NFL Redzone: 6pm Previews and Tips

By Sam Cook

6PM NFL Previews

Minnesota Vikings (7-1) @ Buffalo Bills (6-2)

The Bills are coming off a shock loss to divisional rivals the Jets in which quarterback Josh Allen picked up an elbow injury as well. Despite that injury he managed to launch the ball 70 yards downfield to WR Gabe Davis, who failed to haul in the catch that would’ve put them in prime position to win the game. If Allen doesn’t play then former Vikings Case Keenum will deputise and that will significantly harm the Bills chances against a Vikings side that’s on a 6 game winning streak, their only loss coming to the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles. The Bills have been putting up 27.5 PPG but may have to resort to run and check down plays which will be good news for newly acquired RB Nyheim Hines who is brilliant at catches out of the backfield and well worth backing on his over for receptions if 3.5 or below (bookies slow to price with Allen injury concerns). The Vikings also may rely on their rush game with Dalvin Cook averaging 78.3 YPG in his last 3 including 2 TDs. This could continue as the Bills allowed 208 rushing yards to the Packers and 174 to the Jets in their last two games. For these reasons I’ll take Cook’s over (unpriced at time of writing), but I also think Adam Thielen at WR and TJ Hockenson at TE could be key players in this game. Lead target Jefferson (59/84 receptions) will see coverage from the returning pro bowl corner Tre White, leaving Thielen (38/57) & Hockenson (9/9 in his only Vikings game) to profit. Hockenson assimilated perfectly and an over on receptions seems inevitable, but Thielen has a minimum of 7 targets in his last 5 games recording an average of 53.8 YPG so his line will determine if this is a bet or not. I don’t feel confident calling the game given the injury uncertainty but I think it’s clear the Vikings won’t be 11/8 if Allen is confirmed out so some might see that as a risk worth taking to get some value.

Tips

• Nyheim Hines over 3.5 receptions- Unpriced at time of writing.

• Adam Thielen 50+ receiving yards- Unpriced at time of writing.

Detroit Lions (2-6) @ Chicago Bears (3-6)

Two of the sides who are languishing in the Vikings division face off here with the Lions coming off the back of only their second win of the season against a woeful directionless Packers side, and with the Bears having only won 1 in 6 despite clear improvements from 2nd year QB Justin Fields. The Ohio State man has broken out in his last 3 games despite only securing the win in one of them. He took the Dolphins to a 3 point game last week and broke the record for single game rushing yards by a QB with a huge 178 yards and a TD, whilst throwing for 3 TDs and no interceptions. That marked his second straight game without an interception as he had completed an impressive 73.9% of passes against a top five Cowboys defence including 2 TDs and a further rushing TD. In fact he’s on 3 straight games with a rushing TD and is 4th across the league for rushing yards over his last 3 averaging over 100 yards per game. New WR Chase Claypool saw plenty of targets last week (6) but recorded only 2 catches but another week of practice to form chemistry could be invaluable and playing against one of the worst pass defences in the league (Lions allow 268.5 pass YPG ranked 4th most & 29.3 PPG ranked most) I expect a strong performance. Over 36.5 receiving yards looks a great market to back at 5/6. Onto the Lions and they won despite a poor showing from Goff however Goff produced a similar result but with more yardage against Miami as to what Fields did. Only 2 weeks ago Goff took the Lions within 4 points of the Phins, recording 27/37 for 321 yards and a TD- maybe with the dynamism of Field’s legs he could have overseen a victory. Realistically the Lions won in spite of Goff last week with opposing QB Aaron Rodgers giving up 3 interceptions which granted great field position to the Lions. Jamaal Williams recorded 24 carries and I’d expect similar again this week given the Bears allow the 3rd most rush yards per game at 147.2, 2nd palace being occupied by the Lions at 148.8 YPG. Both teams will run the ball till the cows come home (Bears most rush YPG 195.4 & Lions 9th most 133.8 YPG) so don’t expect much by way of receptions.

Tips

• Fields, Williams & Montgomery all 50+ rushing yards @5/2

• Fields over 59.5 rushing yards @5/6

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)

The Jags returned from London to record their third victory against a Raiders side that bottled a 17-0 lead. There’s no point dressing the Jags 27-20 comeback win as being brilliant play by the Jags but simply a shocker from the Raiders, and the firing of HC Josh McDaniels suggests that Raider ownership thinks the same. Although it was a case of 75% Raiders bottling to 25% Jags performing well, that 25% has to be attributed to second year RB Travis Etienne. The decision to trade away James Robinson becomes more and more evident each time the Clemson man gets into the backfield with his 109 yards and 2 TD performance last week backing up his London game MVP performance in which he recorded 156 rushing yards and a TD. In fact Etienne ranks 2nd behind only Derrick Henry for rush yards over the last 3 games totalling 126.3 YPG average and 4 total TDs. What is more impressive is that he’s put these numbers up against relatively solid defences. The past two games have seen him average 26 carries which is unsustainable and the Jags will likely be behind in this game, thus have to pass a lot more but I still expect carries in the mid to high teens so backing his over for rush attempts (unpriced at time of writing) would be advised because the Chiefs have the 5th tightest run defence conceding only 102 rush YPG. The Jags main worry though won’t be scoring points it will be trying to stop Mahomes from putting up points with the Chiefs leading the league at an average of 30.4 PPG, a total that the Jags have only surpassed once all year. Mahomes also leads the league in passing yards across the last 3 games with an insane average of 402.3 and 2 TDs per game. His over 304.5 yards is almost 100 yards short of that average so I can’t ignore it as a bet, nor can I ignore Travis Kelce’s 104 YPG average in that same time period with his over 79.5 also looking too low. He hasn’t quite kept up with WR Juju Smith Schuster who’s notched the 3rd most yards across the last 3 with 325 and 2 TDs. If his line is as low as it’s atypically been this season, in the mid 50s/60s, then I think it’s NAP potential.

