By Sam Cook
New York Giants (3-1) @ Green Bay Packers (3-1)
The NFL international series resumes this week and the party continues in football's new UK home at the Spurs Stadium. The move from the national stadium to North London's modern wonder, which features purpose built NFL pitch has been a decision that's been received with mixed feelings. As aesthetically pleasing as the stadium is and with almost no bad seats in the house you’d expect rave reviews from UK NFL fans. However the limited capacity of only 62500 compared to the 90000 seater icon that is Wembley means that fewer fans are able to physically attend matches. This seems a backwards step when the UK thirst for NFL is at an all time high, only 125000 lucky fans will have the chance to attend as opposed to the atypical 180000. This thirst proved at an all time high this year with ticket selling sites seeing queues of 400000 within minutes of tickets being released. One reason for this major demand could be in turn to the hugely iconic teams that grace our shores this weekend.
The Giants are a well established franchise and can always attract new fans with the tourist trap that is the big city lights of New York. By contrast the Packers hail from Green Bay and are the only major US sports team not based in a major metropolitan area. Despite this their fan base is immense and the fact they’ve been forced to give up a home game at their legendary Lambeau Field is a surprise to many US Packers fans, but to the joy of UK and European based fans. Both teams have won the big one four times apiece and both within the past 12 years. The Packers went all the way in 2010 and the Giants beat Brady’s Pats a year later. Since then the teams have had contrasting fortunes. The Giants have failed to even win their NFC East division since 2011 but set off well at 3-1 this season under first year Head Coach Bryan Daboll. The Packers on the other hand seem to be the nearly men every year but have they wasted the best years of their back to back MVP QB Aaron Rodgers? Since 2011 the Green Bay outfit have won their NFC North division 7 times and made the playoffs in 8 of those 10 seasons. They also start the season 3-1 which is a reward for the UK fans as this is the first ever London meeting between two teams with a winning record.
The Giants boast the best rushing attack in the league and stud running back Saquon Barkley being healthy is a major contributor to their 770 yards through 4 games (highest the league has seen through 4 games since 1956). Even more impressive is that this run dominance isn't simply down to volume of run plays. They actually sit 2nd in yards per carry at 5.8 behind the Lions who average 5.9. Expect lots of run plays on Sunday as QB Daniel Jones carries an injury designation and also because the Packers sit tied 8th worst for yards per carry allowed at 5.0. A big factor in this is the offseason loss of Zadarius Smith and also the fact that historically they do offer up a high yards per carry rating (3rd highest in 2021). This all points to Penn State alumni Barkley increasing his season high 463 rushing yards so another 100 yard ground game could well be on the cards. His 21 carries per game lead the league as well so target any props that set the line for his over/under rushes at below 20. With the Giants testing out former Bills 5th rounder Jake Fromm as a potential solution to their QB crisis this weekend you should expect heavy reliance upon Saquon. Jones is trending in the right direction but be sure to check team news early Sunday morning as betting lines will swing heavily depending on his status. As such the Packers D may play simply to stop the run and therefore its best to take the over/under on rush attempts as opposed to yards in case they do manage to bottle up the explosive back.
Onto the NFC North reigning champs in the Packers who have stumbled to a 3-1 record after losing their first game to divisional rivals the Vikings. Two of these victories came in one score games, the latter of which went to overtime against a Bailey Zappe led Patriots, which suggests it's proving difficult for the Packers to replace star wideout Davante Adams (2927 yards and 29 receiving TDs in his last two seasons as a Packer) who left for the infamous strip of Las Vegas. Adams has since put up 290 yards with his new team, a total that far surpasses any Packer wideout. The rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have shown bright sparks but are both guilty of dropping walk-in TDs in their first four NFL games. Despite these notorious drops Rodgers has remained efficient holding the 4th highest completion percentage (69%) of QBs to attempt more than 100 passes, however this comes at a middling and fairly average 935 yards. Bad news for Rodgers is that the Giants have only allowed 765 air yards this season which ranks them 7th best. Instead reliance may be on their two headed back tandem of Jones and Dillon. Despite boasting the best rushing attack the Giants unfortunately are the 28th ranked rush defence allowing 564 yards at a tick of 5.1 yards per carry (29th best). Expect Rodgers to rely on the experience of his backs and for Aaron Jones to improve on his total of 327 ground yards which place him 7th in the rushing charts. He also excels at yards per carry ranking second taking the ball 6.8 yards per carry however this is cited as being 62% rush yards over his expected (calculated dependant on run defence schemes etc) but when targeting a poor Giants rush D it's fair to expect another explosive performance.
This should certainly be a strong matchup between two winning teams but unless Saquon Barkley can put the Giants completely on his back it should be an easy Green Bay win and the betting odds suggest as such with Green Bay as 8.5 point favourites. An over/under of 41.5 seems low however Green Bay have only surpassed this line once in their 4 games so far. Similarly the Giants have yet to hit 41.5 with their season opener being their highest scoring affair at 41 points.
Tips
Green Bay -8.5
Saquon Barkley over 19.5 rushing attempts
Under 41.5 points
Jones, Dillon and Barkley all over 50 rushing yards
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