NFL Sunday: Match Previews

By Sam Cook

Steelers (1-3) @ Bills (3-1)

This sees a matchup between teams with polarising QB situations. The Bills have MVP favourite Josh Allen running a high powered passing offence, Allen has 1227 passing yards through 4 games, 2nd only to Justin Herbert. By contrast the Steelers saw week 4 as the time to introduce first round QB selection Kenny Pickett who on his first NFL pass threw an interception. Pickett certainly did give the Steelers impetus but at a high price of 3 total interceptions and that will be a costly trait against a Buffalo defence that is ranked 1st in fewest passing yards conceded (603), most interceptions (7) and 2nd in passing touchdowns given up (3). Even scarier for the Steelers would be that they can't rely on 2021 first rounder Najee Harris going up against a rush D that conceded the 3rd fewest yards and boasts the 4th best yards per carry conceded rate of only 3.5. Harris has the 8th worst yards per carry rate in the league and has only amassed 202 yards thus far on the ground. The Bills ability to nullify Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson suggests a thankless task ahead for the Steelers backs. Pittsburgh are the only team in NFL history to have not been 14 point underdogs since the 1970 merger, yet this week find themselves heading into Buffalo 14.5 point underdogs. They'll play a banged up Bills receiver room but with Stefon Diggs leading the receiving touchdown race (4 alongside Jahan Dotson) and averaging 101.5 yards per game as well as 10 targets they’ll struggle to cover this huge spread. The over under line sits at 46.5 which the Bills could clear on their own but with the Steelers looking meek and the aforementioned Bills WR injuries this is a clear game to chance the under on.

Tips

• Bills -14.5 (10/11)

• Diggs over 100 yards and a TD

• Josh Allen 1 rushing TD

• Pickett 2+ INTs

Chargers (2-2) @ Browns (2-2)

This is a game between two teams that haven’t lived up to their pre season hype thus far and as such are hard to separate (Chargers -2.5 favourites). The Chargers had been seen as heir apparents to the Chiefs in the AFC West which in recent history has been dominated by Mahomes and co. The Chiefs loss of current league leading receiver Tyreek Hill and imperious rise of Justin Herbert for the Chargers saw many forecast a changing of the guard, but as yet they’ve flattered to deceive. Herbert does lead the league in passing at 312.5 yards per game but has only led his team to a disappointing 2-2 record. Similarly the Browns sit at 2-2, and despite giving a monster haul for Deshaun Watson his off field actions resulted in a 13 game suspension leaving the team at the hands of seasoned backup Jacoby Brissett. By contrast Brissett is averaging only 207.5 yards per game but the Chargers loss of Joey Bosa (1.5 sacks and a forced fumble in 3 games) suggests he’ll have a far more open pocket to play in. Beware of the secondary though which has racked up 5 interceptions and is led by second year Asante Samuel Jr and the highest paid safety in the league Derwin james. The Browns antidote will be their stacked backfield, a combination of Chubb and Hunt which on paper is the leagues best. In practice the stats support this as their combined 659 yards place the Browns 2nd in league rushing. This will put fear into the chargers who have conceded 131 and 151 rushing yards in their previous two games respectively. All indications that both Chubb and Hunt will feature prominently and hit their overs on the ground. The Chargers backfield sees Austin Ekeler coming off the back of a hatrick of touchdowns against the Texans and with star receiver Keenan Allen having missed the past 3 games and not practising on Wednesday the ball could again be forced to Ekeler (total of 328 yards). He will look to get into the endzone again versus a Browns D conceding an average of 113 rush yards per game.The Browns offer a deceiving statline of 56.9% completion to opposing QBs (2nd best in the league) yet they’ve played a weak foursome of Mariota, Trubisky, Flacco and their former face of the franchise Baker Mayfield. This suggests an inflated stat line which the Chargers could well expose given Herbert is a league leading passer completing 66.9% and on target to throw for a monstrous 5300 yards.

Tips

• Chargers -2.5 (10/11)

• Herbert over 300 passing yards

• Chubb over 84.5 rushing yards

• Ekeler over 4.5 receptions

Texans (0-1-3) @ Jaguars (2-2)

