By Sam Cook
NFL 6PM Previews- Best Four Games
Denver Broncos (3-7) @ Carolina Panthers (3-8)
Two of the worst sides in the league face off but for me there’s a clear favourite. At this stage of the season teams start tanking to get the best draft pick, the problem for Denver is that they don’t own their draft pick next year in the first round so it serves no purpose to lose. Instead they need to show some winning form to try to attract free agents and also try to trigger some form with the QB they traded all those picks for- Russell Wilson. The Broncos are 1.5 point favourites in this game but I think 5/6 outright is the way to bet. Their defence is absolutely elite, conceding the second fewest points per game at just 17.1 PPG this season. Pair that with the fact the Panthers are ranked 25th for scoring by way of PPG at just 18.8, and of late just 16.3 in their last three then I think the Broncos to win and under on the points is the bet. The Broncos have just released RB Melvin Gordon so expect plenty of work for Latavius Murray who has averaged 12.6 carries a game and 41.8 YPG so far with the team. This should almost certainly increase when facing a side allowing the 7th most rush yards per game at 137 and with Murray’s over set at 61.5 I’d be tempted to back him. The RB has caught 7 passes for 23 yards a game across his last two so combining his rush with receiving yards at a line of 76.5 would be my bet instead. For the Panthers Donta Foreman is the workhorse but he faces a very good Broncos defence and so targeting him on rush attempts as opposed to yards would be the play. He’s been inconsistent of late with carry numbers of 26, 7, 31 and then 11 but against the Broncos I’d expect around 18 carries plus so any line below that I’d back. Expect a low scoring defensive minded game with the Broncos winning out.
Tips
Broncos to win @5/6
Broncos -3.5 and under 36.5 points @10/3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) @ Cleveland Browns (3-7)
The Browns host this game but they’ve won only one of their last seven games and seem to be passing time until they got QB Deshaun Watson available following his suspension. As such they’ve stuck with the run game but they face a Tampa side that have a solid run defence, only allowing 112.6 YPG over their last three games. More impressive they’ve only allowed one rushing TD so it could be a tough day for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Chubb has also lost form, averaging only 61 YPG over his last three compared to his 105.7 YPG average in his first seven games. I don’t like backing unders and at 73.5 it’s not worth backing against Chubb, but I also won’t be following him. Instead I think Donovan Peoples-Jones is the Brown to follow. He’s only been outperformed by Amari Cooper across his last three by a total of 35 yards and just two catches and has recorded receptions of 5, 5, 4, 6, 4, 4 and 5 in his last seven games. His reception line is set at 3.5 and the over is priced 6/5 which is huge when you consider he hasn't had less than 4 catches since week 3. As for the Buccs Rachaad White will likely lead the backfield so if you can get any overs on him before that’s officially announced then it’s brilliant value. Mike Evans has been the most productive Bucc lately averaging 72.3 YPG over his last three games but Chris Godwin is averaging more than 6 catches a game and an incredible 9.6 targets. Because of that his line has been set at over 6.5 receptions which is far too steep, instead Mike Evans is the play at over 4.5 which he’s surpassed in his last four games. Expect a Buccs win here but plenty of points both ways.
Tips
DPJ over 3.5 receptions @6/5 Huge Value Here
Mike Evans over 4.5 receptions @10/11
Baltimore Ravens (7-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
The Jags only have one win in seven and that was on account of the Raiders bottling a 20 point lead, I don’t think the Ravens will do that even if they have been struggling with injuries. Priced as just 3.5 point favourites I think the Ravens injuries are being overestimated when you consider they’ve played a lot of the season with injuries and still have a great record. They should easily beat the Jags based on their brilliant defence of late conceding only 12.6 PPG over their last three. They’re also on a four game win streak and have conceded just 47 rush yards per game in their last three, Etienne is the Jags biggest threat so he could be nullified. His under 69.5 could represent value.
Tips
Ravens to win @1/2
Jags under 14.5 points @9/4
Houston Texans (1-1-8) @ Miami Dolphins (7-3)
The Phins are huge favourites here with a 13.5 point handicap and I think they could cover it. They’re averaging 35 points a game over their last three and the Texans are in free fall even benching QB Davis Mills for this game reportedly. Dameon Pierce will be leant on for the Texans but the Dolphins could set off to such a quick lead that the Texans will resort to passing. I’d be taking the overs on both Waddle and Hill given that they both feature in the top ten for yards across their last three. Hill is averaging 125 YPG and Waddle 85.7. Also the Texans concede 178.5 rush YPG this season so Jeff Wilson might also get in on the action. Factor in Tua as having the second most passing yards over the last three and it’s fair to say the Texans are in trouble.
Tips
Waddle over 67.5 receiving yards @5/6
Hill over 92.5 receiving yards @5/6
Tua 250+ yards, Hill 80+ and Wilson 80+ @12/5
6PM acca- Buccs, Ravens, Broncos to win & Miami -5.5 @4.3/1
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