Tips

• Kelce & Smith Schuster both 80+ receiving yards @7/2

• Chiefs Win Money Line @1/4- I know this is incredibly short but to me they should be priced as low as 1/10 with Mahomes winning 80% of games at Arrowhead stadium. Handicap line at -8.5 is also worth backing but ¼ is too good to ignore.

Cleveland Browns (3-5) @ Miami Dolphins (6-3)

Two teams that rank in the top 10 for PPG (Browns 7th at 25 PPG & Phins 9th at 23.7 PPG) and also top 10 for points conceded per game (both tied on 24.9 PPG allowed) face off here in what the trends suggest should be a high scoring game. As a result the over has been set at 49.5 but I can easily see it landing with a market that I like being the Phins to win -3.5 and over 48.5 points being priced at 5/2. Miami are on a 3 game winning streak, Tua is fully fit and has put up passing stats of 261 yards at 60% for 1 TD in his return game, then 382 for 3 TDs at 80.6% (albeit against the Lions whose pass D is 4th worst) and last week he led the Phins to victory 35-32 with 302 yards at 70% for another 3 TDs. Considering the Bears had averaged only 188 yards to opposing QBs (6th fewest) prior to last week it shows how well Tua is performing having returned from concussion protocol. The main beneficiary of this form has been Tyreek Hill who leads the league in receiving across the last 3 games averaging 134.3 YPG, Hill is in fact on track for 2085 yards this season if he continues at his current rate. Averaging 8.66 catches per game over his last 3 and having cleared 140 yards 3 times in his last 4 he is an absolute menace and a line of 93.5 seems far too low. The Browns have a deceiving statline of only allowing an average of 208 passing YPG but having played Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, an out of form Lamar for 120 yards and Joe Burrow without Chase they actually haven’t faced a high powered offence. On the occasion that they did, Mike Williams put up 134 yards, and I expect Hill or his running mate Waddle (93 YPG & 3 TDs across his last 3 games) to exceed this. In regard to the Browns it’s pretty simple- give the ball to Nick Chubb and let him do his thing. He has actually slowed down of late averaging 82.7 YPG and scoring 3 TDs in his last 3 (crazy that this is actually a regression) but with a full week of recovery in his legs I think he’s primed to challenge a Phins run D that allowed 252 rushing yards last week including 178 to Justin Fields.

Tips

• Dolphins to win -3.5 points and over 48.5 points @5/2

• Hill & Waddle 60+ receiving yards each and Chubb & Mostert 60+ rushing yards each @6/1 - Play around with Hill, Waddle & Chubb all to land their overs across different bet builders as I expect solid performances again from all 3. DPJ would be my pick to impress in the Browns WR room (70+ in 4/5 and averaging 69.4 YPG whilst going 23/32)

Houston Texans (1-1-6) @ New York Giants (6-2)

The worst team in football visit a New York side that had their winning run capped at only 4 2 weeks ago as the Giants went down 27-13 to the Seahawks. Fresh off their bye I think they’re justified favourites to win this game and to win it handily. The receiver room has been a problem for them all season but Darius Slayton has stepped up in the past two games recording 8 catches on 12 targets for an average of 62 yards per game. He had also put up 6/7 for 79 yards against the Packers who allow the second fewest pass YPG so he’s a man to watch. The Giants primary weapon though is RB Saquon Barkley who has averaged 97.4 rush YPG and is coming up against the worst run defence in the league. The Texans have allowed a massive 180.6 YPG rushing this season with the second worst team ranking 148.8, they’re not just the worst, they are historically bad. Granted they have played Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs and Travis Etienne but if we remove those individual player performances from their yards allowed record they still rank 9th worst and would allow 126.5 YPG across 8 games- note I’m still including the Titans, Raiders & Jags other rushers and therefore still including those teams/games. As a result I expect Barkley, and maybe even QB Daniel Jones (45.4 YPG), to run riot so their lines of 93.5 and 33.5 are certainly worth backing. For the Texans they may only have their RB to rely on, rookie Dameon Pierce has been very impressive this season and has totalled 88.7 YPG across his last 3. They’ll have to rely on him as they may be without star WR Brandin Cooks who expressed dismay at not being traded and was subsequently left out of the squad last week with the team citing “personal problems”. If these “personal problems” continue then Pierce will probably take another shed load of carries as he racked up 27 last week. Over 18.5 looks incredibly low given he’s averaged 22 across his last 4.