An AFC south divisional matchup between two teams that are perennial losers and on the rebuild (picked 1st and 3rd 2022 draft). The Jags have set off at 2-2 and sit atop their division on account of their 24-0 whitewash of another divisional rival in the Colts. This amounts to a measly total of only 67 points conceded thus far having played the aforementioned high powered Chargers and also current undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. Their offseason acquisitions are proving positive and their highly touted generational 2021 number 1 overall pick of Trevor Lawrence has started to piece the pro game together. He’s aided by Superbowl winning Head Coach Doug Pederson and the actualisation of a WR1 in Christian Kirk. The former Cardinal boasts 36 targets and is top ten in receiving yards clocking up 327 yards and 3 TDs. On the other side of the ball they’re one of only 8 teams who average less than 100 rushing yards per game, their name being a shock relative to the expected; Chiefs, 49ers, Bills, Rams etc. The Texans on the other hand sit 0-1-3 having tied with the Colts in week 1 but they could argue they’ve been unlucky and throughout their 3 losses, 2 were one score games including a last second field goal loss to the Bears. Led by Davis Mills they're relatively low powered and sit 6th worst for yards per attempt through the air at only 6.4. Rookie RB Dameon Pierce is their shining light on the ground though, however he hasn't been given enough opportunity with the Texans only running 84 times (ranked 29th) and Pierce accounts for 60 of those clocking up 313 yards. There's a similar story in the WR room for the Texans with Brandin Cooks being lent on and targeted at least 7 times in every outing so he seems a nice player to target in the props markets. This is likely the crowning of Lawrence who has firmly established himself this season (forgetting his fumbles in Philly last week) and all stats and opinions point to a comfortable Jags win, despite the Texans plucky attitude, with Lawrence making use of Pederson's pass heavy scheme.

Tips

• Jags -7.5 (1/1)

• Lawrence over 36.5 passing attempts

• Cooks over 5.5 receptions

• Pierce over 14.5 rushing attempts

Bears (2-2) @ Vikings (3-1)

Another divisional matchup sees the Bears visit the Vikings who are fresh off a London victory courtesy of Will Lutz doinked missed field goal. The Vikings saw themselves get fortunate in a game that they really should have dominated given the Saints injury problems. This may have been in part due to QB Kirk Cousins’ notoriously bad prime time record of 10-19, including a 2-11 record on Monday Night Football. Thankfully for the Vikings Cousins is back home and in a 6pm game where he can thrive and from time to time tears teams apart. His 1031 passing yards is a respectable tally and he has thrown for over 260 in 3 of his 4 games so far. The exception- Monday Night Football where he went for 3 interceptions against the undefeated Eagles. Despite the Bears woes this season they surprisingly offer up the 4th best passing defence in regards to yards conceded. They’ve been stingy giving up only 673 yards and this alone has helped them to a 2-2 start. They’ll have to hope that Cousins is in another interception friendly mood and that their passing defence can excel because the Bears passing offence is historically bad. Second year Justin Fields is in a tough situation but he has only completed 34 passes all season. It’s so bad in fact that they rank last for attempts (67), completions (34), completion percentage (50.8%) and yards (471). The injury to RB1 David Montgomery has thrust Khalil Herbert into the mix and he seems to be the Bears only threat having totted up 157 and 77 rushing yards in the games without DMont. Typically we see shootouts as pass heavy games but Fields inability to complete more than 11 passes in any single game and the pick friendly Cousins coming up against that staunch Bears passing D suggests a game of attrition and running. Coupled with the Bears being the worst run defence (733 yards conceded) and the Vikings not faring much better (524) this won’t be a game for the casual fan. Clock will be eaten up for fun in this run heavy game so expect the under to land in a Vikings win.

Tips

• Vikings Money Line (1/3)

• Fields under 12.5 completions

• Khalil Herbert & Dalvin Cook both to score a rushing TD

• Kirk Cousins over 0.5 INT

Lions (1-3) @ Patriots (1-3)

Two 1-3 teams come up against each other in a must win to get their season back on track. The Lions are famous for being one of a handful of teams never to make a Superbowl, on the other hand the Pats are … well they’re the Pats. For the past 20 years they’ve had the strongest dynasty the footballing world has ever seen, But times are changing for both of these teams, the Lions are in rebuild mode and making a good go at it. HC Dan Campbell came in demanding players be kneecapping and biting opposition ankles. Whilst thats not quite been a literal instruction the Lions certainly have become a must watch team, whether they’re doing the mauling or being mauled. They rank 1st in points scored at 140, and regrettably they also lead the league in points conceded letting a huge 141 points past them. This is a league high record points total of 281 in the first 4 games but the over under line of 45.5 suggests slightly less fireworks than their previous 93 point shootout vs the Seahawks. Former Lions HC Matt Patricia being the Pats offensive coordinator could well be the reason for this. The Pats are on the opposite end of the spectrum scoring only 74 points which leaves them in the bottom 10 for points scored. Rookie QB Bailey Zappe also features with 2021 first rounder Mac Jones being out injured. Zappe went 10/15 for 99 yards and kept the Pats in a game vs the back to back MVP Aaron Rodgers only to lose in overtime. This is a game that is best to watch Sunday news for given the plethora of injuries in particular for the Lions. Week 4 saw them without starting RB D’andre Swift and wide receivers Amon Ra St Brown (253 receiving yards in his first 3 games) and DJ Chark. Consequently backup RB Jamaal Williams feasted with 108 rushing yards and 2 TDs with tight end TJ Hockenson seeing 12 looks, catching 8 for a career high 179 receiving yards. Perhaps this could be another game where the ground game is King, The Lions rank 6th for rushing yards and could well increase their average of 164 yards per game against a Patriots defence that's 7th worst conceding 127.5 rush yards per game. Look out for Swifts injury status, but otherwise Jamaal Williams is someone to target heavily on the overs. The Pats run by committee and expect Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson both to hit double digit carries against a Lions D that's allowed 3rd most rushing yards in the league 662 (165.5 per game).

