By Sam Cook
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8) @ Carolina Panthers (5-8)
These are two teams that in theory have nothing to play for however they could end up being quarterbacked by two players trying to save their career. Sam Darnold has had something of a resurgence in the past two games with the Panthers securing two victories, and in doing so forging one last chance as a starter. For the Steelers their first round rookie QB Kenny Pickett played only one snap in their close loss to the Ravens as he suffered a concussion, which could see him miss this week too. Trubisky stepped in and went for 276 yards but his three interceptions cost the team. This could be the last chance for both QBs and the close line reflects that with the Panthers taking a 2.5 headstart into the game. Diontae Johnson has been the Steelers stand-out man and has led the team in catches over the last three with stats of 5/8 for 49 yards, 5/11 for 60 yards and 6/8 for 82 yards. He doesn’t carry a TD threat but is consistent on targets and receptions so his over 46.5 receiving yards seems a really obvious bet. Najee Harris has two TDs across his last three games but faces a Panthers defence that’s not allowed a rushing TD in its last four games. In fact their defence ranks 5th in total for fantasy points allowed over the last two, which is often a strong reflection of betting odds and statistics, however there is one outlier which is ranking 32nd to wide receiver points. Per game over the last two they’ve allowed 15 receptions to WRs but incredibly three TDS a game. Rookie George Pickens leads the side in receiving TDs at WR so I’m taking him to score a TD, especially because Diontae Johnson will receive the attention of the Panthers star cornerback. Pickens is priced at 11/4. Generally though this should be low scoring, the Panthers will run a lot with Foreman tallying 341 rushing yards in his last four and going over 100 yards twice, his over 64.5 rushing yards is a bet for me as is under 37.5 points. That’s been the case in two of each team's last three games and the season average points for each team is 17.5 (6th lowest) for the Steelers and 20 (9th lowest) for the Panthers which sits perfectly on the handicap line.
Tips
Diontae Johnson over 46.5 receiving yards @10/11
Pickens anytime TD @11/4
Foreman over 64.5 rushing yards @10/11
Philadelphia Eagles (12-1) @ Chicago Bears (3-10)
This game pits the NFCs best team against the worst, or at least in terms of record; however the Bears are certainly better than a 3-10 team if/when Justin Fields is healthy. It’s reported that the second-year player should play in this game which I think increases the Bears chances ten-fold, although probably not enough to defeat the team with the best record in football. The Bears could well see the season out with four losses to ensure the highest possible draft pick whilst the Eagles are still being chased by the Vikings for the number one seed and the Cowboys in their own division so the Eagles at 2/7 seems value, despite its short price. The Bears have the 11th best pass defence in terms of yards allowed but the fifth worst rush defence by the same metric which would suggest another strong performance from QB Jalen Hurts and RB Miles Sanders. The latter has five TDs in his last three games and has tallied 143 and 144 yards in two of those, so his over 68.5 rushing yards is NAP potential for me, I think it’s an incredible bet. Similarly Jalen Hurts has a rushing TD in each of his last two games and ran for 77 yards last week and only three weeks ago ran for an incredible 157 yards against the Packers. Green Bay allow an average of 154.8 rush yards per game compared to the Bears 146.3 but it can still be assumed that both Hurts and Sanders will run a lot. The other main men of late have been AJ Brown and Devonta Smith both scoring a TD last week and recording 70 and 64 yards respectively. Both surpassed 100 yards the game before against the Titans with Brown scoring two TDs and Smith the one. Browns line is 67.5 but with Smiths at 53.5 I think thats the one to take, although I can see all four of Phillies main weapons clearing their lines. For the Bears expect Fields to utilise his legs because the Eagles have allowed the least passing yards per game so he’ll have to resort to his run game which carried him for 71 yards last week, and his line is set as such at 70.5.
Tips
Miles Sanders over 68.5 rushing yards @10/11
Devonta Smith over 53.5 receiving yards @10/11
AJ Brown & Smith 60+ receiving yards and Sander & Hurts 60+ rushing @13/2
Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) @ Houston Texans (1-1-11)
The Texans got a lot closer than most expected last week against the Cowboys losing by just four points despite a 17.5 point handicap line suggesting otherwise, however this week I think the Chiefs will overcome the 13.5 point handicap which is priced at evens. The Chiefs have scored 26 or more in all of their last five games and average the most PPG in the league, whereas outside of last week's game against the Cowboys the Texans have failed to surpass 17 points in the last six weeks. Mahomes has the fifth most passing yards across the league in his last three averaging just under 300 yards a game with a total of 895, however the Texans have the worst rush defence in the league so the Chiefs could change tact and use the McKinnon Pacheco combo at running back. The rookie Pacheco recorded 69 yards last week following up on his 66 from the week prior and 69 the game before. This is a clear pattern but when facing the worst run defence in the league I expect him to surpass those tallies and therefore over 68.5 rushing yards is a definite bet for me. McKinnon has been making plenty of catches and even scored two TDs last week, something I back him to do again this week priced at 5/4. For the Texans Dameon Pierce is injured so Rex Burkhead should take the carries but is unpriced at the moment.
