NFL Redzone: 6pm Previews & Tips

By Sam Cook

6PM NFL Previews

Chicago Bears (3-7) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-6)

The Bears will come into this game full of confidence despite three successive defeats and that’s because their second year QB, Justin Fields, is finally finding his feet in the NFL and has been arguably one of the best QBs across his last 4 games. His stats across those last 4 read 59/92 (64.1% far beyond his season average of 58.9%) for 620 yards, 8 TDs and only 2 INTS. These stats only equate to 155 YPG but that’s a vast improvement on some of the early season games. What’s made him so good though is his ability to run as he averages 116.75 rush YPG across these 4 including the most yards ever for a QB in a single game (178) and also 5 TDs. As a result the Bears have been able to put up 31 PPG over their last 4 (leads the league) which is in stark contrast to their first 6 games where they averaged only 15.2 PPG. They face a Falcons team that leaked the second most yards per game (399.5) including the most passing yards at 280.1. Fields will have a chance to keep improving his passing stats and the main benefactors will be Darnell Mooney who has caught 16/17 in his last 3 games for an average of 56.6 YPG, his over 43.5 seems too low considering he’s cleared this in 6 of his last 7 games. Obviously the Bears will continue to run as they have the most prolific run offence in the league averaging 201.7 YPG but Fields is taking so many carries at present it’s hard to back the RBs. Instead stick with Fields and over 71.5 yards, a feat he’s completed in 4 of his last 5 games. For the Falcons they will also look to rush as the Bears allow the 5th most rushing yards (142 YPG) and the Falcons themselves rank 4th for rushing yards at 160.2 YPG. Veteran Cordarrelle Patterson hasn’t shone on his return from injury with only 62 yards across 2 games but this is a great opportunity to rediscover his form so I’ll take over 44.5.

Tips

• Both teams to score 20+ points @ Evens

• Mariota & Fields both to pass for 200 Yards & rush for 50+ @ 28/1

Carolina Panthers (3-7) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

The Ravens return from their bye week looking healthier and they’ll hope to push to 4 consecutive wins in order to make a strong playoff charge. They’re expected to do so being priced as 12.5 point favourites against a Panthers side that got themselves an important win last week. The Panthers avenged their week 8 overtime loss to the Falcons by beating them 25-15 and they did so by running the ball down the Falcons neck all night long. Donta Foreman carried the ball a ridiculous 31 times and the team rushed on 47 occasions as a whole to put up 232 rushing yards on a Falcons defence that typically struggles with the pass. It’s a similar situation this week, they play a Ravens side that ranks 5th for most passing yards allowed (258.8 per game) but have the 3rd best rush defence allowing only 92 YPG on the ground. A lack of confidence in QB PJ Walker may lead them to carry on with the rush but should the Ravens get a lead he’ll be relied on to pass and I would expect an INT with the Ravens averaging 1 per game and Walker having thrown 3 in his last 3. The Ravens also have a QB out of form in Lamar Jackson who has had passing completion percentages of 54.6, 56.3, 53.1 and 59.4 in 4 of his last 5 games. Pair that with only 5 passing TDs in those 5 compared to 11 in his first 4 games he has struggled a lot. Granted there have been injuries and he’ll hope that TE Mark Andrews is back to his best this week, as the man who leads the team with 488 yards put up only 33 yards in a win against the Buccs- far shy of his 15/21 for 2 TDs and 195 yards in his two games before this. Andrews is unpriced at present but I expect a bounce back game that has allowed 232.2 pass YPG. Lamar’s rushing threat will exist but I don’t think there’s enough healthy offensive players in this Ravens side to justify a 12.5 handicap.

Tips

• Panthers +12.5 @10/11

• Foreman and Jackson 50+ rushing yards each @7/4

Cleveland Browns (3-6) @ Buffalo Bills (6-3) *Being played at a neutral location in Detroit due to snow in Buffalo*

The Bills are coming off back to back losses for the first time since week 15 last season where they swiftly responded with a 31-14 victory over the Carolina Panthers as 1/9 favourites. This time they’re 1/4 with those odds having shortened and the handicap line lessened from 9.5 to 7.5 given the neutral location. I still expect a Bills win but the injury that Josh Allen is carrying is far from ideal. Instead work may go to Devin Singletary who has been in a good vein of form as he plays for a new contract. He recorded 2 TDs, his first of the season, against the Vikings and excluding his poor performance against the Jets he has been averaging 60.25 YPG over his last 4. That’s not incredible numbers for most RBs but for a Buffalo RB where the run game is quite neglected it’s very impressive. Lines have yet to be reestablished with the venue change but if he is around 45 yards, as he normally is, I think he is worth taking on the over against a Cleveland side that 10th for most rushing yards allowed per game at 131.1. They were also punished for 195 yards last week against the Dolphins who rank 29th for rushing yards per game at only 97.7. As such I think the Bills could capitalise on the run game which is something the Browns have done all season long ranking 5th for most rushing YPG at 158.8. This is built on Nick Chubb who ranks 3rd with 904 rushing yards on the season and the most TDs 11. Stopping him will be the Bills priority however they have allowed 147, 174 and 208 rush yards in their last 3 without facing a single top 10 rushing side. Expect Chubb to hit 100 yards again and maybe even Amari Cooper could go off after the way WR1 Justin Jefferson dominated the Bills secondary last week.

