By Sam Cook
Week 17 NFL 6pm Previews
The NFL season is winding down for some teams and ramping up for those with playoff ambitions and as such betting becomes incredibly difficult trying to second guess if a team is trying to win or just happy to lose.
Rather than previewing every single game in the 6pm slot, the games where a bet stands out or teams have something to play for will be the focus with a small acca including all nine 6pm games at the summary.
Chicago Bears (3-12) @ Detroit Lions (7-8)
The Lions still have a shot at the playoffs on account of the weak NFC this year and they’re currently one game out of the playoffs so there’s plenty to play for. Detroit are priced at 4/9 or 5.5 point favourites and I think given the situation there’s value in that because Chicago truly have nothing to play for other than to spoil the party. On an eight game losing streak if the Bears were to lose this and their week 18 game and the Houston Texans beat either of their divisional opponents, Jacksonville Jaguars (W17) or Indianapolis Colts (W18), then the Bears secure the number one pick in the draft. It pays for Chicago to lose this game effectively. Pair that with Jared Goff playing at a genuinely elite level at the moment, 312.3 YPG for seven TDs and zero INTs in his last three games, and I think this should be easy for the Lions. Although it is the Lions and they never make it easy conceding three TDs per game in their last three at an average of 25.6 PPG. Take the over on Amon-Ra St Brown who averages 91.2 yards in his last five with an average of eight catches per game. In his three games against Chicago he’s caught 20 balls for 212 yards and I think there’s value on over 82.5 yards but prefer the evens price on over 7.5 catches. Justin Fields had a slow day against the Bills but prior to that game he boasted 576 yards in his last five games rushing, and an average of 100.75 yards per game with seven TDs in his last eight games making his over 66.5 yards look incredibly favourable.
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8) @ Houston Texans (2-1-12)
The Jags have taken control of the AFC South and they face a team who it would genuinely benefit themselves to lose which makes me really like the Jags in a double with Detroit based on their situations. Priced at 4/7 with a 3.5 handicap I can see the Jags covering easily as the Texans experiment and plan for the future. Trevor Lawrence, similar to Goff, is playing at an elite level averaging 305 YPG in his last three alongside seven TDs and one INT and the beneficiary has been tight-end Evan Engram. The former Giant has exploded in those last three games with a total of 337 yards and an impressive 26 catches. That average of over 112 yards and just under nine catches per game make his line of over 47.5 receiving yards the NAP of the weekend. Over the last four weeks the Texans have allowed 6.25 receptions per game to tight-ends so Engram should easily cover. Houston’s biggest weakness though is their run defence, ranking 29th in fantasy points allowed over the last four weeks allowing four TDs and league high average of 128.25 rush YPG. They’ve also let running backs average 38.75 receiving YPG or 5.5 receptions which is great news for Travis Etienne. The Clemson product averaged 55 rush YPG in his last five but his last two games saw him tally 103 and 83 yards on the ground. He also saw three targets in each of those two games and went for 53 yards so the rush/receiving totals market of 87.5 is one I like a lot. In the request-a-bet market I really fancy Lawrence 2+ passing TDs, Engram 1+ receiving and Etienne 1+ rushing at 6/1 in what I think will be a blowout win. The Lions/Jags double pays a tasty 6/5.
Denver Broncos (4-11) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-3)
Just a quick point of note here that the Chiefs will absolutely tear apart the Broncos. The Bills play the Bengals on Monday night and so the Chiefs will be hoping to ramp up the pressure in the race for the number one seed with a convincing victory here. Whilst the Broncos boast a very solid defence generally the Chiefs are really cooking right now, unlike Russ. 1/8 is a nothing price so you’ve got to find the stats instead and for me the standout is the Broncos ranking 28th for fantasy points allowed to RBs in the last four weeks. Allowing just under 90 yards per game to RBs but importantly one TD a game on the ground and one every other game in the passing game. The passing game also sees them allow 54.5 receiving yards to RBs so I really like McKinnon for receptions and Pacheco for rushing yards with the lines on both being backable and then the TD double for the pair priced nicely at 4/1.
