By Aidan Smyth
Australia v New Zealand
08:00 @ Sydney Cricket Ground
Australia are the tournament favourites and their power packed side looks extremely strong. New Zealand are always very consistent in these tournaments and despite being outsiders to qualify due to the brilliance of England and Australia, they’ll also be looking to senior men Williamson and Boult to get them off to a flyer.
The first market I have looked at is the most sixes. Australia are 4/5 with QuinnBet to hit more sixes then their opposition and this is a price I am willing to take. The power the Aussies have down the order is absolutely frightening, Stoinis, Maxwell, and David can all clear the rope with absolute ease, and with career strike rates of 145, 150, and 160 in t20 international games, the Aussies will be looking for these three to fire some maximums towards the back end of the innings.
My more speculative punt comes in the player of the match market where Adam Zampa is being hugely overlooked down at 14/1. The Aussie ace spinner is almost guaranteed to bowl his maximum 4 overs, which you certainly want when looking at bowling bets. Zampa has a career t20 international economy of just 6.65 when bowling in Australia, and averages over a wicket per game on home turf.
There is a high chance of rain playing a part here, so I would be very cautious with stakes, but if the rain does come into play, New Zealand’s aggressive intent towards the spinner could play right into his hands.
My best bets are:
Australia most sixes - 4/5
Adam Zampa player of the match - 14/1
England v Afghanistan
12:00 @ Optus Stadium
The second game on Saturday sees Jos Buttler’s England team take on Afghanistan and if England are going to come through this game, they’ll need to see off spinning sensation Rashid Khan with as little damage as possible.
Both my bets in this game come in the same market, and that’s the top team wicket taker market. Rashid Khan is widely seen as the best t20 bowler in the world, so I was very surprised to see a price as big as 3/1 on him to be the top Afghan wicket taker here.
I wouldn’t expect England to lose lots of wickets, particularly if they end up chasing, so Rashid Khan may only need a couple of wickets to win in this market, and in his only previous game vs England, he took 2-17. He has an international t20 average of just 14, and an economy rate of 6.24, so despite being hard to score off, he still has the ability to take wickets, despite players attempting to see him off. In 71 international games, he has already picked up four 4 wicket hauls and a couple of 5 wicket hauls, and if he brings his best game on Saturday, the 3/1 will look very big indeed.
My pick from the English side is Behind the Odds favourite Sam Curran. Tipped to be top tournament wicket taker and top English wicket taker in previous posts, it is little surprise to see him here to be top wicket taker on Saturday.
The injury to Reece Topley means England are left with just Willey and Curran as left arm options, and given the golden form Sam Curran has showed in the lead up to the tournament, it would be a huge surprise if he were not in the team come Saturday.
Curran was the top wicket taker in the Pakistan series for England, and followed that up with 3 wickets in the first game against Australia. His variations at the death make him a nightmare for opposition batsmen, and if the Afghanistan lower order try to take Curran on, it would be no surprise to see him pick up a few wickets and get off to a flier in the tournament.
My Best bets are:
Rashid Khan top Afghanistan wicket taker - 3/1
Sam Curran top England wicket taker - 7/2
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