NFL Redzone: 6pm Previews and Tips
- Sam Cook
- Nov 5, 2022
- 13 min read
By Sam Cook
Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-4)
The Chargers come off their bye week with a trip from West to East to play the Falcons but they’re not much healthier than when they entered the bye. Star WR Keenan Allen has struggled with injury all season but he’s been joined by number 2 WR Mike Williams on the Did Not Practice list all week. Running back Austin Ekeler who has recorded TDs in each of his last 4 has also been limited but will likely play. Quarterback Justin Herbert (287 YPG ranked 3rd) will need Ekeler to get the passing attack going- he’s got a ridiculous stat line of 53 catches on 61 targets for 357 yards which is more than both CMC and Alvin Kamara, the league's elite pass catching RBs. With the injury problems potentially meaning a receiving corps of just veteran TE Gerald Everett, 2nd year Josh Palmer and journeyman Deandre Carter I think Ekeler will be leant on massively in the passing game. ***At the time of writing the bookies haven’t priced this- consequently the price may have gone when it does become available.*** The Falcons will be looking for back to back wins after they won in overtime to divisional rivals the Panthers 37-34 in a classic which saw the Panthers miss an extra point in the last seconds of normal time to win it. With RB Patterson still injured the running game has been shared between rookies Huntley and Allgeier in terms of carries however Huntley has far exceeded Allgeier for yards lately. Huntley has 38 carries for 172 over his last three in contrast to Allgeiers 45 carries for only 140 yards. Again the bookies are being cautious but my bets would be Huntley for yards and Allgeier for rush attempts. Kyle Pitts is also being utilised more now with a season high 9 targets last week. Both teams are top 12 for scoring (Falcons 6th 25 PPG & Chargers 11th 23.4 PPG) but the most notable stat is the Falcons defence allowing 306.9 YPG, the only team over 300. Even with diminished receiving options Herbert could explode and I think Ekeler will profit for catches and Palmer for yards, with my old favourite Zander Horvath a tiny punt for a TD.
Tip
Each team to score 20+ points @Evens
Miami Dolphins (5-3) @ Chicago Bears (3-5)
The Dolphins snapped their 3 game losing streak with 2 consecutive wins and look to keep on rolling against a Bears side that is clearly looking to the future after trading away two key defensive pieces in Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith. They did however add Chase Claypool and the explosive WR will be key to keeping the development of Justin Fields going. The 2nd year QB has taken clear strides in his past two leading the Bears to victory against the Pats before a 3 total TD game against Dallas scoring 29 in a loss (most points Dallas have conceded all year). It’s expected Claypool will go straight into the lineup but there are huge uncertainties over him, however his presence may well distract from Darnell Mooney who has been slowly returning to the standards set last year. Mooney has recorded 15 catches on 22 targets for 191 yards in stark contrast to his first 3 games that saw combined stat lines of 4/11 for 25 yards. Fields will try to profit against a Miami side allowing 262.1 pass YPG (7th most) and so Mooney/Claypool will complement their running duo of Montgomery and Herbert who have put up 182 yards and 236 in their past 3 respectively despite Herbert having 6 fewer carries (39 to 45). Markets for yards on Herbert (over 37.5) and rush attempts for DMont (not priced yet) are worth checking. Miami have Tua back in full flow and that’s been great news for Tyreek Hill who has the most receiving yards in the league over the last 3 with 437 at a monstrous 14 targets a game, hauling in 10.3 per game. The only thing he hasn't provided is a TD but his WR partner Jaylen Waddle has 2 of them whilst also recording an average of 6/8 for 108 yards in those 3 games. They do come up against the 5th tightest pass defence (188 YPG allowed) but their trade for Jeff Wilson at running back could pay dividends straight away as the Bears have the 2nd worst rushing yards allowed at 156 per game. Both RBs for the Bears are worth looking at, both WRs for Miami too but my tip is Mooney over 3.5 receptions.
Tip
Mooney over 3.5 receptions @5/6
Bonus tip for those with a Sky account- Hill & Waddle 100+ receiving yards each. Happened in 2 of the last 3 and at odds of 10/1 it’s too good to ignore even if the Bears have a strong passing defence.
