By Sam Cook
Carolina Panthers (2-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-4)
The Panthers come in off the back of a huge upset vs the Buccs and QB PJ Walker is presumed to start again coming up against the team that's allowed the most pass yards per game all season- over 300 (the only team over 300). They’re primarily a rushing team with 173 coming against the Buccs and 118 courtesy of Foreman who’ll lead them with Hubbard injured. Pass wise DJ Moore looks like his old self catching 7 of 10 for 69 yards and a TD last week. They face arguably the worst QB in the league Mariota who has only made 8/13 and 13/14 passing in his last two games. Granted he faced tougher opposition but it seems the Falcons want to rush. Rookie Allgeier has carried 15 and 16 times in the last two and looks set to do so again.
Tip- Foreman & Allgeier both to score a TD @4/1
Dallas Cowboys (5-2) @ Chicago Bears (3-4)
The Bears come off a short week having played on Monday but they come revitalised having beaten the Patriots in a Justin Fields dominant game. The 2nd year put up 179 yards passing and 82 on the ground along with a rushing TD. Rushing is what the Bears will lean on once again having put up 243 rush yards vs the Pats- Fields, DMont & Herbert are all candidates for 10 plus carries and 50 plus yards each. They do face off against one of the best defences though- the Cowboys have a turnover differential of plus 7 with CB Trevon Diggs responsible for 3 interceptions. Fields has struggled with interceptions and I’d worry about him throwing in Diggs direction so that likely discounts Mooney in this game. The Bears have a good defence but its their pass D that upholds it, their run D is actually allowing 150 yards a game compared to only 180 through the air. Expect a breakout game from Tony Pollard who will take a lot of snaps at RB if not all with Zeke Elliot questionable.
Tip- Pollard anytime TD @Evens
Miami Dolphins (4-3) @ Detroit Lions (1-5)
The Lions are coming off a beatdown against the Cowboys where they turned the ball over 5 times and saw QB Jared Goff sacked 5 times as well, the Miami D isn't as dominant but it’s a worrying statline. Swift is expected to return but will be supported by Jamaal Williams who impressed in his absence and racked up 79 yards last week at over 5 yards a carry. He did fumble on the goal line though so expect Swift to see redzone touches potentially. Raymond & Hockenson stepped up without Amon Ra and saw 5/6 and 4/5 catches on their respective targets- something that may well continue. The return of Tua is good news for Tyreek Hill who looks to put up monster numbers against a weak secondary, he caught 7 of 13 last week but if he sees anywhere near that many targets this week he looks set to go over 100 yards. The Lions have the 2nd worst run D in terms of rush yards allowed though (162.8) so expect Raheem Mostert to continue to solidify his position as lead running back.
Tip- Dolphins -5.5 & under 51.5 points @3/1
Arizona Cardinals (3-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-1)
The Vikings come off their bye week with a clean bill of health and they’ll look to Justin Jefferson to resume where he left off with another 100 yard game on the cards. The Cardinals allow 258 passing yards a game (8th highest) and so the dynamic receiver does look set for another big stat game. A WR who saw a big stat game was Hopkins who put up 10 catches on 14 targets for over 100 yards in his return from suspension and he looks set for another high target outing. Both teams are typically in high scoring games with the Cardinals last game seeing 76 points and 3 of the last 4 Vikings games hitting this week's over of 50.5. The Cards will be without James Connor but Eno Benjamin has proved successful in his place with 92 rush yards and 4/5 catches in the passing game. This looks set to be high scoring with lots of fantasy relevant players on both sides and across all positions. I quite fancy both QBs to go for over 300 yards but it’s such a rarity that it’s a small stakes punt, not a tip.
Tip- Alternative total match points over 52.5 @5/4
Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) @ New Orleans Saints (2-5)
Both teams have a losing record but are both far better than their record I believe, tight games and mistakes have cost both sides. Take last week the Saints put up a huge game with Dalton throwing for 361 yards and 4 TDs against the Cardinals however 3 interceptions scuppered them. Injuries also aren’t helping with veteran WRs Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry set to miss out again. This will leave RB Alvin Kamara commanding a lot of targets but also rookie Chris Olave who saw 7 catches on a huge 14 targets for 106 yards last week. This will continue with the likes of Callaway & Tre’Quan Smith also contributing and value at their over 1.5 receptions line. A positive for Dalton is that whilst he threw 3 interceptions last week the Raiders have only made 3 all year. The Saints defence likely won’t have to worry about making interceptions either because the Raiders can just hand the ball off to Josh Jacobs who has put up a league leading 441 rush yards and 6 rushing TDs in his last 3 games. He’s also contributed with 82 yards in the passing game but that rushing ability will put fear into a Saints D that has allowed the 12th most rush yards per game at 123.1, a figure that Jacobs has surpassed in all of his last 3 games. In regard to the passing game Davante Adams is starting to find his feet. He’s always seen lots of targets but last week hauled in 8/9 of them for 95 yards. Expect another strong showing this week.
Tip- Josh Jacobs 100+ rushing yards & to score a TD @2/1
New England Patriots (3-4) @ New York Jets (5-2)
This is a game full of QB uncertainty, the Jets look like they just have a game manager and win in spite of Zach Wilson whereas the Pats clearly have a problem because their 4th round rookie is clearly better than their 2021 first rounder Mac Jones. It’s unknown what the Pats will do at QB, Jones was quite clearly benched last week but Bellichek disputed this saying “he wasn’t hurt but he wasn't benched”. Looks like the Pats don’t want to have a first rounder as a bust on their bench. To diffuse the QB problem the Pats can just run the ball with Rhamondre Stevenson looking dominant this year and I’d expect a bounce back game for him against what is a strong defence. The Jets are top 10 for fewest yards allowed so expect low scoring Pats. Also its fair to expect low scoring Jets with rookie RB Breece Hall out for the season. Michael Carter will take all the snaps at RB and likely improve on his 15 carries last week. The Pats have allowed the 8th most rush yards (136.7) whilst the Jets have put up 9 rushing TDs (3rd most).
Tip- Rhamondre Stevenson 85+ rush yards & to score a TD @4/1
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)
The Eagles come in as the last undefeated team and they look set to continue that against a poor Steelers side. They average 26.8 PPG, rush 156 YPG and have two WRs both sitting at 5.5 receptions a game. They simply seem unstoppable on offence, Hurts is reaching almost 50 rush yards a game (48.8) & lead RB Miles Sanders is clearing 80.8 YPG. The Steelers meanwhile have struggled to run the ball with 2021 first rounder Najee Harris only averaging 3.3 YPC which is the worst in the league among players with 100 or more rush attempts. Another big problem is Kenny Pickett at QB. The rookie has thrown 7 interceptions and comes up against an Eagles defence that has Darius Slay & Chauncey Gardner Johnson both sitting on 3 a piece already with a further 3 coming from the rest of the team. One positive for the Steelers has been 2nd rounder George Pickens who has seen 15 catches on 20 targets since Pickett took over, and that average of 5 catches per game is well worth utilising because his over/under is only 3.5 albeit at 4/6.
Tip- Eagles -10.5 and under 44.5 total points @5/2
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