Tips

• Giants to win -5.5 @Evens

• Barkley & Pierce 80+ rushing yards each @15/8- similar to the last game play with variations of Barkley & Pierce overs and also TDs- Sky have both 75+ and a TD @5s

New Orleans Saints (3-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)

The Saints are coming off a Monday Night Football loss whereas the Steelers should be fresh having been on bye giving them time to recharge for what they’ll hope is a more successful second half of the season than first. Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin has an impressive record of never coaching his team to a record below .500 however a loss here would leave the Steelers in a position where a losing record would be almost inevitable. In their way are the Saints who score well ranking top 10 with 23.6 PPG however they’re so erratic defensively, conceding 42, then 0, then 27 last week. They’ve allowed the 4th most PPG at 25.2 but the Steelers rank 2nd lowest for scoring with only 15 PPG so it’s unclear whether the Steelers will step it up or if the Saints will recreate a shutout win as they did against the Raiders. For the Steelers Kenny Pickett, the rookie QB, has struggled massively with ball security allowing 8 interceptions in only 5 games but he faces a side that’s recorded the second fewest interceptions with only 2 all season which creates another confusing statline in this game. What’s likely is plenty of pass attempts and completions with Pickett averaging 25.5 completions in his last 4 and more specifically 28.5 across his last two. The Steelers have had to abandon the run game due to their poor offensive line and the lack of explosiveness from RB Najee Harris who’s averaging only 3.3 YPC and has dropped to only 13.5 carries per game from his average of 18 carries last season. For these reasons I’d take Pickett over 21.5 completions at 5/6 and Diontae Johnson will take the lion's share of those averaging 9.5 targets per game. Rookie WRs will dominate this game though with George Pickens for the Steelers and Chris Olave for the Saints being the pick of this years receiving class. Pickens had an off night against the Eagles but prior to that he’d recorded 21/28 catches with a minimum of 6 targets per game so over 3.5 receptions feels incredibly generous from the bookmakers. Meanwhile Olave ranks 9th for yards across the whole league tallying an average of 6 catches a game across his last 3 for 229 yards and the bookies again seem to be sleeping on him with a low over line of 62.5. One last player to mention is Alvin Kamara who has been dominant of late receiving and running- it’s hard to predict whether he’ll dominate on the ground or via the air so instead I’ll take him across both.

Tips

• Kamara over 104.5 rush/receiving yards @10/11

• Kenny Pickett over 21.5 completions @10/11

Denver Broncos (3-5) @ Tennessee Titans (5-3)

The Denver Broncos ended a 4 game losing streak last time out with a victory against the Jaguars when in London and for the first half of that game Russell Wilson looked like a man who had never played football at all. They managed to string together a running game and stumbled over the line and their bye week will have given them a chance to recuperate, but they look set to return to losing ways when facing a Titans team that had recorded 5 wins in a row before their overtime defeat to the Chiefs last week. The Broncos have the 2nd best defence by way of points conceded per game allowing only 16.5 PPG and they boast the best passing defence allowing only 165.8 YPG. However the Titans don’t pass the ball at all, they’ve had rookie QB Malik Willis playing and he’s totalled just 135 passing yards in his two starts with only 26 attempts. Instead it will once again be the Derrick Henry show, the powerful RB leads the league in yards over his last three recording an average of 154 yards and 4 TDs total. This isn’t just a case of one huge breakout rush, he’s carried the ball 79 times (12 more than anyone else) whilst averaging 5.8 YPC (2nd most among RBs). It wouldn't be a surprise to see Henry surpass 150 yards again as Travis Etienne put up 156 against the Broncos last time out and Henry is far more bruising. The bookies have set his line at 107.5 which may be the highest I’ve ever seen and yet I still think it’s worth taking the over on. Even with Tannehill at QB, Henry had been averaging 22.3 carries per game and has averaged 24.5 with Willis so it’s fair to assume he’s good for 20 carries at least and potentially more given the Broncos elite pass defence. He’s averaged 6.8 YPC in his last two as well so 20 carries would equate to well over 130 yards making Henry over 107.5 a bet I really like. For the Broncos I expect a heavy passing scheme as the Titans allow 275.6 pass YPG and therefore I think Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy will be popular bets. However the man I’d be backing is TE Greg Dulcich who’s become a favourite of Wilson’s of late. In only 3 games he’s recorded 12 catches on 17 targets seeing an increase in yards from 44 to 51 to 87 in his most recent game. Over 43.5 yards would be the bet for me because over 4.5 receptions seems a little high.

Tips

• Henry 100+ rushing yards and a TD @6/5

• Both teams to score a rushing TD @11/10

In terms of an overall accumulator, I’ll be composing a results/points bet and then a player lines/props bet as well, both of which will be shared on Behind the Odds twitter. I like the look of some of the Sky Bet redzone markets and Chubb, Henry & Etienne all to score a TD at a price of 5/1 looks the standout for me. I also think that Henry, Barkley and Etienne 2+ TDs each at 150s is way overpriced so i'll be having a small go on that as well!