Carolina Panthers (2-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-4)
The Panthers head to Ohio after a comedic loss to the Falcons in overtime. Kicker Eddie Pineiro missed an extra point and then a field goal that would have seen them go top of the NFC South on head to head record. In the two games since trading McCaffrey they’ve put up 821 yards which is far beyond their season average of only 260 yards prior to life without CMC. Donta Foreman has stepped up, as he did last year when deputising for Derrick Henry in Tennessee, and helped to contribute to an offence that’s rushed for the 4th most yards over the last two games. Foreman will be key again this week playing against a Bengals side allowing 125.6 rush YPG and that’s coming off a Monday Night Football matchup in which they allowed 172 rushing yards. Coincidentally the Panthers have rushed for 171 yards on average in these past two. DJ Moore is also experiencing success again with PJ Walker at QB, the WR has recorded 221 yards and 13 catches seeing 10 or more targets on both occasions. An over of 64.5 receiving yards looks very achievable. The Bengals come in with Joe Burrows having put up the 2nd most passing yards in his last 3, his 1013 yards at a completion of 76.3% is incredible and equates to 337.7 YPG. 8 TDs to 1 INT is also indicative of the form he’s in but he’ll be without Jamarr Chase again and that hindered him on Monday recording only 232 passing yards. Joe Mixon saw more targets than he had all season and the running back looks very tempting at over 3.5 receptions. The Bengals coming off a short week versus the transformed Panthers offence just don’t look like 7.5 point favourites, especially if the Panthers defence can replicate the 2 sacks and 2 interceptions from last week (playing against the 2nd most sacked QB in football) and so Panthers +7.5 is a bet for me.
Tips
Panthers +7.5 @10/11
Mixon over 3.5 receptions @5/6 (Worth changing the line to 4.5 for Bet Builders)
Panthers +7.5 and under 44.5 Points @7/4- this would be a small bet but I think the Panthers best chance of victory comes if they slow that passing attack and avoid a shootout. Plenty of rushing will slow the clock and minimise points in my opinion.
Green Bay Packers (3-5) @ Detroit Lions (1-6)
Two teams with the biggest losing streaks in the league face off here. It could have been predictable that the Lions would lose 5 in a row but nobody predicted the Packers losing 4 in a row, especially after going 3-1 in their first 4 games. Life without Davante Adams has been tough for Aaron Rodgers who is only averaging 225 passing yards a game with his set of rookie receivers. Romeo Doubs has been the most targeted of those catching 30 of the 49 for 296 yards and 3 TDs and clocked 62 yards in the loss to the Bills. The other key feature on Sunday will be Robert Tonyan who’s averaged 6.5 targets in each of his last 4 games catching 5 of those. The yardage isn’t necessarily there for him though so backing receptions which are marketed at only 3.5. The same can be said for RB Aaron Jones who’s seen an uptick in targets but the over being set at 3.5 and priced at 4/7 compared to Tonyan’s 11/10 makes me lean towards backing the tight end instead. The Lions allow the 6th most passing YPG (266.4), the 3rd most rushing yards (154.9) and allow a league high 32.1 PPG so this should be a bounce back game for the Packers. The Lions may concede huge points but they also put plenty on the board scoring 30 or more on 3 occasions including 45 against the Seahawks. They’ve slowed down of late but still managed 27 against the Dolphins with the return of Amon Ra St Brown helping massively. He’ll need to continue his form after the trade of team receiving yard leader TJ Hockenson to the Vikings. When St Brown plays more than half of the game and doesn’t leave via injury he’s averaged 80.5 YPG and recorded 8 catches a game which is massive. Jamaal Williams looks set to lead the backfield again, with Swift still an injury concern, and he’ll capitalise on a Packers side allowing 141.3 rush YPG (4th most) and looks set for a 6th consecutive 50 yard game, with hopes and a likelihood he might reach 100 yards for the second time this season. Take his overs on account of volume of rushes (still unpriced).
