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Sam Cook

NFL Redzone: Previews and Tips

By Sam Cook

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-7)

The Steelers sit at the foot of the AFC North and will just look to see the season out without major injuries. One man who has been carrying an oblique injury this week is Najee Harris, the second year running-back has been ineffective this year and Tomlin may well limit his touches this week on account of the minimal chance to make the playoffs. As such Benny Snell Jr will take the lead and after a 65 yard game and a TD on Monday against the Colts I think there’s value to be had. With the bookies being slow to release rushing props I think taking Snell TD anytime is the bet, the Falcons have allowed 182.6 rush YPG over the past three games as well as four TDs. Snell should take advantage of this and at 9/4 I think he’s overpriced. If/when yardage props are released I’d advise hammering them given the Steelers rank third for rushing yards over the past three with 163.6 YPG in contrast to the Falcons shocking second most allowed.


The Falcons will also try to run the ball as they rank fourth for rush YPG across the season with 160 as well as 153.3 across their last three. Nailing down the man to get the yards is tough though with Patterson, Allgeier and even QB Mariota all recording impressive numbers. Last week saw the three record 52, 54 and 49 yards respectively. Just one week earlier Allgeier and Patterson tallied 55 and 52 yards so consistency amongst split carries is evident. Because of this I favour taking the lower line and that belongs to rookie Allgeier at 43.5 which he’s passed in three of his last four. With running the clear strength of offence for both sides this could be a slow game which would lend itself to the under 42.5 points. With both sides priced 10/11 I think the Falcons are maybe slight value given the home advantage and the fact playoffs are still within reach in the poor NFC South.

Tips

  • Benny Snell overs (unpriced) & anytime TD @9/4

  • Tyler Allgeier over 43.5 rushing yards @10/11


Denver Broncos (3-8) @ Baltimore Ravens (7-4)

The Broncos shocking season with the high paid Russell Wilson continuing to disappoint at QB. A third consecutive loss came last week and even worse only 10 points scored, that equates to only 12 PPG scored in those three losses, By contrast the Ravens have scored almost double that with 22.3 PPG and will look to bounce back from their shock loss to the Jaguars. The passing form of Lamar Jackson has been a sticking point for the Ravens lately and he faces the third best defence by way of passing yards allowed at 184.7 YPG. They’ve also allowed a league low nine passing TDs and with Lamar only tallying four in his last five games the Ravens will have to lean on the run game again. That will see Jackson himself look to add to his 202 yards in his last three games and with an over of 59.5 rush yards he could be worth a bet. The line I prefer is that of Gus Edwards which is set at 54.5. Edwards returned from his injury last week and made 52 yards, in his two other games this season he made 66 and 65 so with another week of practice and the clear assumption that the Ravens will rush instead of pass I think Edwards is definitely worth backing on the over.


For the Broncos they’ll look to Latavius Murray in the run game. With Wilson’s poor passing form and both star WRs (Jeudy and Sutton) struggling with illness, although expected to play will potentially be limited. The return of Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey and the fitness of rookie safety Kyle Hamilton on the up will also prove a tough pass defence, hence Murray is the play. With Melvin Gordon being released, Mike Boone only just returning from IR and Murray recording a season high 92 yards at 7.1 yards per carry last week I think his over 52.5 looks amazing. Despite Murray only passing this total twice and the Ravens having an elite run defence conceding only 82 rush YPG I just think with Wilson struggling, WRs off the back of illness and a strengthened Ravens secondary that through sheer carry numbers I think Murray will surpass the total. The Ravens are heavy favourites and I do expect a bounce-back win for them but with the Broncos elite defence a 9.5 handicap seems too good to ignore.

Tips

  • Jackson, Edwards & Murray all to rush 50+ yards @10/3

  • Denver Broncos +9.5 @10/11


Green Bay Packers (4-8) @ Chicago Bears (3-9)

Both of these teams languish at the bottom of the NFC North and whilst one is having issues with their veteran QB costing them games the other have a fledgling QB who is looking like a shining light and the future of the franchise. Despite Justin Fields performing to a very high level his Bears haven’t been getting the results and with star WR Darnell Mooney now out injured it’s fair to assume Chicago will revert back to their dominant run game, of which Fields plays a major role. With the Packers ranking second worst on the season for rush yards allowed per game (154.8) and also being in particularly poor form in that area having conceded an average of 203.3 YPG across their last three games, backing the Bears rushing props looks the play. The Bears have averaged 181.6 rush YPG over the last three games with Fields leading the way at 77.3 YPG. Fields remains questionable at the minute so instead it’s worth going with the trusty Montgomery who recorded 79 yards last week. His line is set at 67.5 and I think even with or without Fields he should pass this total given the Packers deficiencies.