Tips

• Under 45.5 points(10/11)

• Zappe over 0.5 interceptions

• Jamaal Williams 2 touchdowns

• TJ Hockenson over 6.5 receptions

Seahawks (2-2) @ Saints (1-3)

Another one of the London teams makes the return trip back across the pond and the Saints are rewarded with a home game in their famous dome. They invite the Seahawks who took part in a 93 point thriller last week vs the Lions. The Seahawks are in their first season without star QB Russell Wilson but Geno Smith has stepped up and has been more than adequate. In fact he currently holds a 77.3% completion percentage which is the highest the league has seen through 4 games. This has been helped massively by the fact that the Hawks O-Line has only allowed 6 sacks, a feat that only 4 teams can better. This efficiency of the O-Line and QB coupled with the explosive nature of their premium wideouts, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf who rank 13th and 17th respectively for receiving yards. This two headed monster has hauled in 586 receiving yards thus far which is the 4th most for a duo behind the dynamic Hill/Waddle, Brown/Smith, Chase/Higgins in which both players have racked up 250 or more yards. One player who has surpassed both their individual totals is Saints rookie Chris Olave who comes in at 9th on the receiving charts with 335. The rookie is picking up the slack left by the injury plagued veterans Mike Thomas (171 yards on 16 catches) and Jarvis Landry (168 yards on 15 catches). Further injuries to star running back Alvin Kamara (missed two games and remains questionable) could see Olave targeted once again and so hitting him on the over for receptions seems sensible. Starting QB Jameis Winston also missed the London game injured so it could be down to Andy Dalton to attack the Seahawks D that's allowed a 4th worst 1096 receiving yards thus far. The Saints meanwhile rank 9th best allowing only 203.5 yards per game through the air but the ever efficient Geno Smith could test them. Certainly a game that doesn't jump out of the schedule but one that will most likely come down to only 1 score which has been the case in 5 of these teams 8 games so far.

Tips

• Seahawks +5.5 (10/11)

• Chris Olave over 4.5 receptions

• Lockett over 66.5 receiving yards

• Seahawks to win by 1-6 points

Dolphins (3-1) @ Jets (2-2)

AFC East rivals come together here but while the Jets welcome back their 3rd year quarterback Zach Wilson, the Dolphins will again miss theirs as Tua Tagovailoa still feels the effect of lacklustre doctors who it is becoming evident failed to protect him from himself and allowed him to play concussed. Whether he sees the field any time soon is a major concern for the Dolphins, and for football fans in general, as they had started 3-0 beating the Superbowl favourites and divisional rival Bills, before succumbing to a Thursday Night Football loss to the Bengals. Fan favourite Teddy Bridgewater takes centre stage for the Phins but was underwhelming vs the Bengals with a statline of 14/23 for 193 and a TD and INT a piece. This is a worry for the aforementioned duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle who had been feasting with Tua under centre. Hills leads the league with 477 receiving yards whereas Waddle ranks 6th with 381. They’ve combined for 31 and 21 receptions combined and are the focal point of McDaniels offence so expect them to hit the overs on their receiving/reception props. Even more reason to expect a firework display from the QBs is that the Jets run D is 6th best in yards per carry allowed (3.7) so the committee of Mostert and Edmonds may be neglected in favour of their WR counterparts. More surprising than the Jets run D being strong is the collapse of the Phins passing defence. They’ve allowed a league 2nd highest total of 1197 passing yards so Zach Wilson will be hoping to improve on his season start of 252 passing yards. Wilson historically targeted the slot (28% of all throws in 2021 went to slot receivers) so this should see an upturn in production for Garrett Wilson who in his first 3 games ran 55% of routes from the slot. Another player to watch out for is Breece Hall, their rookie RB, who has been targeted a huge 15 times and can be a checkdown option for Wilson whilst the Miami D-Line led by Melvin Ingram (2 sacks) chases him down. A very tasty game should arise here as suggested by Sky making it their 6pm game, stats point to the Phins and they are a deserved 3.5 point favourites which I’d expect them to cover if Teddy B can simply manage the game.