Tips

• Chubb 100+ yards- Not priced yet.

• Devin Singletary over rushing yards- Not priced yet but expecting mid 40s or less.

Washington Commanders (5-5) @ Houston Texans (1-7)

The Commanders come into week 11 having just beaten the team with the best record in football and they now get the reward of playing the team with the worst record in football. The Texans have lost 4 on the spin and all by a TD or more so with the Commanders priced 21/20 and the handicap being only 3.5 I think they’re a very solid bet. Obviously they could look past the Texans given their huge divisional win against the Eagles but they’ve got something good going at the moment with Taylor Heinicke at QB. The change in WR Terry McLaurin’s stats with and without Heinicke is huge. McLaurin has 737 yards on the season but more than half of them (370) have come in the 4 games with Heinicke at QB. As such McLaurin’s averaging 92.5 YPG at the moment with 6 receptions on 9 targets a game. If we assume this to continue, which I do considering the Texans allow 226.6 receiving YPG, then his over 59.5 yards looks like it could be a NAP potential type bet. The only deterrent would be that the Texans have by far the worst rushing defence in the league allowing 181.8 YPG. Rookie Brian Robinson is coming off the back of an 86 yard game and he’ll see this as an opportunity to record his first 100 yard game. Since the bye week in Week 6 the Texans have allowed 152, 93, 219, 143 to the oppositions lead running back so Robinsons over 63.5 also looks incredibly tempting. For the Texans I don’t think there's ever much to bet on except for their shining light Dameon Pierce who has 772 yards on the ground this season, by far the most by a rookie and ranking him 6th across the league. His last two games have seen him hit 5.1 and 5.5 YPC for totals of 139 and 94 respectively but he faces the 12th best run defence so I might shy away from his over 79.5, even if form suggests he might smash it.

Tips

• Commanders +3.5 @21/20

• Robinson 70+ rushing yards & McLaurin 70+ receiving yards @7/2 Bet Victor Bet Builder

Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1)

The Eagles head into Indianapolis coming off their first loss of the season and they’re facing a coach who has a 100% win rate as an NFL Head Coach in Jeff Saturday. The Colts made the strange decision to fire a very capable coach in Frank Reich to go get Jeff Saturday, their former player and TV analyst, signed up despite him having never coached in the league. It’s the NFL equivalent of Leicester sacking Brendan Rodgers and bringing in Wes Morgan to manage them. Anyway he managed to coach his side to a win against the Raiders who reportedly won’t fire their Head Coach Josh McDaniels purely for financial reasons. That win snapped a 3 game losing streak and was the first time in 4 that they surpassed 20 points winning 25-20. They found their rushing game again with Saturday, being a former offensive lineman, clearly making that his key focus with Jonathon Taylor putting a season best 147 yard and a TD performance in. That one game accounted for almost a quarter (24.2%) of Taylor’s yards across the whole season and it’s clear they’ve missed his explosive nature but if he finds form then they could trouble an Eagles rush defence missing Jordan Davis, and that was beat up and allowed 152 rushing yards. Taylor is price boosted to 7/2 with Sky alongside Miles Sanders to hit 75+ rushing yards which I think is worth backing. Sanders has averaged 78.8 rush YPG this season recording 93, 78 and 71 yards in the 3 games prior to their shock defeat. He may be leant on slightly more though as TE Dallas Goedert will miss games and WR AJ Brown came out of the game with a knock. A return to the run game would see Sanders profit, but also Jalen Hurts who has a line of only 42.5. The Colts do have the 10th best run defence but the Eagles already have the 6th best rushing offence (142.7 YPG) and if they have to lean on it more then I expect the Colts to eventually crumble and allow chunks of yards. The line is set at 6.5 here with the Eagles having beaten 6 of their 9 opponents by more than so far this year and I’d expect a strong response, however the injuries do concern me and to coin a football term “manager bounce” may help the Colts out.