The Packers have seemingly found their WR1 and that’s rookie Christian Watson who’s put up an average of 88.3 YPG in his last three. That also comes with an incredible six TDs but the worry is the lack of receptions. Catching an average of just four balls a game over the last three is worrying because it’s doubtful he can keep up his incredible average of 22.1 yards per catch. However the bookies have set a line of just 46.5 which Watson could easily clear in one catch and will go very close with just two if he replicates his recent form. 11/8 for the in-form WR to score a TD also seems hard to ignore given his form. The Packers are 4.5 point favourites but if Fields returns that will get a lot smaller.

Tips

  • David Montgomery over 67.5 rushing yards @10/11

  • Christian Watson over 46.5 yards @10/11 & anytime time TD @11/8 - combing the two is 31/10 on Bet Victor’s Bet Builder


Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) @ Detroit Lions (4-7)

The Lions three game winning streak ended when they were defeated by the Bills on Thanksgiving courtesy of a late field goal and over their last three they’ve put up an impressive 87 points. That averages 29 PPG and ranks fourth in the league but worryingly for the Lions they also rank 10th for PPG allowed in the same period averaging 25.3 PPG. As such the over has been set at 51.5 and with the Jags huge comeback win against the high-flying Ravens clearing that mark it could be a solid bet. Two of the league leading receivers across the last three games feature in this match-up with Detroit’s Amon Ra St-Brown averaging 105.7 YPG and a league high 8.6 receptions, second in that stat is Jags Zay Jones who’s averaged 8 receptions in that same period to accrue 84.3 YPG. Both players to record 70+ yards (St-Brown) and 65+ (Jones) are priced at 14/5 and that looks a really tempting bet. With Jones listed as questionable Christian Kirk will see plenty of looks but he’s been very boom or bust.


The Lions have allowed 170 yards a game on the ground over their last three including five rushing TDs, they also are allowing the highest yards per carry rate of 5.7. If Travis Etienne is utilised then he should smash his line of 60.5 but with potential that the Jags rest him to ensure his injury doesn’t become any more complicated then Jamycal Hasty could be a clever bet. The run game was abandoned last week against the Ravens but surely with the poor Lions they’ll go back to the ground where Hasty took 12 carries last week. Unpriced for yards at the moment I think anytime TD at 11/8 is a bet, and backing league leading rush TD man Jamaal Williams at 8/11 is rarely a bet that loses given he’s tallied 13 TDs in 11 games crossing into the end-zone in seven separate games. Only a 1.5 handicap to the Lions, probably on account of home-field advantage I think avoiding the result and just expecting points is the way to play this.

Tips

  • Over 51.5 points @10/11

  • Amon Ra St-Brown overs on yards & receptions

  • Zay Jones overs on yards & receptions if fit

  • Williams anytime TD @8/11 and Hasty over yards when priced


Cleveland Browns (4-7) @ Houston Texans (1-1-9)

The return of Deshaun Watson and as if by some coincidence by the schedule makers his first game sees him return to his former team. The Texans are the worst team in football and have dropped Davis Mills and will be without star WR Brandin Cooks and first round CB Derek Stingley Jr. The Browns obviously have upgraded at QB and are fresh off a win over Brady’s Tampa Bay, this game surely only goes one way. With a handicap line of 7.5 priced quite reasonably I think the Browns can cover this but the question is how will Watson do? The Browns have the luxury of a brilliant RB pair to alleviate any issues Watson could face and that was exemplified last week with RB Nick Chubb carrying a huge 26 times for 116 yards and a TD. That was a huge jump from his lacklustre 19 yards against the Bills, however he’ll continue a dominant running performance considering the Texans allow a league high 168.6 rush YPG as well as 15 TDs which ranks tied-fourth. Chubb has a line of 94.5 yards and he should clear it easily, the only worry is whether the Browns force the pass to try and settle Watson in. Even if they do, you’d hope Chubb can break off a huge run and cover his over. With anytime TD priced only 8/15 it doesn’t represent value and at just 13/8 for 100+ yards and a TD I also don’t think that screams value.


