By Tom Kimsey
Aston Villa v Chelsea:
14:00KO @ Villa Park
Aston Villa head into this game on a four-match unbeaten run, which includes a 1-1 draw against title favourites Man City. However 7 goals and only 30 shots on target this season highlight that Villa are struggling at the top end of the field. All 7 goals have been scored by 7 different players, and therefore I can't see Villa putting up much of a challenge against Chelsea that just won away in Milan.
Chelsea find the net 1.63 times and have an average of 11.4 shots per game. In what looks to be an upward curve for Chelsea, Graham Potter will be looking to improve on his managerial record of W1 D2 against Villa. Injuries to Fofana and James will not be too much of a concern thanks to the squad depth available, but we can expect to see less chances from the right hand side with the loss of James. 4/5 is a generous price for a team that has won their last 4 games in all competitions.
My best bet for this game:
- Chelsea to win (4/5)
Leeds v Arsenal:
14:00 @ Elland Road
Top of the table Arsenal head to Elland Road on Sunday afternoon, and will be confident in taking 3 points back down south with them. Only Man City have scored more than Arsenal's 23 goals this season, and with 12 goals in their last 4 against Leeds, we can expect Arsenal to build upon their average of 2.55 goals per game. Jesus comes into this game in decent form, taking 3.48 shots per game and scoring 5 goals so far this season, it is likely he will be playing a key role in the Arsenal front line once again.
Leeds on the contrast have failed to win any of their last 5 Premier League games, which has seen them drop to 14th in the table. With 2.1 yellows per game, Leeds have the 6th worst disciplinary record this season. Facing an Arsenal flying high, and an attack packed with pace, it is likely we see a number of Leeds players in the book. Add in the factor that Leeds have a tackle success rate of 60% I like 11/4 on Leeds to have over 3.5 cards.
My best bets for this game:
- Jesus to score anytime (1/1)
- Leeds to have over 3.5 cards (11/4)
Man United v Newcastle:
14:00 @ Old Trafford
5th place Man United face 6th place Newcastle in what should be the pick of the 14:00 kick-offs. Newcastle boast the joint best defence in the league with just 9 goals conceded this season, combined with an exciting front line, Newcastle have seen an exact average of 3 goals per match played. Playing on the back of a 5-1 win against Bournemouth, Eddie Howe will eye this trip to Old Trafford as a statement making opportunity. If they can convert more of their 6.75 shots on target per game, they may find themselves with an opportunity to return to Tyneside with a point or three.
United come into this game winning 8 of their last 10 in all competitions, however there is still a cloud of judgement floating over this Ten Hag side that lost 6-3 to rivals Man City two weeks ago. It's not all doom and gloom for the Devils as Antony, Rashford and the return of Martial look to be a real threat going forward. With an expected 1.81 goals scored between the three of them, we can expect them to create numerous chances, even against the best defence in the league. With a result that is hard to predict, I'm turning to the shots on target markets to try and find some value in this game.
My best bets for this game:
- Man United to have 6 or more shots on target (4/5)
- Antony to have 2 or more shots on target (9/5)
- Newcastle to have 4 or more shots on target (1/2)
Southampton v West Ham:
14:00 @ St. Mary's Stadium
Ralph Hassenhuttl will be heading into this game with doubts over his job security following 4 straight defeats. 1 goal scored and 8 conceded does not bold well for a side set to face a West Ham that are starting to find some form. Wins against Fulham and Wolves alongside home and away victories v Anderlecht will have given David Moyes and his players the confidence to go into this game expecting to win.
New players Scamacca and Paqueta have bolstered Moyes's available options, and it has come at the right time as fatigue from Europe will see West Ham make numerous rotations before and during this game. With an unknown line-up I still expect West Ham to get the job done at 7/5 v a Southampton side struggling in all departments. 1.89 goals conceded per game, in addition to an attack only finding the net 0.89 times a game highlights the form in which the Saints find themselves, and it is not likely to get any better against West Ham.
My best bet for this game:
- West Ham to win (7/5)
Liverpool v Man City
16:30 @ Anfield
In what is set to be the fixture of the weekend, Jurgen Klopp couldn't have wished for a worse time to play Pep Guardiola's Man City. Riddled with injuries, Klopp will be forced to play a weakened defence against the Premier Leagues most dangerous attack. 33 goals in 9 games,15 of which come from star man Erling Haaland, Man City will be licking their lips at the opportunity that lays in front of them. Failing to win any of their last 4 head to heads, it is unlikely City will find a better opportunity than this to take 3 points away from Anfield.
Liverpool won't write themselves off completely, especially on the back of a 7-1 thumping midweek over Rangers. A result that saw Salah score the fastest Champions League Hat-trick ever. However Jurgen will be fully aware of the danger that City possess. With Liverpool conceding first in 10 of their last 12 Premier League games, and Man City scoring 11 of their 33 goals in the opening 30 minutes of games, it is vital Liverpool don't let City get off to a flying start.
But... City have this seasons cheat code in the form of Erling Haaland. 38 shots, 21 on target and 15 goals so far this season has seen all the headlines focus on one man, and although I expect Haaland to be heavily involved in front of goal, I expect unsung hero Phil Foden to dictate this game. With 6 goals and 3 assists in the opening 9 games, Pep Guardiola has overseen incredible development in Foden's game. 23/10 to have 2 or more shots on target and 21/10 to score anytime, I like both of these bets (subject to any strange Pep rotation).
Overall I see nothing other than a Man City win in what has recently been a title deciding match up. Injuries and poor form have crippled any chance Liverpool would have had winning this game, and unless Klopp pulls off a masterclass, 4/5 for a City win looks to be a great bet
My best bets for this game:
- Man City win (4/5)
- Phil Foden to have 2 or more shots on target (23/10)
- Phil Foden to score anytime (21/10)
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