The opening round of the NFL saw some shock results and introduced us to the new names that could well turn out to be stars.
Plenty of people will be hammering the Los Angeles Rams’ Puka Nacua to go for massive yardage after his incredible debut that saw him go 10/15 for 119 yards, but that’s not where the smart money is going.
Here’s a breakdown of the standouts you should be targeting for bets or fantasy football purposes during round two of the NFL.
Puka Nacua - Fade
As referenced, the rookie out of BYU had an electric debut against Seattle as he took on the Cooper Kupp role and notched up over 100 yards. Nacua became the first rookie Wide Receiver to debut with over 100 yards since Jamarr Chase did in 2021. Even more impressive is the stat that he became just the fourth ever player in the history of the NFL to record 100 yards and 10 receptions on debut.
Fans will be tempted to support Nacua again this week but with the bookmakers having readjusted lines there is no value to be had with the BYU product at all. The Rams come up against the 49ers who were impressive last week but had a dominant defence all throughout 2022, limiting teams to the fewest yards per game (300.6) across the entire season. Moreover, Stafford only threw for 187 yards last time against the 49ers.
Nacua could well get a deep shot and go above his target of 44.5 yards, but his reception line of 4.5 looks far too high. Instead Tyler Higbee could be the man to target with the 49ers allowing 28 receptions to Tight Ends in their last five games of the 2022 season. Higbee recorded 49 yards on three targets and three catches last week, whilst also putting up 10/14 for 73 against the 49ers in this fixture last season. Higbee over 40.5 receiving yards looks like a lock.
Stefon Diggs - Fire
Whilst Nacua was a receiver who went off and should be ignored this week, Stef Diggs is a man who had similarly incredible stats and should be backed to do it again. Diggs went 10/13 for 102 yards with a TD against a very strong Jets secondary and this week he matches up against a poor Raiders side who ranked as the fourth worst pass defence in 2022. The Raiders conceded an average of 242.9 passing yards a game, with the Bills ranked seventh for most passing yards per game (258.1).
Whilst the Bills lost in week one and the Raiders actually won, there are stats that show the Bills bounce back big after losses. Since 2020 they are 9-3 coming off losses (2nd best percentage in NFL) and win by an average of 10.9 points per game, the highest average. Back at home expect the Bills to put up a score with Diggs at the heart of it. At home in 2022 Diggs caught 57/79, showing an average of almost 10 targets per game and hauling in over seven of those. Over 6.5 receptions fits perfectly with the stats and given the Raiders poor secondary then it makes a very interesting bet, especially at 11/10.
Josh Kelley - Fade
Joshua Kelley is an interesting one because whilst he had a brilliant performance last week and is expected for more snaps this week, given Austin Ekeler’s potential injury, he’s actually someone that feels like a trap this week.
Kelley recorded 91 yards rushing on 16 carries including a touchdown against the Dolphins in the Chargers’ narrow loss. That far eclipsed his 2022 best numbers and in fact accounted for over a third of his rush yards in the 2022 season as a whole (287 yards). With Ekeler’s ankle injury he could be someone who takes even more snaps however facing the Titans defence, he’s someone to fade.
Over the course of 2022 the Titans conceded the fewest rush yards of any side, just 76.9 yards per game, one of just three sides to allow less than 100 yards per game. The Titans proved once again last week that they’re still stout defensively against the run as they allowed just 69 yards to New Orleans, and with Kelley’s line set at 53.5, a figure he’s only surpassed once in his career, take the under.
Amon-Ra St Brown - Fire
Amon-Ra has been emerging as one of the league’s best Wide Receivers and he showed that once again last week against the Chiefs to help guide the Lions to opening night victory. ARSB recorded six catches for 71 yards and one TD after averaging 6.6 catches for 72.7 yards per game in 2022. By those standards you could say week one was relatively quiet for him but week two certainly won’t be.
Facing a Seattle side that have allowed rookie Nacua to go for over 100 yards and 10 catches, ARSB will be licking his lips. The Seahawks allowed 334 passing yards last week, second most in round one, whilst also allowing 361.7 total yards per game in 2022. The Lions were a top 10 passing offence and with Goff still firing and a run game that will open the field up more for ARSB, then he’s someone to take the over 75.5 yards or 6.5 receptions on.
Points/Win Acca
Four teams that look very likely to win this week are the 49ers, Bills, Chiefs and Giants. Three of those sides lost last week and will be keen to bounce back, the Bills as referenced have an impressive bounce-back rate, the Chiefs have Mahomes at QB who is 13-3 in his career after a loss, whilst the Giants can’t be any worse than last week against Dallas. They also play an Arizona side who showed fight but are talent wise the worst side in the NFL. Their head coach Brian Daboll was also part of the Bills organisation as offensive coordinator so has that mentality of bouncing back following a loss. As for the 49ers, they’ve beaten the Rams eight times in a row and perhaps performed the best of any side in week one so look set to do the business again.
The win acca on the money line pays just over 5/2 but a way to get more value would be backing teams to score a certain number of points.
Chiefs Over 25 Points
Giants Over 19.5 Points
49ers Over 25.5 Points
Bills Over 29.5 Points
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