Instead looking at the receivers and chancing it that Watson settles in immediately I like Donovan Peoples-Jones to have a great game. DPJ had an off week against the Buccs but prior to that he’d recorded an average of five catches a game and 78 YPG across those four games. A line of just 47.5 yards and 3.5 receptions priced at evens makes him a bet for me. The other man who’ll benefit massively is Amari Cooper and with back to back games of 94 and 113 yards on 7 and 8 receptions he looks set to cover his 65.5 yards and 4.5 receptions. A five game average of 88.8 YPG and a Texans defence that doesn’t have Stingley makes me want to double down on Cooper and DPJ. For the Texans the only real options are Nico Collins and Dameon Pierce but I foresee a beat-down by the Browns and don’t want to chance those poor Texan players.

Tips

  • Browns -7.5 @10/11

  • DPJ over 3.5 receptions @evens

  • Amari Cooper over 65.5 receiving yards @10/11

  • Chubb over 94.5 rush yards @10/11

  • Watson 250+ pass yards, Chubb 80+ rush yards & Cooper 80+ receiving yards @9/2


New York Jets (7-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (9-2)

Both of these sides saw bounce back wins last week after losses in which they both only managed 3 points. Weirdly the Vikings bounced back with a win over the Pats, the side that had beaten the Jets just one week prior. Couple that with the home advantage for the Vikings and the Jets having undrafted Mike White as QB then I think the Vikings are a solid pick. The Vikings feature prominently in lots of stats over the last three but on offence they look very good, especially for a side that only scored 3 points in one of those last 3. Dalvin Cook ranks ninth for rushing yards with 77.6 YPG whilst Justin Jefferson leads the league in receiving yards with a huge 121.7 YPG. Outside of the lowly three point performance they’ve tallied 33 PPG in the other two and will try to expose a Jets defence that’s ranked 5th on the season for PPG allowed at 17.8. If the Jets contain the powerful Vikings offence then they will be set up incredibly well to win given that the Vikings have conceded the most passing yards over the last three. Allowing an average 339.6 YPG and a huge 32 PPG (both are league highs) the Vikings have the tendency to get involved in very high scoring games and the over 44.5 looks far too low and is a bet I’m really keen on. What’s worrying though is Mike White at QB however his career average (three games last season and one game last week) is 293.25 pass YPG as well as 2 pass TDs per game. What is the worry would be the five interceptions.


If White continues on a high yardage trend then Garrett Wilson will be the man to benefit seeing eight targets last week but more importantly 2 TDs and 95 yards. That was the third game in which he surpassed 90 yards in his last four games. Outside of the disaster game against the Pats he has averaged over six catches a game and 100.6 YPG in his last three. Playing against the leakiest pass defence in the league of late I think backing him to surpass 58.5 yards is the NAP of the week. I’d even back him in a head to head with Justin Jefferson for most yards in this game as the Vikings star man will be facing off with Sauce Gardner who is almost guaranteed to be crowned defensive rookie of the year. The 2022 draft’s third overall pick has been immense this year and locked down some of the stars of the game. In spite of Jefferson’s insane form I don’t fancy his over 83.5 yards. My thoughts on the game would be Vikings win, over on the points and a high yardage performance from Dalvin Cook, T.J. Hockenson and then Garrett Wilson putting up numbers in response.

Tips

  • Garrett Wilson over 58.5 receiving yards @10/11

  • Dalvin Cook over 68.5 rushing yards @10/11

  • Vikings -2.5 and over 42.5 points @2/1


Washington Commanders (7-5) @ New York Giants (7-4)

This game is of huge importance to both teams with the NFC East being one of the most competitive divisions in the league after years of being the worst. A record of 7-4 would lead or tie the lead in four of the eight divisions but it’s actually the third best record in this division. Both sides are chasing the Eagles (10-1) and Cowboys (8-3) so the loser of this game could find themselves out of contention for the playoffs, despite their positive record. The Commanders have found their identity as a rushing team and have racked up the fourth most rush yards in the last three, clocking just over 160 ground yards a game. They’ll look to expose a Giants defence that’s been allowing 143.3 rush YPG ranking eighth worst in the league. More worryingly for the Giants is that they’ve allowed a league high six TDs during that time. Rookie Brian Robinson is tallying 82.6 rush YPG and with a line of 62.5 against such a poor rush defence I think he’s definitely worth backing. Another man for the Commanders who has flourished is Terry McClaurin and is now ranking eighth in the league for total receiving yards having formed a brilliant connection with Taylor Heinicke. Since Heinicke took over McClaurin has averaged 5.3 receptions a game and yardage of 78.8 per game. The Giants have allowed WR1s 106, 76 and 72 yards in their last three games so McClaurin’s 62.5 looks something that both he’s outdoing and his opposition are easily allowing. The Robinson McClaurin double of both to get 75+ yards in their respective fields of rush and receiving is 24/5 which is very nicely priced.


