By Sam Cook
New York Giants (6 seed) @ Minnesota Vikings (3 seed)
It’s very rare that you see a side with 13 wins as the three seed and even more rare that they’re viewed as an undeserving or lucky team to have achieved that feat but that’s what the Vikings are in most fan and media journalists eyes.
I actually really like the Vikings and think they’re worthy of their seeding and unfortunate to not have seeded higher but they play incredibly entertaining football and if their defence could manage to click at the same time as their offence clicking then they’d be Superbowl favourites in my mind.
The problem for them has been that defence mainly though as they rank joint third-worst for most points allowed at a huge 25.1 and that figure creeps up to 26 points allowed per game across their last three ranking 28th. Even at home, where this game will be played, they allow 25.2 points per game meaning they’re better defensively on the road.
They face an incredibly well-coached Giants side with Brian Daboll looking a shoe-in for Coach of the year, particularly considering it’s his first ever Head Coaching job having left the Bills in the off-season. Daboll has taken an average team with a star RB and a workable QB and made them a playoff team.
He’s also done that with what must be the worst WR room in football but he’s brought from the Bills a shining light and that man is Isaiah Hodgins who has been a breakout star in the latter half of the season.
Debuting in week 11 he’s gone on to record 29 or more yards in every game but an impressive catch rate of 37 from 48 which puts him above 75%. In recent weeks those targets have been at a base line of four and a peak of 12 leaving his five-game average for targets, catches and yards at a very solid 6.5, 5 and 50 yards. He’s also recorded four TDs in that stretch and the standout performance among those was his eight catch and 89 yard performance (with a TD of course) against tonight’s opponents the Vikings.
All that being said you’re expecting his over/under line for receiving yards and receptions to have been set at 55 yards and five catches right? No, he represents perhaps the best value of the weekend with lines of 43.5 and 3.5, both which I think he should easily surpass.
Other targets for Daniel Jones, who in his last five games excluding Minnesota averaged 176.5 yards at one TD per game, include Darius Slayton who could be carrying a knock and is incredibly hard to predict but also Richie James who has been putting in some impressive figures of late.
Against the Vikings just three weeks ago he caught eight of 11 for 90 yards and that performance was sandwiched by a total of 11 catches from 15 for 118 yards and a TD. That’s the second player who had an incredibly good performance against Minnesota in spite of Jones’ poor average yards at only 176.5 and that would be because even Danny Dimes and his noodle arm managed to humiliate the Vikings.
In the Christmas Eve match-up, just three weeks ago, Jones put up just his second 300-yard game in the last three seasons as he threw for 334 yards at over 71% completion rate against this exact Vikings defence. Now whilst it’s insanely hard to predict who will be the beneficiaries, other than the consistent Hodgins, it’s definitely worth accounting for this because it will likely mean the game becomes a shoot-out with Jones and Cousins going at it and the points soaring.
The over/under for points set by the bookies also suggests this with the line set around the 48 point mark, for reference the last match-up saw 51 points and 28 of those came in the fourth quarter so this game has true shoot-out potential.
Somehow I’ve failed to mention the Giants main weapon and that’s obviously Saquon Barkley who managed a TD in the aforementioned match-up as well as 84 rush yards and then a huge eight catches for 49 receiving yards.
His line for rush and then receiving yards are set at 72.5 and 23.5 yards respectively making the receiving yards less than half of what he managed last time. Certainly another value bet it would seem, as could be his counterpart Dalvin Cook who totalled 64 rush yards in this fixture on Christmas Eve and finished the season with the sixth most rushing yards at just under 1200. Over 90.5 rush and receiving yards is a line of interest for me.
As for the Vikings, they’re led by the man who can go from MVP level to whatever American Football’s equivalent of Sunday League in just a matter of seconds. Kirk Cousins has for the most part had a brilliant year and he historically is a lot better at home but his prime-time record is horrific and whilst this game isn’t prime-time as such it is in a stand-alone slot for the nation and the world to watch.
Cousins couldn’t replicate Jones’ yard total in the matchup between the pair as he recorded just 299 yards however three TDs and zero interceptions marked a very solid performance. Since then though he’s had one stinker game and one very accomplished game so predicting which Kirk turns up is tough.
Those games saw a one TD and three INT hammering against the Packers as he threw for just 205 yards and then a conservative win over the Bears where he went an impressive 17/20 for one TD but again the lowly total of 225 yards.
Both of those matchups were away from Minnesota though and prior to the Giants game he played in the incredible comeback win over the Colts, the largest in NFL history, where he recorded an insane 460 yards and four TDs. Put simply, predicting Cousins is harder than predicting most things but one man who has been a constant since linking up with him is Tight-End TJ Hockenson.
The Hock actually had his worst game as a Viking in that matchup catching three of nine for 33 yards but since joining from division rivals Detroit he’s averaged almost six catches per game on over nine targets for 55 yards. His best game during that period, you ask? The win over today’s opponents, New York. where he had a field day with 13 catches from 16 for 109 yards and two TDs. His lines are set at 48.5 yards and 4.5 catches whilst a brace of TDs comes in at 14/1. Hammer the overs, maybe have a little punt on the TDs.
For the final segment of this game, and as reward for reading this far, we get to the main event and that’s Justin Jefferson. He’s undisputedly the league’s best wide receiver at the moment and almost every stat will back that up as well.
The LSU star has 7.5 catches per game, almost 11 targets per game and an incredible average of 106 yards per game. TDs are the only stat that let him down but he still has eight of those which ranks him tied 11th across the whole league and in the top 10 for receivers considering Kittle and Kelce rank third and second with 11 and 12.
Just the one TD in the previous game against the Giants although it came with 12 catches on 16 targets for a huge 133 yards so I’m favouring the over for this game which sits at 92.5 yards. Over 7.5 catches is a huge temptation as well given that it’s priced above evens at 23/20 with BinkBet but the TD bet is my preferred bet that’s priced above evens as it comes in at 11/10 for anytime TD.
Whilst the Vikings defence is horrific and the Giants also have the superior coaching staff, something that proved vital last night with the Chargers finding a way to lose against the Jags courtesy of Brandon Staley and his shocking coaching, I actually side with the bookies and favour the Vikings.
Their offence will make any game a competitive one and whilst the Giants defence of late isn’t awful, ranking 12th and 11th for points conceded and yards conceded in their last three, it isn’t historically good ranking 25th on the season for yards allowed at a huge 358.2 yards per game.
As such the Vikings are set to win in my eyes in a high scoring game by a scoreline of 31-28 with Kirk Cousins putting on his big boy boots and securing the win late on.
Tips
Hodgins over yards and receptions
Jefferson over 92.5 yards
Hockenson over yards and receptions
Barkley over 23.5 receiving yards
Over 48 points
Vikings Win
Sunday Evening Bet Builder
Bills and Vikings both to win, Allen and Cousins both 300+ passing yards, Knox and Hockenson both to score a TD, James and Dalvin Cook to combine for 150 total rush and receiving yards and Diggs and Jefferson both 80+ receiving yards.
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