By Sam Cook
The AFC East is one of the most exciting divisions in football at the moment with all four sides having a winning record. The Bills lead the way on account of their victory over the Dolphins who are also 8-3 and in a rare sight over the past 20 years the Pats sit bottom, the Jets third with a 7-4 record. As a result this matchup in Foxboro could swing things massively for playoff implications. For the Bills it’s the first of three divisional games in a row with three wins almost certain to ensure they make the playoffs, so getting that run off to a good start is imperative.
The Bills come into New England as favourites and the bookies have given them a 3.5 point head start, whilst setting the over/under for points at 43.5. The most recent game between these sides saw the Bills hit that over themselves as they swept aside the Pats in last years playoffs 47-17. The meeting before that in Foxboro though saw the Patriots upset the Bills 14-10 in a game played in horrific conditions. Mac Jones passed for 19 yards as the Pats abandoned the pass game completely and rushed all night long for 222 yards. Tonight it’s expected to be cold at minus two but wind is believed to be limited which should leave us with some passing.
In terms of passing the Bills have Josh Allen who ordinarily you’d expect to pass for 300 yards plus and multiple TDs. However of late Allen has been underperforming and a New England defence coached by Bellichek could catch Allen at a bad time. Allen is averaging 289.4 passing yards per game, but in his last five games he’s only passed this once and recorded three games with 220 passing yards or fewer. More worryingly are the seven interceptions in the last five games, relative to only six TDs. Facing a Patriots defence that ranks ninth for fewest passing yards allowed at only 198.5 pass YPG the Bills may have to resort to the run game. That hasn’t been an issue for Allen lately who has gone past 75 yards in three of his last five and averaged 60.8 rush YPG in that period. If the wind plays any part like last year, not expected as of now, then Allen will use his legs even more so I think the over 42.5 is a good bet. Other than the game against the Browns he’s surpassed this figure in all of the last five games and in fact I really like the price boost on Sky that sees Allen, Singletary and Stevenson all to record 50 plus rushing yards. Priced at 11/2 I think that represents very nice value and can be a nice return of small stakes as well.
On the topic of Singletary and Stevenson it’s worth checking both these RBs and they’re both set to lead their side’s backfield. Damien Harris has been listed as out for the Patriots so Stevenson will take control, and Singletary has been in control all since but especially since the trade of Zach Moss for Nyheim Hines with Hines only really seeing special teams touches. Stevenson saw an off week for touches against the Vikings on Thanksgiving carrying only seven times. Instead he caught the ball nine times, something we backed, and I do expect a lot of receiving again given that he now averages 5.5 catches a game in his last five and a huge 54.6 receiving YPG. Because of that receiving output Stevenson has been a dream to have in fantasy but has been difficult at times to back as a pure runner. His last two outings have seen 36 and 26 yards however last week was his first low carry game. That was seemingly a game plan against the Vikings with Jones throwing a season high 39 times (Vikings concede the most pass YPG), but with a return to his average 14.25 carries per game (Weeks 7-11) then he’s sure to surpass this total of 50 yards. For Buffalo Singletary has found a rich vein of form and it’s no coincidence that it comes in line with a potential contract renewal at the end of the year. Across his last four games, excluding the loss to the Jets where the run was abandoned (8 carries for 24 yards) Singletary has carried the ball an average of 14.75 times for an average YPG of 68, whilst also passing 50 yards in three of those four games. This is a man who McDermott is starting to trust with only two fumbles all year compared to five in 2021. I likely won’t back him individually for yards but I think both his and Stevenson’s recent stats show that the price boost of Allen, Singletary and Stevenson is well worth a couple of quid at the least at 11/2.
