By Sam Cook
49ers (3-2) @ Falcons (2-3)
The 49ers made the wise decision to keep Jimmy G to act as an experienced backup to their inexperienced 2nd year QB Trey Lance (only had 318 passing attempts in college) and it paid dividends when Lance unfortunately went down and was ruled out for the season. Since then Garoppolo has seen the team go 3-1 but he is merely a game manager for the 49ers strength is their defence. Over 5 games they have allowed a measly 61 points (tied league lowest) and have racked up a monstrous 21 sacks, led by Nick Bosa who holds 6 and looks set to challenge for the defensive player of the year award. Bosa is questionable this weekend which would be huge for Falcons QB Marcus Mariota who takes a league 29th ranked time to throw of 3.03 seconds. In part this is because of his desire to scramble and run, but also due to the bare bones receiving corps he has at hand. Star 2nd year tight end Kyle Pitts is being utilised more as a blocker and the off season losses of Russel Gage (to the Buccs) and season ending injury to gadget man Cordarelle Patterson means a passing game has not been established. This is evident through Mariota holding the 2nd highest average completed and intended air yards at 7.6 and 10.3 behind Saints gunslinger Jameis Winston. Simply put Mariota is taking more deep shots than 30 other QBs in the league yet is ranked 30th for 5 game starters in total yards at only 185.2 yards per game, as well as 4 total interceptions. Expect more picks and a heavy reliance on the run game vs a defence that's allowed the fewest passing TDs (2) and also made 5 interceptions. Rookie Tyler Allgeier looks set to take a high snap percentage so hitting him on the over for rush attempts may be wise. Offensively for the 49ers expect heavy rushing with Jeff Wilson ranking 9th in ground yards on the year but Jimmy G could take the restraints off and target a D that has allowed the 4th most air yards (1391) and only got to the QB 8 times (T3rd worst). Worth noting though is that the Falcons are 5-0 against the spread this year, only the 19th team to start a season this way since 1990- so this may not be the blowout some are expecting.
Tips
Falcons +5.5 @10/11
Allgeier over 12.5 rushing attempts @5/6
Jeff Wilson TD @Evens
Drake London & Brandon Aiyuk 60+ receiving yards each, Jeff Wilson & Tyler Allgeier 60+ rushing yards each @20/1 request a bet with Sky
Patriots (2-3) @ Browns (2-3)
This is a game dependent on the Patriots QB situation. Whilst rookie Bailey Zappe led the New England outfit to a shutout 29-0 victory against the Lions last week the Browns seem a more resolute defence. Far from sturdy however they’ve allowed 45 points fewer than the leaky Lions and more importantly do sit with a net positive points tally indicating they are more than used to scoring. This is predominantly due to their huge run game, as referenced last week, led by Nick Chubb who boasts a statline of 593 yards (1st), 7 TDs (1st) and 6.1 yards per carry (3rd). Put simply he is the unstoppable running back this year, and even if you dent his progress you are left to deal with running mate Kareem Hunt who has ticked up 247 yards on less than a 50% snap percentage. It’s no surprise both these backs have faced the highest percentages of 8 men in the box defensive looks on 31.58% (Hunt) and 30.61% (Chubb) of their rush attempts. The Pats aren’t likely to counter this either as they sit 21st in the league for rushing yards allowed (128.8 per game) which is a stat the Browns have surpassed easily in every game going for 217, 184, 171, 177 and 213 ground yards in their 5 games thus far. The Pats are top 10 in their passing D however new boy Amari Cooper is proving tough to stop with 304 yards and 3 TDs in what is such a run heavy scheme. All indications are the Browns will run the Pats into the ground and they likely won't be able to stop this, so we come back to Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe. They’ll likely have to run a perfect offensive game and use plenty of time of possession to slow the Browns steam train running game down. Luckily they have a back in Rhamondre Stevenson who sits 11th for yards at 372 and can expose a rush D ranked 6th worst (691 yards) and 3rd worst for yards per carry allowed (5.3). Expect a game of run after run after run done by two teams who are both strong on the ground, but hapless at defending it.
