By Sam Cook
Cleveland Browns (2-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
This AFC North matchup sees two of the highest scoring offences face off. The Ravens average 26.3 PPG ranking 5th most whereas the Browns sit 7th for average points per game with 24.6. Atop this is the fact that both sides have a lacklustre defence, in particular the Browns who have conceded a joint league high 27.16 PPG with the Ravens also ranking bottom top allowing 23.5 a game. The clear suggestion here is points (over/under of 45.5) and lots of them, something that recent matchups have also seen with their 2020 week 14 meeting seeing a monstrous 89. Three of the last five matchups have seen 46 points or more and I expect this trend to continue. The only worry is the method by which these teams score and that is primarily via their run game- Browns most rush yards in the league (1032) & the Ravens 6th most (934). If this game goes to the trenches then the clock could be eaten up and scoring drives may take time. The return of wideout Rashod Bateman will see Lamar air it out significantly more than in week 6, however he has strung together 10 consecutive poor passing quarters since going 20-3 up vs the Bills in week 4. The Ravens were scoreless in the 2nd half and have only put up 39 points in their previous 2 games but more worrying is only 401 passing yards in those 2 and a half games. Lamar was on MVP pace in his first three and a return to that will see a Ravens win. That’s something I’m forecasting with TE Mark Andrews set to be key with his 6.5 receptions a game helping offset the Browns main threat- Nick Chubb the league leading rusher with 108 yards a game.
Tips
Browns +6.5
Over 45.5
Andrews & Chubb both to score a TD @11/4
Andrews 6+ receptions, Njoku 3+ receptions, Chubb 18+ rush attempts, Jackson 50+ rushing yards and Cooper 42+ receiving yards @12/1 Bet Victor Bet Builder
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) @ Carolina Panthers (1-5)
The worst team in football see the GOAT visit them in an NFC south clash in which the Panthers are expected to extend their losing run. They’ve only amassed 41 points across their last 3 games all of which they lost and the firing of HC Matt Rhule doesn’t look to have had an immediate impact- in fact the side just traded away WR Robbie Anderson for openly arguing and challenging coaches on the sideline in their loss to the Rams. They’re a team in disarray and in normal circumstances you’d expect the Buccs to sweep them away and make a mockery of the 11.5 handicap line. However this isn’t Brady’s Buccs that we’ve come to know- they’re 1-3 in their last 4 games including a loss to Kenny Pickett’s 1-4 Steelers last time out. Their average of just over 20 points a game is just that- incredibly average and a lot can be blamed on their inability to run the ball. They rank dead last for yards (405), for yards per carry (3.1) and tied last for rushing TDs with just 2. They’re also one of only 3 teams yet to record a rush over 20 yards. As such expect plenty of passing from Brady and the recently returned Chris Godwin has averaged 9.3 targets a game in these last 3 games, he’s a clear favourite target and someone to target on the overs for receptions. For the Panthers there’s little to shout about on offence as displayed by their lowly point output. CMC will be used until his hamstrings inevitably break down for the 3rd season in a row but the Buccs have a stout defence (103 points conceded in 6 but 62 in 5 when you remove the high powered chiefs 41 outlying stat) and so he’s someone I’d back on the overs for receptions and rush attempts, not necessarily for yards.**** He’s now a 49er so forget that and get involved with Hubbard for receptions but Foreman for rushing attempts/yards. **** Passing wise there's QB uncertainty between Baker, PJ Walker and even Sam Darnold- but their wideouts are best left alone considering McCaffrey leads them in receptions and yards (33 and 277). The only other players above 200 yards are Anderson (traded to Arizona) and DJ Moore who has suffered with drops and double teams recording only 20 catches on 44 targets. By contrast he had 40 catches on 63 targets for 513 yards- an obscene drop off.