That’s ticked off running backs and not to trust Allen on current form, or Mac Jones on any form, so onto the receivers and tight ends now. The Bills main man is obvious, Stefon Diggs is averaging just under 101 YPG and ranks third for total receiving yards between Hill and Jefferson. However, unlike in previous seasons he’s become a TD scorer as well, tallying nine which equals Hill (four) and Jefferson (five) combined. With two TDs in his last two I like him to score anytime, but priced at just 11/10 he’s maybe a little short. I’d advise a small single but I think value can be found when it comes to receptions. Diggs has seen lots and lots of attention this year from his QB but also from opposition DBs. Averaging 10.8 targets per game over his last five, the former Viking is catching an average of seven balls per game and even with an out of form Allen, a strong Patriots defence and cold that will lend itself to running the ball I think Diggs will get the looks required to surpass his yardage over line of 81.5, He thrives in the big time and this is a big test for the Bills, lose and Miami take the division lead and head into Buffalo in week 15 with the belief they can also beat the Bills. Gabe Davis has been incredibly hit and miss this season but I think this game could be a big hit. I don’t particularly expect lots of catches, but big yardage plays are something I can see as he’ll stretch the field. With a line of 48.5 and an average reception of 16.6 yards theoretically he only needs 3 catches and the former UCF playmaker has averaged five in his last three games. For the Pats the main man lately has been Jakobi Meyers, he’s consistently performed and whilst he may not be set to record the most yards he’s generally safe yards. Across his last four he’s averaged 5.25 catches per game and 54 yards, whilst clearly 50 yards on three of the four occasions. The bookies obviously know this and have set his line at 50.5 but I’d be tempted to take it as he plays a beat up Bills secondary and I’d also be tempted by a bet builder of Diggs, Meyers and Davis all to record 50 plus yards - similar to the rushing bet. This is priced at 14/5 on Bet Victor, but when you add in the three rushing players to create a six fold we get odds of 23/1. I think that price is reflective of the bookies being incredibly tight but I wouldn’t put anyone off it, and obviously lines can be increased and/or added.
In terms of defences both sides are very impressive ranking fifth and sixth for feast points per game conceded with the Bills allowing 18.1 PPG and the Pats 18.4. New England impressively rank in the top 10 for both rushing and passing defence (measuring by way of fewest yards allowed) sitting ninth for both rushing (109.3 YPG) and passing (198.5 PPG). By contrast the Bills have slipped out of the top 10 for passing yards allowed and are in fact closer to the bottom 10. They rank 19th allowing 221.6 pass YPG and that’s crept up on account of recent performances allowing 240 pass yards to the Lions, 324 to the Browns and 357 to the Vikings across their last three games. Mac Jones hasn’t been great this year but facing a Bills who will be depleted with star Von Miller confirmed out, and at least four other players remaining unspecified, Jones might just have to be average.
I think this will be a close game, the Bills only really play in close games at the moment - at least by way of scoreline. Only one of their last six games has been a two score game, twice losing by three points as well. The Patriots are more boom or get busted though with a 19 point loss to the Bears and a 23 point victory over the Colts in their last five. The trend for beating the Pats is clear, and as stupid as it sounds you need to score points. All of their six wins this season have seen their opposition score 17 points or less. Any score above 17 and they lose. So for Buffalo it’s simply a race to 18, a score they’ve surpassed in 9 of their 11 games. For that reason I can’t look past the Bills but with the number of close games they’ve seen I’m tempted to leave the handicap alone. Instead I think there’s value in my favourite market which is the handicap and points market. The Pats to win +7.5 and over 46.5 points would be my bet with a score prediction of 27-22 and another Nick Folk kicking masterclass as he racks the field goals up.
Best Bets:
Bills Money Line @1/2
Allen, Singeltary and Stevenson all 50 plus rushing yards @11/2
Davis, Diggs and Meyers all 50 plus receiving yards @14/5
Diggs anytime TD @11/10 - combine with +4.5 receptions for larger odds
Rhamondre Stevenson over 4.5 receptions @Evens
Devin Singletary over 12.5 rush attempts @8/11
Nick Folk over 6.5 kicking points@ 17/20
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