Tips
Browns Money Line @8/11
Chubb 100+ rush yards and a TD @15/8
Kareem Hunt over 16.5 receiving yards @5/6
Cooper & Njoku 45+ receiving yards, Chubb 100+ rushing, Hunt 40+ rushing, Stevenson 70+ rushing yards and a rushing TD. 39/1 Bet Builder with Bet Victor
Jets (3-2) @ Packers (3-2)
An unexpected position for both teams really- the Jets with a winning record and the Packers coming off a loss to the other New York franchise in their London game last week. Even more surprising is that the Jets come in as the higher powered offence outscoring the Packers 23.2 points per game compared to 19.4. The loss of Davante Adams and the failure for the rookie WRs Watson and Doubs to gel instantly is a key reason, however the emergence of Allen Lazard in week 4 vs the Pats (6/8 for 116 yards) suggests Rodgers has found a new favourite weapon, yet he finds himself against the 9th rated pass defence (by way of passing yards allowed) in the Jets at only 206 yards a game. The Jets have benefited hugely in the past two weeks though facing rookies Kenny Pickett and Skylar Thompson, leaving them at 231 air yards allowed in their other 3 matchups. This is still impressive and testament to Robert Salah and his defence with their turnover production being key (7 INTs tied 4th) however they face a QB who historically doesn't offer up picks (457 TDs to 96 INTs, best rate of all time). Whilst Rodgers is finding his favourite receiver Wilson has a plethora of guys to target and is sharing the ball out a lot. 6 players have over 20 targets with all of those having at least 16 receptions. Barring Michael Carter the other 5 (Davis, G. Wilson, Hall, Moore & Conklin) sit between 299 yards (Davis) and 192 (Conklin) which is a hugely impressive spread of yardage accounting for 1189 of the Jets 1382 passing yards. As such its hard to work out who will put on a show, but running back Breece Hall has 29 targets and 17 catches so his over for receptions of 2.5 looks like value.
Tips
Jets +7.5 @10/11
Each team to score 20+ points @7/4
Allen Lazard & Corey Davis both to score a TD @9/1
Wilson 200+ & Rodgers 240+ passing yards, Lazard & G. Wilson 45+ receiving yards, Hall & Jones 20+ receiving yards & Jones 60+ rushing yards. 26/1 with Bet Victor.
Jaguars (2-3) @ Colts (2-1-2)
The first divisional matchup to preview and it isnt one that holds out much hope to be a great game. The Colts have been arguably one of the worst teams to watch however the Jags have been a bit of a surprise package and feel like they should at least have a winning record. The Colts come off a long rest having played on Thursday Night the week prior in a season lowlight 12-9 victory over the Broncos, before the Jags put on an equally poor display managing to lose 13-6 to the Texans. Both of our featured teams combined for 18 points, all being via the boot. Expect another low scoring affair, as do the bookies with the over/under line being set at 41.5 but i think its worth backing. The Colts have failed to even reach 14 points per game and the Jags have only been allowing 16 per game. Despite the bookmakers favouring the Colts I think this game is the Jags to lose, however they did manage to throw away victory vs the Texans out-yarding them 422-248, making 7 more first downs but Trevor Lawrence’s 2 interceptions proved costly. If the Jags stay even or win the turnover battle I foresee an easy victory and as long as it isn't too easy I think the under comes in at a canter. The opposing argument would be that Matt Ryan hasn't had healthy weapons thus far with Pittman and Taylor missing time but as mentioned the Jags are a surprisingly good defence. They rank 5th for points allowed. 6th for rush yards allowed and sit tied 4th with 7 interceptions so unless Taylor can suddenly replicate his 2021 form (1811 rush yards & 360 receiving yards for 20 total TDs) I don't foresee the Jags yielding many points. Couple this with the fact Matt Ryan leads the league for interceptions (7) the Jags seem overpriced as underdogs. With Christian Kirk averaging just under 8 targets a game he’s stepped into his WR1 role and could be set for a big game.
Tips
Jags Money Line at 11/10
Jags +0.5 and under 42.5 points @11/4
James Robinson TD @5/4
Matt Ryan 2+ interceptions, Kirk over 4.5 receptions, Zay Jones 35+ receiving yards & Trevor Lawrence 30+ passing attempts. 14/1 with Bet Victor.