Tips
Robert Tonyan over 3.5 receptions @11/10
Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)
Jacksonville return stateside after their yearly venture to London and are coming off the back of a very poor loss to the Broncos. Lawrence failed to perform on the international stage and was upstaged by his former Clemson team mate Travis Etienne. The running back put up 156 yards on the ground averaging a huge 6.5 YPC, more impressive is the fact that Etienne over his last 3 games has recorded 356 yards at an even bigger 7.4 YPC whilst also scoring 2 TDs. With the trade of James Robinson the Jags offence is almost solely on Etienne at the moment it seems, at least until Lawrence rediscovers his confidence. His line at 76.5 looks far too low for a man playing in such an explosive manner as he has been of late, moreover the Raiders have allowed over 100 yards to running backs in their past 3 including Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill both recording over 60 yards last week. The other player I think is undervalued by the bookies for the Jags is TE Evan Engram- last week we won backing him for over 3.5 receptions, which is something he’s done in his last 4 games, and I think it’s worth betting again. The Raiders rank 30th for fantasy football points allowed to tight ends with 5.1 receptions, 50.1 yards and 0.9 TDs a game. Engram is only 4/7 this week for over 3.5 so changing the line to 4.5 for bet builders could be an option. For the Raiders they’ve been without their star TE Darren Waller and he’s uncertain to play again. Instead they’ve found form in Josh Jacobs who prior to last week had put up 444 yards in 3 games. The Saints managed to stifle him but the Jags have allowed over 1 TD per game to running backs and in the last 3 games where they faced a good to elite running back (Saquon, Dameon Pierce, Miles Sanders) they’ve allowed an average of 114 yards to those specific running backs. They also let Daniel Jones rush for 110 yards so I think a rejuvenated Josh Jacobs will clear his over 77.5 yards.
Tips
Etienne & Jacobs both 80+ rushing yards @3/1
Indianapolis Colts (3-1-4) @ New England Patriots (4-4)
Both of these teams have tried out their rookie QBs however the Colts are forced to stick with Sam Ehlinger who has been given the starting job in part due to Matt Ryan’s poor form but also on account of his arm injury. Ehlinger showed sparks last week against the Commanders completing 17/23 for 201 yards. He failed to lead a game winning drive but in his defence WR Michael Pittman Jr dropped an easy pass that would have given them a first down and got them close to field goal range with over 20 seconds left. The Colts will rely on Pittman this week as starting RB Jonothan Taylor is injured and second string Nyheim Hines has been traded. Pittman has 10 targets a game and has been catching over 7 of those including 7/9 last week so his over 4.5 receptions at 5/6 looks incredibly good value, as far as odds on shots can be considered value. On the note of RBs being out it’s worth checking Deon Jackson out who has averaged 106 scrimmage yards when playing over 50% of snaps which he’ll do again this weekend as lead back. Against the Jags he caught an incredible 10/10 for 79 yards whilst also rushing for 42 yards whereas the week prior he rushed for 62 and caught 4/4 for 29. Over 55.5 rushing yards looks good but over for receptions and yards (not priced at time of writing) could be amazing value as he hasn't dropped a pass yet. The Pats have reverted back to Mac Jones despite Zappe clearly looking the better player but he's fortunate that he’s facing a Colts team who have only made 4 interceptions all season. Jakobi Meyers will be his main WR target but Rhamondre Stevenson has been hauling in the catches from out of the backfield with 19/20 catches in his last 3 including 7 and 8 in his last 2 games. In these past two he’s gone for 59 and 72 receiving yards so his over at 23.5 looks close to NAP material. If you can back receptions and the line is 3.5 or lower I think it's also worth piling in on, the same being applicable to Deon Jackon.
Tips
Rhamondre Stevenson 23.5+ receiving yards @5/6
Deon Jackson receiving/receptions overs when priced
Buffalo Bills (6-1) @ New York Jets (5-3)
The first preview game between teams with winning records and the Bills have their high powered offence to thank, scoring the 2nd most points per game (29) and recording the most total yardage (430.6) and passing yards (307.7) per game. Not only is the offence of the Superbowl favourites elite, their defence allows the fewest points per game (14) and the 3rd fewest yards (298.1). They’re boosted by the return of all pro cornerback Tre White who will look to intercept the sloppy Zach Wilson. The 2nd year has a league low completion percentage of 54.9% and is passing for only 209.6 YPG. With the injury to Breece Hall he’s been forced to pass more and that resulted in 3 interceptions to only 2 TDs last week. Facing the defence with the most interceptions per game (11 in 7) he’ll need to be near perfect to guide the Jets to victory. Running back Michael Carter will be key, averaging over 9 carries a game, but also freshly acquired James Robinson is an unknown quantity in this offence but a return to his rookie seasons form would ignite the Jets who have a below par running attack. The Bills are also boosted by a newly acquired running back and Nyheim Hines will be integrated straight away and likely used on passing downs so his over receptions bet will be on interest. The key players though are Diggs and Davis- both feature in the top 10 for yards over the past 3 games (Diggs 3rd with 358 & Davis 7th with 280) and have both scored 3 TDs a piece. They do face a tough Jets passing defence (10th fewest yards allowed 203.4 PG) but they haven't faced Josh Allen this season. In his last 4 games against the Jets he has 6 TDs to 1 INT he has averaged 306 yards which is almost in line with his average per game this year of 314 YPG. He’s also rushed for 2 TDs and 39.75 YPG in those past 4 suggesting a 5th consecutive win this season and against the Jets.
