Nottingham Forest v Manchester United
Wednesday 20:00 @ City Ground
Forest (19/4) Draw (11/4) United (4/6)
Tonight marks the first leg of the second EFL cup semi-final and strugglers Nottingham Forest welcome the high-flying Manchester United to the City Ground.
United suffered a knock in form with their loss to league leaders Arsenal on Sunday but that was their first loss in 12 games, albeit marking a second consecutive game without a win following an impressive nine-match winning streak. Erik ten Hag's men will fancy their chances here against a side that have failed to beat them in their past eight meetings, dating all the way back to 1994. As for Forest it's been a bumpy ride since the return from the World Cup as they've failed to string two results together at any point, be it two consecutive wins, draws or losses. That said they are unbeaten in their last three having crashed out of the FA Cup in embarrassing fashion, 4-1, to Championship Blackpool.
For all their struggles Forest actually sit in 13th, four points clear of the relegation zone, and for Steve Cooper's men and the Forest faithful a cup final would be an incredible achievement and one that will certainly distract from their possible league status. Expect a strong line-up with Forest keen to return to Wembley for the first time since their promotion-securing victory over Huddersfield Town back in May. For United though they're fighting on many fronts, top four is the clear target in the league and something they're more than capable of, a home game in the fourth round of the FA Cup also awaits before their all-important Europa League tie against European giants Barcelona.
Despite fighting on four fronts United have clicked so well since the departure of Ronaldo, including a 3-0 win over Forest in December, that they'll fancy themselves even with a rested squad hence they're priced as 4/6 favourites with Forest rank outsiders at 19/4. I'd expect United to bounce back and win to nil, something they've done in five of their seven wins since returning from the World Cup break, with BinkBet pricing that at a generous 8/5.
Into the stats though and Forest have faced teams in the current top five (Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle, Manchester United and Tottenham) once each in the league and their record across those games reads as five losses. Even worse than that is the goals they've shipped in the process with the aggregate score being 18-0 so the Red Devils to score three goals, which is below the average that Forest concede when facing top tier opposition and the same total that they shipped just four weeks ago against United, is another bet I like and one that's priced just above 9/4.
With the potential for youth to flourish tonight I'd like to see ten Hag play youngster Garnacho, especially considering that the Argentine put in a solid 30 minute cameo against Forest in December. Since then the tricky winger has scored against rivals Manchester City as well as Bournemouth, showing an eye for goal. Starting two of the three EFL cup games so far he's averaged 2.3 shots per game and also registered two assists. Given the freedom he can flourish and lined up against the defensively weak Serge Aurier and Renan Lodi I expect him to run riot. Garnacho - anytime goal at 11/4, book it!
In terms of Forest specific in game bets I quite like the look of corners for them, something that BinkBet have price boosted to 7/5 for five or more corners. That's something that Forest have achieved in all four of their EFL Cup games with an average of 5.8 corners per match as well as something they've achieved in three of their last four games in any competitions (6, 3, 6, 7). Moreover the head to head game with United saw both sides reach an incredible nine corners and whilst it's unlikely to happen again it can be backed at huge odds of 17/2 for 15 or more corners.
We've already profiled Garnacho but United have plenty of other skilful players and that tends to equate to them drawing fouls and it also happens that Ryan Yates, the Forest central midfielder, has committed the most fouls in the Premier League all season with a whopping 37. That equates to 2.39 per game or one every 37 minutes. Take advantage of the 9/4 price before it goes. Sam Surridge is a lad who plays a lot less but with three fouls in his sole appearance, he's one to look out for at 11/2 if he starts whilst the full-backs that will face Garnacho up are both priced at 10/3.
Tips
Manchester United to win to nil - 8/5
Manchester United to win 3-0 - 11/1
Garnacho to score - 11/4
Forest over 4.5 corners - 7/4
Ryan Yates to be booked - 9/4
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