For the Giants Darius Slayton has found his way to a spot just outside the top 10 for receiving yards over the last three games. Slayton is averaging 81.3 YPG on a league high 22.2 yards per catch. This may not be sustainable and he doesn’t have the volume to ensure consistent catches, averaging just 3.75 catches a game. Slayton is questionable and therefore unpriced, however NFL insiders expect him to be healthy enough to play so when that’s confirmed I’d take his over if it’s around 50 yards. The other threat for the Giants is RB Saquon Barkley who after an amazing start to the season has slowed up a little bit. Even still he’s recorded 71 YPG over his last three whilst scoring two TDs. The Commanders have had a top eight rush defence in their last three though so this form could continue to slow down and therefore I think the Commanders will secure the win before heading into their much-needed bye week. Priced as 2.5 point favourites I think they’re better backed on the money line at 8/11 with Robinson and McClaurin seeing them over the line.

Tips

  • Commanders money line win @8/11

  • Brian Robinson over 62.5 rushing yards @10/11

  • Robinson over 75+ rushing yards & McClaurin over 75+ receiving yards @24/5 with Bet Victor Bet Builder


Tennessee Titans (7-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)

The Eagles responded to their loss against the Commanders with back to back wins including 40 points against the Packers last week. The Titans have just two losses in their last nine games, one being an overtime loss to the Chiefs and the other being last week's four point loss to the Bengals. They’re a very difficult side to put away and I think the 4.5 point handicap line reflects that. Key for the Titans is trying to slow down the Eagles offence who have surpassed 20 points in all but one of their games. Jalen Hurts leads the Eagles and has utilised his legs a lot more recently which is a cause/correlation as to why he has the fewest passing yards in the league over his last three at 172.7 pass YPG. Despite this Hurts still has five passing TDS and only one interception but his legs have been incredible. Averaging 90.3 rush YPG and 2 TDs in those last three games he ranks third in the league, ahead of lead running back Miles Sanders who sits eighth in that period with an 81.3 yard average and another two TDs. This has equated to the Eagles leading the league in rush yards over the past three clocking in 199.3 rush YPG. Coming up against a Titans side allowing just 76.3 YPG it’s a case of who will break first and I favour it to be the Titans defence. Hurts, Sanders and the Titans imperious Henry all to record 50+ rushing yards is priced at 21/10 and I think is well worth a bet.


Henry has actually lost form lately but he still ranks second in the league with 1048 yards. The Bengals stifled him and he only put up 38 yards but that was just the first time since week two that he hasn’t recorded 50 yards or more. He had a five game spell from week 5-9 (on bye in week 6) where he recorded 114, 102, 128, 219 and 115 rushing yards and a monstrous seven TDs. There’s no reason why last week's off week won’t trigger a huge response from him and I think that’s what we’ll see. His over 85.5 rush yards is something I think he can pass, averaging 95.2 rush yards a game this year. Pair that with Sanders recent form and yearly average of 81.8 YPG I’ll take Skys price boost of Sanders and Henry both to record 80+ rushing yards. With a game that’s slated to be very rush heavy I can see it being slow and attritional so I think under 43.5 could land but I’ll favour the Eagles as the home side in what I think will be a very close game.

Tips

  • Hurts, Sanders & Henry all 50+ rush yards @21/10

  • Sanders & Henry 80+ rushing yards @6/1


In terms of the whole 6PM schedule I like the Sky price boost in their Redzone specials section of the Williams, Chubb & Henry all to score a TD at 5/1. The later game slate of Kelce, Jacobs and Walker all to score a TD at 6s as well as Chiefs, Bengals and Chargers all to score 20+ points at 7/4 looks good to me. Good luck.

*Terms and conditions apply: Place a £10 bet on a single with odds greater than 2/5. First £5 free bet credited once the £10 qualifying bet has settled. Second £5 free bet credited once the first £5 free bet has settled. Free spins credited as soon as the £10 qualifying bet has been placed (No promo code required).18+ Only. Gamble Responsibly. Prices accurate as of 10:40 4/12/2022

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