Vikings (4-1) @ Dolphins (3-2)
The Dolphins find themselves on a 2 game slide however they’ve been seriously hampered at Quarterback. Face of the franchise Tua went out against the Bengals, having suffered a severe concussion the week prior, and then backup Teddy Bridgewater left the game early against the Jets leaving 7th round rookie QB Skylar Thompson to take the reins. He looks set to do so again against a Vikings side that's racked up 3 wins on the spin and it doesn't look set to be an easy task for the 8th quarterback in the 2022 class. The winning streak that the Vikings are on have all been one score victories though and if Miami keep it close for long enough there could be a route to the win. To do so they’ll have to return their defence to its 2020 levels as they’ve shipped 131 points so far and 1384 passing yards (both 5th most) whilst only making one interception. That simply isnt good enough and is set to be exposed by Kirk Cousins who has put up 1327 yards with 547 going to league leading Justin Jefferson who commands 41.32% of the teams total air yards. His 40 catches on 55 targets sits him 7th for catch percentage on players targeted over 30 times. One of the players ahead of him is the opposing speedster and WR1 Tyreek Hill who has clocked up 524 yards on his 38 catches. There has been a dip in production with the loss of Tua however he went 7/7 against the Jets but at only 6.71 yards per catch, relative to his season average prior to that game of 15.4. Containing these explosive plays will be key for the Vikings who have allowed 7.8 yards per attempt (4th worst) but the Phins have the same problem allowing 7.9 (tied 3rd worst). If Tua were healthy this would definitely be a gun slinging affair and end up very high scoring however I fear Thompson won’t be able to keep up, and also worry that Cousins will play down to the level of opposition as he often does. As such expect big contributions from Dalvin Cook (10th most rushing yards 373) in an attempt to run the clock and run the ball down Miami’s throats.
Tips
Minnesota -2.5 @4/5
Justin Jefferson 2 TDs @6/1
Cousins over 34.5 passing attempts @Evens
Jefferson, Hill & Waddle 50+ receiving yards. Cook & Mostert 75+ rushing yards @12/1 request a bet with Sky.
Bengals (2-3) @ Saints (2-3)
The Bengals come to New Orleans fresh off a road loss to a last minute Justin Tucker field goal in a cagey close game. The Saints meanwhile play host to a 3rd consecutive home game in their dome after a thrilling 39-32 victory over Seattle. That win saw wildcard player Taysom Hill score 3 rushing touchdowns whilst also lining up as QB, WR, TE, RB and even full back and that could again be the case as the Saints game plan without their starting QB Jameis Winston. The use of Hill supplements the methodical approach of former Bengal Andy Dalton who has accumulated 423 yards at a rate of almost 70% in his 2 starts. Whilst he is efficient he is far from exciting and as such the rookie speedster Chris Olave has seen a dip in his production and also targets. Weeks 2 and 3 saw the Ohio State first year get 13 targets in each game amassing 227 yards. Since then he's seen 13 targets across 2 games for only 121 yards- effectively halving his productivity. He remains questionable vs the Bengals, as does veteran Jarvis Landry whilst WR1 Mike Thomas has already been ruled out. Consequently expect the depth chart to be tested with Marquez Callaway (62 yards on 10 targets so far) and Trequan Smith (133 yards on 11 targets) to see bigger roles. Undoubtedly though the workload will go to running back Alvin Kamara who seems set for a big game, albeit against a strong run defence in the Bengals (7th fewest yards and 10th lowest yards per carry allowed). Meanwhile the Saints have a 11th best ranked pass defence by way of yards allowed but the 10th worst run D so Joe Mixon looks set for a breakout game to add to his impressive 302 ground yards. Tee Higgins remains questionable having only played 16% of snaps at Baltimore and as such look to Tyler Boyd to command targets while reigning offensive rookie of the year Jamarr Chase sees double coverage.