Tips
Buccs alternative handicap -3.5 @3/10
Under 40.5 points @10/11
Godwin over 5.5 receptions @4/6
Brady 3+ passing TDs, Foreman 46+ rushing yards and Mike Evans 1+ TD @7/1 Bet Builder with Bet Victor
Atlanta Falcons (3-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)
An interesting clash of two sides with contrasting pre-season expectations yet they both find themselves sitting with 3 wins and losses a piece. Both sides have actually won 3 of their last 4 having started 0-2. Both teams have no issue scoring though so expect points- the Falcons sitting 6th for points per game with 24.33 whilst the Bengals put up 23 per match. Burrows’ side are making up for their slow start having scored 27 in 3 of their last 4 so they’re clearly a side coming into form and will target a Falcons defence that’s allowing 12th worst 22.66 points per game. Concerning for Atlanta is their concession of 296 yards to Jimmy G last week and 351 a week prior to Brady. Burrows looks sure to improve on his 6th most pass yards per game of 269.33 against a pass D allowing the most yards of any team all season at 281 yards.A 69% completion rate and 10 touchdowns allowed suggests the Bengals will replicate their pass heavy scheme that saw them make the Superbowl last season. Key to this is the improving fitness of their WR trio- Chase, Higgins and Boyd have all cleared 300 yards with offensive rookie of the year Chase leading the pack at 475 (9th in the league)- he’s seen an incredible 10.3 targets a game but only hauled in 6.5 of those. He’s the clear man to target for Burrows and also for bets with his 81.5 & 6.5 yards and receptions overs respectively being of interest. Outside of Chase it’s hard to predict who will see targets as Higgins, Boyd, Hurst and Mixon have all seen between 29 and 38 targets. Instead it’s best to look for yardage and with Tyler Boyd averaging 14.3 yards per catch and 3.5 catches per game his over/under of 41.5 looks incredible value. For the Falcons it's worth taking Tyler Allgeier, the rookie has found himself as the lead back with Patterson out for the season and his over of 46.5 is one to back. Since assuming the lead role he has surpassed this mark twice and ran for 45 yards on the other occasion. Coming up against a run D allowing 121 yards per game at a bottom 10 ranked 4.8 yards per carry suggests he may well beat that line. A final point worth noting is that the Falcons are 6-0 against the handicap this season and the 6.5 spread in this game is a little too big for me given they’re clearly a side who hang around late in games.
Tips
Bengals -4.5 and over 46.5 points @2/1
Each team to score 20+ points @5/4
Allgeier over 46.5 rushing yards @5/6
Burrow 275+ pass yards & 2+ pass TDs, Boyd 40+ receiving & Allgeier 40+ rushing & Chase over 5.5 receptions @5/1 Bet Builder with Bet Victor
Detroit Lions (1-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-2)
The Lions come off their bye hopefully healthier with Swift and St Brown set to return and they’ll need the dynamic pair to help them get their offence (league leading after 4 games at 35 PPG) back on track after putting up zero points in week 5 versus the Pats. Despite their impressive scoring abilities in the first four weeks they have gone on to allow over 34 points a game and they’ll face up against a Dallas defence that's one of the toughest in the league. Allowing just over 16 PPG (3rd best) they have a fearsome front led by defensive rookie of the year Micah Parsons (6 sacks this year) and also Trevon Diggs in the secondary who has 2 picks and has successfully defended 9 passes (tied 1st). The Lions will have to be disciplined and avoid turnovers but Goff has a lowly 59.7% pass completion rate (7th lowest) and isn’t favoured to perform well against the Cowboys with over 0.5 interceptions peaking my interest at 4/5. The trio of Reynolds, St Brown and Hockenson have 34, 39 and 34 receptions but with St Brown having played a whole game less it’s clear he’s the main man and so will have the challenge of playing against Diggs. As such Reynolds is of interest with 4.6 catches per game so any line sitting at 2.5 or 3.5 should be taken advantage of. For the Cowboys the run game needs work but the return of Dak suggests a more explosive passing attack. Ceedee Lamb has a huge 10 targets per game but is riddled with drops so his line set at 6.5 it makes sense to sway towards one of Brown or Gallup on a more realistic 2.5 receptions against a sloppy pass D.
Tips
Cowboys -6.5 @10/11
Jamaal Williams TD @2/1
Dak 2 passing TDs and Dallas to win @evens
Each team to score 1+ TD & 1+ Field Goal in each half @14/1
New York Giants (5-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4)
This year's surprise team the New York Giants look set to extend their impressive run on the road in Florida and surprisingly the bookmakers don’t seem to have caught on to the fact they grind out wins and punish mistakes. At 11/8 I make them incredible value against a Jags side that has been very up and down. They’ve been a lot more down of late with 3 consecutive losses and I really struggle to make a case for them at such short odds on price. Their run game has been very solid with Etienne and Robinson sharing duties tallying 301 and 340 yards respectively. Etienne has been far more explosive with his efforts (5.6 YPC) but has failed to find the endzone, something Robinson has done 3 times. They do face a very poor Giants run defence allowing the 3rd worst yards of 869 (144 per game) and a league worst 5.6 yards per carry. The fact the Jags put up 243 yards on the ground alone last week will be of huge concern for the G Men. Whilst they might not be able to counter with staunch defence they have an impressive running game of their own led by Saquon who ticks over at 102.6 rush yards per game this year. They rely upon him so much due to their lacklustre WR room with Barkley actually 2nd for receiving yards (155) behind Richie James on 189. In a dream world for the Giants the Jags would be terrible at defending the run and brilliant at defending the pass however nothing is ever ideal in the NFL. Instead the Jags rank 5th best for rushing yards allowed and 3rd for yards per carry at only 536 and 3.6 a piece. Comparatively their passing defence is lousy allowing the 8th most yards (1467) however they have an impressive 7 interceptions which is a huge worry considering Daniel Jones is prone to some questionable decisions. The run game offensive/defensive disparity between the sides sets up a brilliant game but I think the form team edge this out.