Tip
Allen & Diggs both to score a TD @9/2
Tiny stakes RAB with Sky- Diggs & Davis 1+ TD each, Allen 300+ passing yards & 2+ pass TDs, Davis 50+ yards, Diggs 80+ yards & under 44.5 points. @80/1. I think all of these player stats are achievable, whether they all coincide is another question, as for the under on the points I see the Bills getting to such a big lead that Allen will be rested in the last quarter and as such the score will remain low- something like 31-10.
Minnesota Vikings (6-1) @ Washington Commanders (4-4)
The final 6PM game and both sides are in strong form, the Commanders looking for a 4th win on the bounce to get close in their hugely competitive NFC East, and the Vikings looking to solidify their lead in the NFC North and remain in touch with the Eagles for the number 1 seed. The Commanders have been playing with Taylor Heinicke instead of Wentz, due to injury initially but he’s seized the job with 2 wins in 2 very close games (23-21 & 17-16). His 279 yards against the Colts including a game winning drive and it's his connection Terry McClaurin is looking electric. The Ohio State alum has recorded 186 yards on 11 catches for a TD in those 2 matches and did so against 2 top 10 passing defences. Facing off against a Vikings side that allow 294 YPG (3rd most) to receivers this year, although only 9 TDs. Number 1 WRs have profited massively with Hopkins (12/13 for 159 TD) and Hill/Waddle (12/15 for 177 & 6/10 for 129) putting up huge numbers in their last two games. McClaurin’s over is only 66.5 for yards and 4.5 for receptions, both of which I will be backing. For the Vikings they introduce TE Hockenson from the Lions and he’ll certainly be used this week but potentially only as a distraction. That will leave Justin Jefferson more free to run havoc and add to his 359 yards across his last 3 games (2nd most in the league behind Hill). He averaged 8 catches a game in that period making over 6.5 at 11/10 looking of particular interest.
Tips
Jefferson & McClaurin both 80+ receiving yards @5/2
I’ll be forming an accumulator using player lines and a separate acca for team/game lines and both of these will be shared on my new twitter account @NFL_SamUK some time Sunday afternoon. My last thought on the 8 games I’ve previewed above, and the two games I’ll briefly note below, would be that the Sky TD treble boost in their featured American Football section looks incredibly good and I will be backing both.
Diggs, Ekeler & Dalvin Cook all to score a TD @6/1
Kupp, Walker & Hopkins all to score a TD @8/1
The 2 other evening games see the Seahawks visit the Cardinals which I think will be a points fest (over set at 49.5) and see WR stud Hopkins (262 in his last 2) for the Cards and RB rookie star Kenneth Walker (315 rushing yards in his last 3) for the Hawks put some serious numbers up. Geno Smith 250+ passing, Hopkins 80+ receiving & Walker 80+ rushing @9/2.
The last two Superbowl winners also face off but with both teams in very poor form (both have won just 1 in their last 4) it’s hard to predict an outcome. Instead take the tried and trusted Cooper Kupp and Mike Evans both to record 80+ receiving yards @11/4. Kupp has 79, 80, 125 and 122 yards in his last four whilst Evans has 123, 96 and 81 in three of his last four. These won’t be bets I’m placing as I haven’t seriously checked the games but for those with a watching interest they’re what I’d recommend after a 2 minute glance.
Thank you for reading, and good luck to anyone having a bet!
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