By Aidan Smyth
The two pre-tournament favourites clash here in the most important game of the tournament so far, where the loser will face a huge uphill struggle to stay in the competition, particularly if England are to lose, with a game against New Zealand still to come.
Following defeat to Ireland, England are now 0-4 at the MCG in t20 internationals, but the way they bowled in the first 10 overs against Ireland, and struggled for timing with the bat, will be the biggest concern for captain Buttler.
Australia were hugely disappointing against New Zealand, where Allen obliterated their seam attack early on, but they bounced back against Sri Lanka, and Stoinis brutal batting display, including 4 fours and 6 sixes, in his 18 balls, saw them cruise to a fairly simple victory, with over 3 overs left to spare.
The batting woes for England against Ireland will be concerning, Malan top scored with 35, but he struggled for timing massively, and didn’t look his usual self. He is, however, England’s most consistent batsman at the moment, and I would be looking to him again to top score against the Aussies.
Despite struggling against Ireland, his last four scores still read 82, 23, 18, 35, and this is by far the most promising form in the side. Buttler has just 18 in the first two games, Stokes received a beauty against Ireland but he himself only has 8, and Hales has reached double figures just once in his last 5 innings. Malan is in by far the best form of the top 4, and I’m backing him again to top score.
With the ball, it’s difficult to look much further then Wood and Curran for England, and despite my love affair with Curran so far this tournament, I’m opting for Mark Wood to be the top wicket taker for England. So far at the MCG the quick bowlers have shone, Wood took 3 wickets against Ireland, Rauf had 2 against India, and I’m backing that trend to continue here. Wood has also taken at least 2 wickets in his last 5 games, clearly he was beaten by Curran in the first game with the latter taking 5, but should Wood extend that record to 6 matches, it’ll be tough for another England bowler to top him.
For the Aussies, the top three hasn’t yet fired, yes Finch was unbeaten against Sri Lanka, but 31 off 42, is hardly the most convincing knock ever, and Stoinis was the one down the order that saw them home. Therefore, I’m opting for a middle order batsman at slightly higher odds to top score for the Aussies and I’m going for Glenn Maxwell.
The Big Show hasn’t been in the best of form of late, but he has shown glimpses and back on his home ground, he can ignite his World Cup campaign. It was less then a year ago when Maxwell smashed a record breaking 154 off just 64 balls on this ground in a Big Bash game, an innings that included 22 boundaries, and his ability to score in all areas of the pitch could be crucial on a big surface against the England bowlers.
The player of the match market is also of interest here, because batsmen have struggled so far on this pitch, the batsman who have scored well have taken the player of the match, Kohli against Pakistan being a prime example, and so I am backing Dawid Malan to perform in tough conditions and see England home with a player of the match performance.
Best bets:
Dawid Malan player of the match - 14/1
Dawid Malan top England batsman - 9/2
Mark Wood top England wicket taker - 3/1
Glenn Maxwell top Australia batsman - 11/2
Dawid Malan top England and Glenn Maxwell top Australia batsman - 33/1
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