By Sam Cook
Miami Dolphins (7 seed) @ Buffalo Bills (2 seed)
Following on from the first two games of the playoffs where the underdogs went one from two, the same as myself, we now get a slate of four games to look forward to kicking off with the AFC East divisional matchup between the Dolphins and the Bills.
The Bills are unlucky in a sense that they’re having to play this week, their inability to secure their status as the number one seed, put on hold due to the horrific incident involving their defensive back Damar Hamlin.
Realistically home field advantage is insignificant on the grand scale of things considering the situation Hamlin was in but he cheered on the Bills in their victory over the Pats last week and will hope for the same this week.
That’s what the bookmakers are expecting with the handicap line being set a huge 13.5 points in favour of the home team Bills. Miami are almost as large underdogs as Seattle were last night and unfortunately, for my tips at least, we saw how that went.
A Bills’ win offers no real value unless you play the handicap lines but with the genuine possibility that this could be a blowout to the point that Bills’ stars get rested and therefore Miami have some form of second-half resurgence I don’t want to play the lines.
Instead I’ll back a man who has been incredibly hard to predict this year and that is Gabe Davis. His playoff performances last year were capped with the incredible four TD performance against Kansas City in the incredible game at Arrowhead and whilst he has scored two TDs in his last five he has only broken 50 yards once.
A huge ten targets came his way during the week 18 matchup with the Pats and the one 50-yard performance he had recently did came against Miami so I’m taking him to find that form again and land over 48.5 receiving yards at 17/20 with BinkBet.
Stefon Diggs saw 20 targets in the two Miami matchups this season, hauling in 12 of those for 134 yards. Allen clearly sees that Diggs can be used to expose this Miam defence that rank 27th on the season for passing yards allowed with 234.8 yards per game.
Expect plenty of targets for the former Minnesota man who has seen 51 targets in his five playoff games as a Bill including an impressive 311 yards in the 2020 post-season. Pair those big game tendencies with an average of 89 yards per game then I think he is another who will land his over, currently set at 78.5 yards.
For Miami it’s still unclear who their quarterback will be so analysing their pass offence is tough but with weapons like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle then they’re hard to discount. The most recent matchup saw Hill record an impressive nine catches but for just 69 yards whilst Waddle only hauled in three passes but for a huge 114 yards. The pair also added a TD a piece.
In week two when the Phins won Hill was kept quiet with just 33 yards on two catches but Waddle went off again with 102 yards on only four receptions. Waddle seems to be a yard monster against the Bills but the receptions aren’t as reliable as Hill’s it seems so my play would be Waddle over 46.5 with BinkBet which I think is incredible value and something to target.
Finishing off with both side’s run games and for the Bills it’s something that is always laughed at but considering their average of 139.5 rush yards per game which ranks eighth in the league, it’s actually a strong asset.
For much of the season it was just the Josh Allen throw, the star QB finishing the regular season with 762 rush yards and seven TDs but of late Devin SIngletary and James Cook have formed a useful tandem with the rookie Cook having surpassed 50 yards in every game with double digit carries.
That includes a 99 yard and a TD performance against Chicago just two weeks back and his line of over 37.5 is incredibly tempting to take for a player who is averaging a huge 5.7 yards per carry. In theory that’s five rushes at his average carry rate and he gets us to land the over. With the expectation that the Bills will run out to a heavy lead and could therefore rush late on I’m definitely siding with over 37.5 at 17/20 on BinkBet.
As for the Phins it’s running back by committee as always with a McDaniels coached offence meaning it’s hard to work out who will perform but of late it has been Wilson outcarrying Mostert but with a lesser average. Both players generally find themselves with comparable yardage stats - going back from week 18 it’s been; W 72 M 71, W 45 M 29, W 37 M 45 however the recent reverse fixture saw Wilson out and Mostert capitalise with a huge 136 yards.
Sadly though, Mostert is trending towards being out seemingly with a thumb injury which has propelled Wilson’s line to 59.5 yards, something I’m not comfortable with. Instead I’d rather target the over 20.5 for Ahmed who will operate as his number two.
Tips
Bills double result i.e. half-time/full-time
Cook over 37.5 rushing yards
Diggs over 78.5 receiving yards
Ahmed over 20.5 rushing yards
Wild Prediction - Bills by 14 points or more, Allen over 300 passing yards and one or more rushing TD, Dawson Knox to score a TD and James Cook 60 rush/receiving yards.
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