Tips
Bengals Money Line @4/6
Marquez Callaway over 28.5 yards @5/6
Alvin Kamara over 3.5 receptions @8/13
Olave, Chase & Smith over 50+ receiving yards with Kamara & Mixon 75+ rushing yards. 40/1 Sky Request a Bet
Ravens (3-2) @ Giants (4-1)
Two winning teams face off here in what looks set to be an important game however its a game with a clear favourite according to the bookies. The Ravens are heavily fancied and their huge 27.6 points per game (4th highest) is a key reason why. Lamar Jackson is in MVP form and stopping him will be incredibly tough, having said that the Giants stopped reigning back to back MVP Aaron Rodgers in London last weekend. This London trip is part of the reason why the bookies and myself are fancying the Ravens. It was incredibly hard fought and saw QB Daniel Jones battle through injury, which he still carries into this game, whereas the Ravens come in healthy off an important divisional win vs the Bengals. Onto Lamar who is the reason the Ravens will likely win- he doesn't actually have the most impressive passing yardage, 1067 yards so just shy of 214 yards per game, but he has thrown for 12 touchdowns (3rd most in the league) and he has rushed for a huge 374 yards- good enough to rank him 10th in rushing among the whole league. Add these 75 yards per game onto his passing stats and he's accounting for 290 scrimmage yards and almost 3 touchdowns per game. His main weapon of Mark Andrews has put up 349 yards, most of all tight ends whilst also picking up 4 touchdowns. Their passing defence is susceptible to abuse allowing a league high 1451 yards however they have faced Burrows, Allen and Tua and come up against a bare bones WR crew. Jones sits at only 848 passing yards, the least among 5 game starters and so the Ravens secondary isn't likely to be exposed. Instead they’ll focus their attention on Saquon Barkley who has 533 ground yards (2nd in the league) and 143 through the air. The Ravens task is simple, bottle up Saquon and you bottle up the Giants. The Giants task is less simple as they try to contain Lamar whilst holding the 8th worst rushing defence in the league allowing over 130 yards per game.
Tips
Ravens -5.5 @10/11
Lamar Jackson TD @6/5
Barkley and Andrews both to score a TD @3/1
Barkley & Jackson 75+ rushing yards, Jones 1+ interception & Andrews 6+ receptions. 18/1 Bet Victor.
Buccaneers (3-2) @ Steelers (1-4)
The struggling Steelers take on Tampa in what looks set to be another miserable day for the Pittsburgh franchise. The Buccs certainly haven't clicked yet but they should have enough to finish off the Steelers who are in their 2nd start with first round rookie Kenny Pickett. So far he’s tossed up 4 interceptions but ironically he’s 8th most efficient passer with a completion rate of 67.8%. Expect many of his passes to go in the direction of Diontae Johnson who averages 10 targets per game but has struggled with drops this year. Otherwise the main threat will be Pickett’s legs or those of Najee Harris. The 2nd year from Alabama has seen volume but to no real avail averaging only 3.2 yards per carry (3rd lowest in the entire league) to reach his 222 yards. He reportedly has recovered from his foot injury however with his poor O-Line and the solid Buccs D-Line (15th best for YPC) I’d expect another showing of volume without success. The Buccs meanwhile have abandoned the run this year and sit 31st with only 330 rush yards coming at a league low 3.1 yards per carry and only 2 rushing touchdowns (tied 2nd lowest). Instead they’ve utilised their veteran QB Tom Brady and sit 4th for passing yards (1409) and also 4th for attempts (207* Commanders have played a game more so technically 3rd most pass attempts). The completion rate of 68.1% is a huge worry for the Steelers who allow 7.5 yards per attempt (6th most) and sit 2nd for yards allowed 1438 and 11 touchdowns. Expect the healthy corps of Evans, Godwin and Gage to all put up big numbers and Brady to surpass his season average of 282 yards. Rookie tight end Cade Otton is worth a check in the markets as he notched up 6 catches last week, but may well see a downturn in targets due to the returning Godwin, Gage and fellow tight end Brate. The most likely target is Mike Evans who has hit 61 yards or more in all 4 four games he's played and boasts 164 catches and 30 touchdowns since Brady has linked up in Tampa with him.
Tips
Buccs -9/5 @10/11
Buccs over 33.5 points @9/4
Fournette under 14.5 rush attempts @Evens
Buccs to win all 4 quarters @11/1
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