Indianapolis Colts (4-1-10) @ New York Giants (8-1-6)
At present the Giants feature in the playoffs and they face a battered and bruised Indy side that has lost five on the spin. I’d even be tempted to throw the Giants in with the Jags/Lions bet as they’re priced at 2/5 with a handicap of 5.5. This is another game with a brief outlook and the outlook is the Colts ranked 32nd against the run for fantasy points in the last four. That’s on account of an incredible seven TDs allowed to running backs so the Saquon Barkley any time bet is 4/7 and whilst not backable as a single is a very solid leg of an acca. The Saquon brace and hattrick are priced at 3/1 and 12/1 and I wouldn’t be against either, even if they are quite short in price. One man who has been on fire for the Giants lately is Isaiah Hodgins with the former Buffalo Bill reunited with his offensive coordinator and current Giants head coach, Brian Daboll. With three TDs in his last four and a true breakout game last week with eight catches and 89 yards he’s priced nicely at 9/4 anytime TD and the double with Barkley pays 9/2.
They’re the only games I’m going to preview on their own with so many other games being in a situation of guess work surrounding injuries, rest and also the will to win but I still do have passing thoughts on those other games.
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Cardinals @ Falcons - truly terrible game between two terrible teams who will want a fresh start in 2023, I’d like to argue that this will be low scoring but at times when two poor teams come together it can explode. My one pick in this game would beTyler Allgeier to rush for over 50 yards. There’s no line for him yet but the rookie has hit 50 or more yards in his last five games with his last two surpassing the mark easily at 139 and 74. Prior to that he’d rushed for 52, 54 and 55 so hitting the half-century seems to be in his wheelhouse.
Saints @ Eagles - injuries make this game incredibly hard to predict, as does Philly’s almost secured status as number one seed and the Saints status as having nothing to play for. Devonta Smith has been going off lately with over 100 yards in three of his last four and an average over that period of 101.25 yards per game including five catches on three occasions and eight last week against the Cowboys. Again the bookies haven’t priced anything up but Smith generally has an over/under in the mid 60s and I’d go as far as to take him at 75 yards this week.
Dolphins @ Patriots- At present the Phins are in the seventh and final playoff spot and with victory they’d likely guarantee that whilst also preventing division rivals the Pats from making the playoffs. Tua won’t play due to concussion so it’s hard to predict what the passing game will be like. In the game against the Vikings where Bridgewater played 72% of the passing plays Tyreek went for a huge 177 and Waddle 129 yards with Teddy B throwing for a total of 329 yards, however the Pats are far more sound defensively and some of those yards from the receivers could have been courtesy of rookie Skylar Thompson. Hill can burn anyone and so I do think the WRs will still perform but this is a game that screams the under in my opinion, and not one I’ll be betting on myself, that said the under is 40.5 and Sky have the price boost of Hill and Waddle both 80+ yards at 13/2 which is tempting.
Panthers @ Buccs - The Panthers could still spring a surprise and make the playoffs and after an impressive win over the Lions it isn’t to be discounted. When the end of the season comes the Buccs trust one man and that’s playoff Lenny. Fournette has begun to receive more touches back from rookie Rachaad White and I’d expect similar in this game following his 20 carries last week. Over 42.5 rushing yards for Fournette seems close to NAP potential given that he’s surpassed that in four of his last five with the one occasion he didn’t being the game against the 49ers when the Buccs got blown out and as such Fournette only got four carries.
Browns @ Commanders- Washington are fighting to stay in the playoffs and the Browns are fighting to try and get Deshaun Watson to actually click with the QB not having worked out so far. He’s even resorted to using his legs more, something that head coach Kevin Stefanski has alluded to and so I think Watson anytime rushing TD priced at 4/1 is maybe worth a poke. As for the Commanders, Wentz is confirmed as returning which makes the Terry McClaurin form invalid seen as Wentz seemingly doesn’t utilise him properly. Instead rookie RB Brian Robinson is my pick for this game. Unpriced at the moment he’s carried the ball over 20 times in two of his last three games and an average of almost 18 times a game in his last five, which has equated to 81 yards per game. Anything around the 60 yards or less mark for his line is worth taking the over.
Treble- Lions, Jags, Giants @ 9/4 (bet with BinkBet for £10 in free bets)
TD Treble - Saquon, McKinnon, Etienne @ 5.6/1
Long-shot TD Treble (Singles advised)- Hodgins (NYG), Watson (CLE), Gray (KC)
Overs Acca- St Brown over 7.5 receptions, Engram over 47.5 receiving, Allgeier over 50 rush (unpriced), Pacheco over 65.5 rush, Fournette over 42.5 rush, Saquon over 78.5 rush @ approximately 40/1 assuming Allgeier is priced 4/5
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