Tips

• Over 46.5 points (10/11)

• Miami -3.5

• Garrett Wilson over 49.5 receiving yards

• Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle combined for 200 yards and 2 TDs.

Falcons (2-2) @ Buccaneers (2-2)

Another divisional matchup sees teams with contrasting season outlooks yet they’ve both accrued a 2-2 record. The Falcons were viewed by many as the worst roster in football but they’ve been surprisingly competitive so far. Veteran QB Marcus Mariota has taken the reins after Matt Ryans departure and he has struggled a lot. His 779 yards rank him bottom 10 for yardage and his completion percentage of only 58.2% puts him 3rd worst. On top of this he's one of only 5 QBS to have thrown more interceptions than touchdowns (4 INTs 3 TDs). His lack of weapons is a clear problem but more so is coach Arthur Smith’s baffling decision to line up 2nd year tight end Kyle Pitts as a blocker more often than letting the freakish athlete go and make plays. Instead the new boy in town Drake London has been the focal point accounting for 231 yards compared to Pitts 150 yards. Injuries ravaged the NFL last week and Pitts looks set to miss this and gadget man Cordarelle Patterson is out for a significant time meaning that London can expect more targets to go on top of his 32 through 4 games. The Falcons have been solid on the ground ranking 4th with 672 yards but this injury to Patterson leaves the backfield at the hands of rookie Tyler Allgeier who saw 84 yards on 10 attempts in the aftermath of Pattersons knee problem, whether he can sustain the Falcons is a huge question. For all their seemingly average abilities the Falcons 4 games have seen only 11 points between them and their opponents so this might not be the blowout many expect. Onto the Buccs who were tipped for another Superbowl run but have stalled out in their past two. In fact should they lose on Sunday this will be the first time that QB Tom Brady has lost 3 consecutive games since 2002. The weight will be on Brady’s shoulders to get the win as the Buccs rank 2nd worst in rushing yards achieving an embarrassing 261 yards thus far. Their inability to rush leaves the passing game as their bread and butter but the depth of talent at WR makes it hard to pinpoint who will put up the yards. A stat worth keeping an eye on is that Mike Evans has caught 30 TDs in 35 regular season games with Brady as his QB. The Buccs are heavy favourites for the win and this is understandable, they look set to put up big numbers at the Raymond James stadium on Sunday but the Falcons are still trying to avenge that infamous 28-3 comeback. Since Brady joined the Tampa team they’ve put up scores of 30, 48, 44 and 31 against the Falcons so expect the Buccs to build on their 31 point haul vs the Chiefs last week.

Tips

• Buccs -9.5 (10/11)

• Mike Evans 1+ TD

• Tyler Allgeier over 50 rushing yards

• Buccs over 30.5 points

Titans (2-2) @ Commanders (1-3)

The tightest of the 6pm kickoffs by way of the handicap line (Commanders 1.5 point favourites) sees the Titans visit the capital. Having won their first game the Commanders have lost 3 on the spin and are propping up the NFC East at 1-3. New QB Carson Wentz has not ignited the form he once found in Philly with the 3rd worst yards per passing attempt in the league at 6 yards per attempt. Pair this with his 5 interceptions and you’ve got a clear problem on offence. Star wideout Terry McClaurin has been kept quiet in 2 of the 4 games but exploded in losses to Detroit and Philly with 75 and 102 yards respectively. His 27 targets have only equated to 14 targets though which is the problem. This explosive potential makes him tempting on his over for yards but certainly not for receptions. For the Titans they also haven't found a strong passing game. Their offseason trade of AJ Brown (currently has 404 receiving yards) and acquisition of Treylon Burks (129 yards) with the subsequent first round pick and Robert Woods (167 yards) in a trade from the Rams isn't looking the best business thus far. Ordinarily the Titans would lean on their stud running back Derrick Henry who was on course for a 2nd consecutive 2000 yard season last year prior to injury. However the loss of O-Line players and potewntially an injury hangover has seen Henry be quiet by his standards. In fact both teams rank below par rushing the ball with 402 for the Commanders and 409 for the Titans, ranking 21st and 20th respectively. Again the teams are hard to split in their rushing defence ranking 16th and 19th with the Commanders forfeiting an average of 112 yards per game compared to the Titans 118 yards per game. As suggested by the bookies this is a tough game to separate and potentially a tough game to watch but the potential revival of Henry in week 4 may just sway this game to the Titans. The Alabama back rushed 22 times for 114 yards which is astounding relative to QB Ryan Tannehill's 21 passing attempts for 137 yards. Expect a rush heavy attritional game.

Tips

• Titans Money Line (3/4)

• Wentz over 0.5 interceptions

• Jahan Dotson 1+ receiving TD (joint league leader with Diggs on 4)

• Henry over 100 rushing yards