 18/1 to be player of the match and if India win and he takes a couple of wickets it’ll be tough to look past him.
Best bets
India to win - 4/5
Bhuvneshwar Kumar to dismiss Buttler - 11/4
Sam Curran top England wicket taker - 3/1
Sam Curran man of the match - 11/1
Suryakumar Yadav top India run scorer - 4/1
Ravi Ashwin top India wicket taker - 9/2
Ravi Ashwin man of the match - 18/1
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