By Sam Cook
New York Jets (7-5) @ Buffalo Bills (9-3)
The Jets head into Buffalo with a win over the Bills earlier in the season and on this occasion the Bills have even more injuries. However the Jets have lost two and only won once since that shock victory whilst the Bills have won three on the spin following an overtime loss to the Vikings.
Mike White now quarterbacks the Jets and he’s formed a great relationship with rookie WR Garrett Wilson who has clocked up 13/23 for 257 yards in his last two games and he’ll be the danger against a Bills defence that has had Von Miller ruled out for the season.
Wilson gets volume and yardage but his receptions line of 5.5 could be too high so over 64.5 yards would be my pick instead. The Bills would typically be a passing threat with Josh Allen targeting Diggs and Davis however rookie Sauce Gardner locked down Diggs in the previous match up whilst Allen has been out of sorts averaging just 224.3 YPG. The man who’s benefiting is RB Devin Singletary averaging almost 70 YPG and recording 2 TDs in his last three. The Jets are allowing the 14th most rush yards over the last three at an average of 118 YPG so I like Singletary to be very involved and I think he should smash both his attempts (10.5) and yards (41.5), both bets I’d advise however his attempts is priced at evens and with Singletary averaging 15 carries per game in his last three I think this is massive value.
Tips
Garrett Wilson over 64.5 receiving yards @5/6
Devin Singletary over 10.5 rushing attempts @Evens
Devin Singletary, Josh Allen & Michael Carter all 50+ rushing yards @33/1 Sky Request a Bet
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Cleveland Browns (5-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)
The Browns got to see their newly acquired star QB Deshaun Watson in action last week and whilst they won easily he didn’t impress at all recording just 131 yards, zero TDs and one INT. He now faces a Bengals pass defence that limited the best QB in the game, Patrick Mahomes, to just 223 yards and one passing TD. Despite that impressive feat the Bengals have actually allowed the seventh most pass yards in their last three, averaging 260 YPG to opposition QBs so there could be potential for a high scoring affair.
The over/under is set at 46.5 which has been surpassed in four of the last six head-to-heads and with the Bengals on a four game win streak in which they’ve averaged 31.5 PPG I think this will land.
Joe Burrow has the second most passing yards in his last three, averaging 303.7 YPG and seven TDs. As a result the WR trio of Chase, Higgins and Boyd have been putting up numbers. Higgins has been the favourite though averaging 99 YPG and with Chase now fully fit he’ll have less coverage but potentially still the same number of targets (nine per game and over six catches in those last three). Over 67.5 receiving yards seems a really nice line, as does over 40.5 for Tyler Boyd considering he’s surpassed that total in five of his last seven games. For the Browns they’ll rely on Nick Chubb who took 17 carries last week to make up for Watson’s poor performance. I think Chubb anytime TD at 5/6 is the bet, whilst in the passing game RB Kareem Hunt got more of a look so any line of 1.5 receptions should be backed.
Tips
Tee Higgins over 67.5 receiving yards @5/6
Chubb anytime TD @5/6
Each team to score 1 TD & 1 Field Goal in each half @18/1
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Houston Texans (1-1-10) @ Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
The team with the worst record in football travels to face the side with the joint third best record and therefore it’s no surprise to see a huge 17.5 handicap and the Cowboys being 1/25 with some bookies on the outright market. Instead we need to find value elsewhere. Tony Pollard is that answer I think and he’s been averaging 77 YPG rushing in his last three whilst also taking plenty of receptions.
Pollard has a rush line of 67.5, something he’s cleared in four of his last five and I expect him to clear once again despite his lesser role due to Zeke Elliot returning. In terms of receiving he has two or more catches in his last four including a six catch performance against the Vikings where he went for 109 yards and scored two TDs. A rush and receiving yards combined line of 87.5 looks solid at 5/6. Third year WR Ceedee Lamb is also averaging an impressive statline lately with 74 YPG in his last three and over five catches a game in that period. Over 70.5 yards could be a smart bet but I think the best bet here is taking the Cowboys to score points, they’ve averaged over 40 in their last three and the Texans have allowed the eighth most at 26.7 PPG. The Cowboys over 31.5 points is priced at evens which I think is great value, the Cowboys having surpassed that in three of their last five.