Tips
Pacheco over 68.5 rushing yards @10/11
McKinnon anytime TD @5/4
Pacheco to score first for his team & Kelce to scored anytime @8/1
Dallas Cowboys (10-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8)
The Cowboys had a scare against an AFC South team last week when they only beat the Texans 27-23 but I expect they’ve learnt from that game and will be back on it in this game.The Jags had a brilliant divisional win against the Titans with Trevor Lawrence being particularly impressive passing for 368 yards and 3 TDs whilst also rushing for one. That score of 36 was the highest the Jags had put up since week three and I expect them to revert closer to their average of 22.6 PPG as they face a Cowboys defence ranked third for fewest points conceded, only allowing an average of 17.6 PPG. The Cowboys lead the league in interceptions per game over the last four games with 1.3 per game so will be defensively sound. Offensively though they rank third for most PPG with 27.7 and Tony Pollard has been on fire for them lately. Pollard averages 64 rush YPG over the last three scoring three TDs but his receiving averages have declined to just under three catches per game. The beneficiary of this have been Ceedee Lamb and Dalton Schultz who have amassed 210 yards and 151 respectively in their last three games. Those average out at 70 and 50 yards per game and their lines sit at at 69.5 and 44.5 which makes me lean towards backing Schultz, especially considering the Jags allow the second most fantasy points to tight-ends since week 12 with an average of 7.3 receptions and 89.3 yards. As a result of this I’d also back Schultz to score a TD at 7/4, whilst both Pollard and Schultz to score is priced nicely at 9/2. For the Jags their breakout player of late has been TE Evan Engram who recorded an incredible 11 catches, 162 yards and two TDs in their win over the Titans. Unfortunately for him the Cowboys rank 3rd against TEs in the same period where the Jags rank 31st suggesting he will struggle to get close to replicating those stats. Instead the Cowboys rank 22nd to WRs allowing over 160 yards, which would benefit Zay Jones who saw 12 targets last week catching eight of those. Receptions aren’t priced yet but over 3.5 is something I’d back but over 55.5 yards is definitely worth a bet.
Tips
Dalton Schultz over 44.5 receiving yards @10/11
Tony Pollard over 74.5 rush/receiving yards @5/6
Schultz anytime TD @7/4 and Schultz and Pollard both to score @9/2
Zay Jones & Dalton Schultz both 75+ receiving yards @17/2
Atlanta Falcons (5-8) @ New Orleans Saints (4-9)
Ordinarily teams with this kind of record would give up and tank till season end but in the NFC South the Buccs lead the way with a shoddy 6-7 record meaning a win for either of these teams, particularly the Falcons puts them close to play-off football. The Falcons are 7/4 and 4.5 point underdogs as they visit the Saints however I think they’re brilliant value at that price considering the Saints have an injury list as long as your arm. Both teams have lost their last two but the Falcons last five losses have seen four only by single digits. Rookie QB Desmond Ridder will take the lead here with Mariota injured so the Falcons will help him by leaning on their running game so I expect both Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson to rush plenty of times. Allgeier has surpassed 50 yards or more in his last three so a line of over 44.5 yards is one I’ll definitely be backing. Patterson has also gone for similar yardage, recording 52, 52 and 60 in his last three and his rushing line is 51.5 so could be very tight, but considering I think that the Falcons will lean on their rush to help Ridder I can see both passing. The Saints allow an average of 125 rushing yards so it’s fair to assume that both Patterson and Allgeier can both surpass their line. For the Saints they’ll target a Falcons defence allowing the third most yards per game, and ranking in the bottom 10 for both rush and pass yards per game you’d expect Alvin Kamara to dominate. However AK47 has been struggling lately averaging just 27 rush yards over his last three and 32 receiving in the same period so I’m backing him on the under 95.5 rush/receiving yards, which is always a risk but given his form seems the obvious pick. Chris Olave is the Saints main weapon at the moment surpassing 60 yards in his last two games and 100 yards in the game prior, a line of 60.5 receiving yards against a Falcons defence that lacks a lot is something I’ll be backing.
Tips
Falcons +2.5 and over 42.5 points @3/1
Allgeier over 44.5 rushing yards @10/11
Olave over 60.5 receiving yards @10/11
Olave, Landry & London 50+ receiving yards and Kamara & Patterson 75+ rushing yards @150/1 Minimum Stakes
Detroit Lions (6-7) @ New York Jets (7-6)
Jared Goff heads into this game with the third most yards in the league over the last three games having averaged 303.3 yards per game and an incredible seven TDs to zero interceptions. On the other side the Jets will revert back to second-year QB Zach Wilson as Mike White is out with concussion, therefore the Jets will likely lean on the run game as Wilson has proved untrustworthy this season. The Jets have lost their last two whilst the Lions have won five of their last six and only lost to the Bills thanks to a last second field goal so the Lions at evens seem a great bet. Goff will face a test to replicate his form as he’s facing the defence that’s allowed the second fewest passing since week 12, averaging just 166.3 yards. Regardless, expect most of Goff’s yards to go to Amon-Ra St Brown who has been dominant lately averaging over seven receptions a game in his last five and an incredible 99.8 YPG including three performances over 100 yards. He’ll face star rookie CB Sauce Gardener but his over is still worth backing at 72.5 yards. Jamaal Williams leads the league in TDs so again back him for a TD as he’s over evens for the first time in a while at 6/5. Rookie Zonovan Knight has impressed lately recording 69, 90 and 70 yards in his last three games which also happen to be his first three for the Jets. His line is set at 64.5 yards which I like the look of, in spite of the Lions recent impressive run defence stats. I’d rather take their season-long performance which sees them allowing 139.8 rush YPG ranked seventh most.
Tips
Amon-Ra St Brown over 72.5 receiving yards @10/11
Jamaal Williams anytime TD @6/5
Lions to win @Evens
My other bets feature in the Sky Bet Redzone section and would be the price boost that sees the Chiefs, Cowboys and Eagles all to score 20+ points at Evens and I think all three to score 35+ at 25/1 is worth a pound or two as well. The TD treble of Sanders, Pollard and Kelce at 8/1 is also exceptional value and includes three players all previously mentioned or tipped to do well.
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