Tips

• Taylor, Hurts & Sanders all to have 50+ rush yards @5/2

• Jalen Hurts 1+ rush TD @ Evens

New York Jets (6-3) @ New England Patriots (5-4)

In spite of their superior record the Jets are the outsiders to win this game priced at 6/4 and being given a 3.5 point handicap however just 3 weeks ago the Pats beat them for the 13th consecutive time. That 14th game was an overtime victory for the Jets, in fact you have to go back to 2011 (bare in mind these teams play each other at least twice a year) to find the last Jets win in normal time and even that was a playoff game so basically the Jets don’t beat the Pats in the regular season. Heading to Foxboro will make this even tougher with big question marks over Zach Wilson’s ability as an NFL level QB he’ll need to improve on his 3 interception game from 3 weeks ago. Wilson did manage to put up 355 yards on a Patriots defence that ranks 11th best for passing yards allowing just 204.3, however this came on 41 passing attempts of which he couldn’t even complete 50%. The biggest benefactor that game was Garrett Wilson who recorded 115 yards and caught 6/7 balls whilst TE Tyler Conklin scored 2 TDs on 6/10 for 79. Wilson made good on that form and put up 92 yards against the Bills with another impressive 8/9 receptions however Conklin recorded only 1 catch. Wilson has an over of just 53.5 which I think is far too low given his past two performances but I’d also favour him to record over 4.5 receptions as he is clearly establishing himself as his QBs favourite target. The main threat for the Pats will be Rhamondre Stevenson who is having a brilliant second season averaging 17.2 carries over his last 5 games for an average of 81.4 YPG. In the reverse game he recorded 71 rushing yards but he also went for a huge 72 receiving yards. Across his last 3 games he’s averaged 6 catches a game so taking him on the over for receptions is advised, although it’s yet to be priced. I don’t think you can ignore the head to head record so I’ll have to take the Pats here.

Tips

• Garrett Wilson over 53.5 receiving yards @10/11

• Stevenson over 2.5 or 3.5 receptions- Unpriced.

Los Angeles Rams (3-6) @ New Orleans Saints (3-7)

Few teams will have had such poor seasons after winning the Superbowl and with star WR Cooper Kupp now out for at least four games the Rams season is basically finished. The same would ordinarily be said about a team with a 3-7 record however the Saints are in the NFC South where the Buccs lead the division at 5-5 and so they could still try to land top spot and make the playoffs. The Saints are 3.5 point favourites in this matchup but they’re finding points hard to come by lately scoring just 23 in their last 3 games and they face a Rams defence that is conceding only 96.1 rush YPG and for the past two games the Saints leading rusher has only recorded 30 yards or less. Bad news for fans of Alvin Kamara who had put together a 4 game streak of 313 rushing yards and 268 receiving yards- a total of 581. Since then he’s only mustered 107 total yards and that impressive Rams run defence won’t offer easy yards. I hate backing unders but his poor form and the solid Rams run D means I fancy the under 65.5 rushing yards for him. The Rams are obviously without Kupp so I expect targets to be funnelled towards TE Tyler Higbee who recorded 8/8 catches last week. He’s been hard to trust with target numbers of 8, 1, 6, 2 and 10 but I think the Rams will have to use him so over 4.5 receptions looks good. Van Jefferson returns from injury and I like his explosive nature and presumably his increased targets makes his 43.5 receiving yards very tempting. I’d expect quite a poor game and can genuinely see the Rams tanking so I’d back the Saints.

Tips

• Higbee over 4.5 receptions @10/11

• Saints -3.5 @10/11

Detroit Lions (3-6) @ New York Giants (7-2)

The Giants bounced back from their second season loss and came off the bye with an easy win against the Texans. Running back Saquon Barkley capitalised on the worst run defence in the league by putting up 152 yards and that’s helped him to the 3rd most yards across the league in his last 3 games with an average of 105 YPG. This week he faces the second worst run defence (Lions concede 160.9 rush YPG) and is priced as short as 13/8 to run for 100+ yards and score a TD. Even at that price I think it represents value, for those who might worry about his TD element then he can be backed at 5/6 for over 95.5 yards which I really like. QB Daniel Jones only completed 13 passes but Darius Slayton made the most of his 4 targets, catching 3 and going for a total of 95 yards courtesy of a 54 yard catch. He may not get huge targets but with this sort of yardage production his over 40.5 receiving yards line looks very low. The fact the Lions allow the 6th most passing yards at 255.3 YPG suggests he could expose them and put up big numbers again. As for the Lions we should expect to see lots and lots of Amon Ra St Brown, the second year receiver, caught 10/11 for 119 yards last week accounting for 42% of Goff’s targets. This will be a trend going forward as the Lions adjust to life without the recently traded TJ Hockenson. Last season Brown accounted for 16.1% of targets when Hockenson played but that rose to 35% when he didn’t, with another year in the system and last week’s evidence proving this I think he could easily see double digit targets and catches. He is currently unpriced at the time of writing but a line of 4.5 would be incredible value and I’d even back him at 5.5. I think the Giants will be good value to win this game at home and the 3.5 handicap seems far too low, especially when priced at 21/20.

Tips

• Giants Money Line @8/13

• Saquon Barkley over 95.5 rushing yards @10/11

Other Tips

The NFL redzone market on Sky appeals to me again and I think that Barkley, Chubb and Fields all to score a TD is amazing value at 11/2. All three scored last week with Chubb leading the league in TDs, Fields on the best rushing form of any QB and Barkley playing a terrible Lions rushing defence whilst leading the league in rushing yards per game.