Tips
Tony Pollard over 67.5 rush yards @5/6
Cowboys over 31.5 points @Evens
Tony Pollard to score 2+ TDs @4/1
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Minnesota Vikings (10-2) @ Detroit Lions (5-7)
This is a strange betting game with the Vikings outsiders and receiving a 1.5 point head start but an illness in the Vikings team has caused many players to be in doubt for the game and unable to practice, however even still this seems like a game where Minnesota can get through. Only one game away from securing the top seed and the all important bye week in the playoffs the Vikings still have loads to play for even if their playoff slot is almost secured, therefore I don’t think they’ll rest players and allow for the camp to become fully healthy.
The main problem is that two of their five starting offensive line are likely out so Kirk Cousins could find himself sacked a lot. Even still they can rely on the running game instead of check down passes to Dalvin Cook who I think will smash his 2.5 receptions that is generously priced at evens. The Lions will once again lean on star receiver Amon-Ra St Brown who is averaging 104 yards a game over his last three and more incredibly 9/10 catches which is unheard of. As such his line for receptions is over 6.5 and is only 4/6 which isn’t backable, instead take over 85.5 yards as the Vikings secondary won’t have safety Harrison Smith.
The Vikes will combat this with their freakish young talented WR Justin Jefferson. When these sides played in week four he was limited to 18 yards and just three catches so he’ll have a point to prove and recent performances such as his 193 yards 10 catch game against the Bills will motivate him. Over 94.5 yards looks high but should easily land. This should also be a high scoring game, the bookies suggest so with a line of 51.5 which has landed in four of the Lions last five, and two of the Vikes last four. The Lions actually have the second highest total point in their last three at 32 PPG and the Vikings third most allowed at 29.3. Expect fireworks.
Tips
Dalvin Cook over 2.5 receptions @evens
Each team to score 20+ points @5/6
St Brown & Jefferson both 100+ receiving yards, Cook 60+ rushing yards and J. Williams anytime TD @11/1 Bet Victor Bet Builder
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Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) @ New York Giants (7-1-4)
The Giants had a huge opportunity to put pressure on the Eagles and Cowboys, both ahead of them in the NFC East, if they’d beaten Washington last week. However they played out a draw after overtime and now will probably need to win four of their last five to guarantee playoff football. Facing them though is the side with the best record in football who put on a clinic last week against the Titans, dominating them 35–10. Jalen Hurts passed for 380 yards and three TDs whilst rushing for another.
Star WR AJ Brown put up 119 yards and two TDs with second year Devonta Smith also going off with 102 yards and a TD. The injury to Dallas Goedert has simply meant more volume for the two young WRs and less rushing. However they may change tact this week as they face a Giants side who rank fifth for most rushing yards allowed in their last three at an average of 164.6 rushing yards and six rushing TDs. The bookies have been generous and price boosted Sanders, Hurts and Giants star RB Saquon Barkley all to record 50+ rushing yards at 3/1. This is a bet for me but Sanders particularly I expect to be given a big role to make up for last week. Because of his lack of yards last week the bookies have dropped his over/under to 65.5 yards which I think is incredible value and well worth backing.
This will come at the expense of Smith in my opinion and I think Brown will still see plenty and over 5.5 receptions at 6/5 is a gift. For the Giants it’s all about Saquon but his line is too high for me, instead I’ll take new WR star and former Bill, Isaiah Hodgins, to replicate his performance of last week and score another TD. Priced at 9/2 I think there could be value to be had.
Tips
Sanders, Hurts, Barkley all 50+ rushing yards @3/1 Sky price boost
Hodgins anytime TD @9/2
Eagles to win & 45+ points @5/4
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