By Sam Cook
Brighton Vs Aston Villa
14:00 @ Amex Stadium
Brighton (4/5) Draw (14/5) Aston Villa (16/5)
Hosts Brighton have a chance to extend their winning run to 4 and solidify their position firmly in the top half of the table. Two of those wins came against former manager Graham Potter’s Chelsea and then league leader’s Arsenal in the cup midweek.
Villa have new management in town and Emery got them to a winning start last week with an impressive 3-1 win against Manchester United. This looks set to be competitive and I like the player bookings angle for betting. Villa have drawn the 2nd most fouls across the whole league this year at 11.85 per game, whilst also conceding the 4th most at 12.
Against United they only conceded 6 due to their dominant position but those that they did commit drew 3 yellow cards. Key candidates include Tyrone Mings who is a 90 minute man and will have the task of dealing with Leandro Trossard who has drawn fouls in each of his last 4. Douglas Luiz averages 1.2 fouls per game and will be battling in the middle of the park with Brighton’s most likely candidates to commit fouls- Alexis Mac Allister and Moises Caicedo.
The Argentine has stats of 1.2 fouls per 90 whilst being fouled 1.4 times seeing yellow 4 times already this season. Meanwhile Caicedo has seen yellow in 3 of his last 5, commits a huge 2.2 fouls a game and also draws 1.4. Caicedo has committed the joint most fouls this season with 28 so far. I expect that middle of the field battle to be very heated in what should be a close game. More interesting is the fact that Brighton and Villa share the lead for most goals in the first 15 minutes of PL games at 6 a piece. If we see an early goal then we’re even more likely to see yellow as players chase the game.
Best Bets
Caicedo 3s
Mac Allister 3s
Douglas Luiz 7/4
Mings 5/2
Fulham VS Manchester United
14:30 @ Craven Cottage
Fulham (14/5) Draw (11/4) Manchester United (9/10
Erik ten Hag will want a positive response to his side’s disappointing loss to Villa and a game against Fulham should be easy an easy opportunity to rectify that loss, however Fulham did manage to push Man City to the 95th minute last week and were unlucky to lose. The one downside for Fulham fans and also for bookings fans would be Mitrovic. There are question marks over whether or not he will be playing as he is at the centre of a club vs country row. The Serbian has seen yellow 4 times already this season but it’s reported he won’t play- he draws 1.3 fouls a game whilst committing 1.1 but his argumentative nature often sees him talk his way into the book. He’s still worth backing at 2/1 as money will be refunded if he doesn't start.
He could have been the main source of Fulham bookings because United are actually the least fouled side in the league averaging only 7 fouls drawn per game. However Bobby Reid has been deployed as a right back of late, despite typically playing striker or right wing, and I think his matchup against an in form Marcus Rashford is sure to lead to fouls. Reid has committed 3 fouls in his last two games and Rashford has scored 3 in 5 so expect Reid to resort to the dark arts of fouling to stop him.
Andreas Pereira is worth noting as a former United player and a man who has picked up 3 yellows already, his battle with Casemiro will be very interesting but he’s priced very short at just 13/8 and fellow midfield man Joao Palinha is also unbackable at 11/8. Potentially a duo for bet builders along with results and/or shooting stats. It is worth noting that Palinha has attempted the most tackles in the league so far (56) and won the most tackles (34). Tyrell Malacia is expected to start at right back which may be uncomfortable for him and facing the overlapping Antonee Robinson and PL veteran Willian he may increase his 1.4 fouls per game average and see yellow consequently.
Best Bets
Mitrovic 2s
Bobby Reid 10/3
Malacia 3s
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