Tips
Giants @11/8
Saquon 100 rush yards and a TD @7/2
Etienne over 51.5 @5/6 & Robinson over 46.5 @5/6 rushing yards each
James Robinson to score the first TD of the game and Saquon to score a TD any time @20/1
Indianapolis Colts (3-1-2) @ Tennessee Titans (3-2)
A divisional matchup for the top of the AFC south with two teams that are historically built on the run game but struggling to get the best out of their lead backs thus far. Derrick Henry and Jonathon Taylor have both been 2000 yard rushers but have stumbled to stats of 81.6 and 82 yards per game respectively. Whilst impressive this isnt enough to sustain either offence and that’s where the problems have arisen for both sides. Neither have excellent QBs, although we did see Matt Ryan’s best performance to date as a Colt last week (389 yards and 3 TDs), and without their typically dominant run game this is a tough game to predict. The run game drop off is so steep that when compared to last season (Colts 2nd most rush yards & Titans 5th most in 2021) they’re almost a direct contrast with the Colts 5th worst (502 yards) and Titans 6th with 514 (albeit having played a game less). I’d expect the Titans to stick with the run game so hitting Henry on the overs for attempts and yards is advised, however with the Colts new found success last week and the fact the Titans have allowed 6th fewest rush yards per game (103) I’d favour them to air it out. Pittman is proving a popular target as expected with over 10 targets a game and over 7 catches for 417 yards (14th most). However value can be found with rookie Alex Pierce averaging 3.6 catches but making 15.1 yards per catch to amass 571 yards. Even if the rookie only snags 2 catches he can make explosive plays and so over of 43.5 yards looks tempting. It’s a coin toss game for me but I’ll just favour the home side.
Tips
Titans @8/11
Matt Ryan over 34.5 pass attempts @evens
Derrick Henry over 89.5 rush yards @5/6
Alec Pierce 40+ yards, Ryan 30+ pass attempts, Pittman 6+ receptions, Henry 75+ rush yards & Tannehill 175+ pass yards @9/2 Bet Builder with Bet Victor
Green Bay Packers (3-3) @ Washington Commanders (2-4)
The struggling Packers are given a gift here with a dismal Washington side for them to put away and finally kickstart their season. The Packers are a long way behind in their division with the Vikings currently 5-1 but this feels like the stepping stone they need as they face a toothless Commanders who have 47 in their last 4 games combined. That average of less than 12 points a game is really poor and has in part been due to the injury to rookie receiver Jahan Dotson who had been putting up good TD numbers (4 in first 3). He looks set to return and will take part in what could be a pass heavy game with both sides conceding almost 250 pass yards a game (1476 Packers & 1489 Commanders). QB Carson Wentz will be out however backup Taylor Heinecke came in last year and put together some impressive performances so many Commanders fans will be refreshed to see him return after some poor performances by their starting QB. He put up 268 yards in a valiant loss to the Packers last season, and that was a far better defence than this years, with Terry McClaurin putting up 122 yards and a TD on 7 catches. That’s something he’d love to replicate in order to kickstart his own season as he only has 22 catches this year but has converted them into 367 yards. He averages almost double the yards per catch (16.7 McClaurin to 8.4 for Samuel) of the most targeted Commander, Curtis Samuel, seeing over 8 looks a game and hauling in over 5 of them. Their RB room is headed up by rookie Brian Robinson who has returned from a gunshot injury but don’t discount Heinecke’s legs as he went for 95 on 10 carries in this matchup last year, leading his team. The Packers offence is in an identity crisis but the improving fitness of TE Robert Tonyan has been of significance as he saw 10 catches on 12 targets last week and is one of few remaining veterans for Rodgers to target. His over of 32.5 is a statline that he almost trebled last week with 90 yards and so I’d be all over this lower line in a game I expect the Packers to win by a TD or more.
Tips
Packers Money Line @10/21
McClaurin over 4.5 receptions @4.5
Heinecke over 13.5 rushing yards @5/6 (Take this on a far larger over/under if possible- I’d expect 25+)
Rodgers 250+ passing yards, Lazard 50+ receiving yards & Jones 50+ rushing yards @9/2 Sky RAB
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