The Ultimate Guide to the NFC East
The NFC East is often the division that fans can look at and see plenty of optimism pre season but ultimately watch fizzle out into failure, Dallas Cowboys fans will certainly attest to that. However in 2022 we did see a serious contender emerge from the East, with the Eagles being the standout side in the NFC.
Led by Jalen Hurts and boosted by the acquisition of Wide Receiver AJ Brown the Eagles marched through the NFC and made it all the way to the Super Bowl, looking to repeat the feat of their 2017 team in which Nick Foles’ ‘Philly Philly’ special helped the Eagles to a first ever Super Bowl.
It looked that they would add a second given that they entered the locker rooms with a lead of 24-14 and rival QB Patrick Mahomes seemingly on one leg, but the magic man turned it around and helped the Chiefs win yet another Super Bowl.
Will the Eagles run riot in the East again or will it finally be the Cowboys season? Here’s your Ultimate Guide to the NFC East from a betting perspective with all odds taken from The Pools, unless otherwise specified.
Philadelphia Eagles
● 2022 Divisional Finish - 1st
● 2022 Playoff Finish - Super Bowl Runners Up
● 2023 First Round Draft Pick/s - DT, Jalen Carter (Georgia) and LB, Nolan Smith (Georgia)
● Divisional Odds - 8/11
● Super Bowl Odds - 7/1
There’s so much positive stuff to talk about with the Eagles but their X Factor all starts at the QB position, as it often does, with Jalen Hurts having firmly established himself in the top tier of QBs during the 2022 season. Hurts is a dual threat QB despite many labelling him as just a rusher, his 3,701 passing yards in 2022 (ranked 10th) would highlight that. He even out-passed the back-to-back reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers and threw an impressive 304 yards in the Super Bowl, 122 more than MVP Patrick Mahomes.
Whilst his passing is excellent it’s his run game that does transform him into an elite threat, as exemplified with three rushing TDs in that Super Bowl for a total of 70 yards on his 15 carries. That marked the most rushing yards by a QB in a Super Bowl and added to his regular season stats of 760 yards for 13 TDs. That ranked him fourth, just two yards behind Josh Allen, four yards behind Lamar Jackson however almost 400 yards behind Justin Fields who broke almost every record in the books.
A team can’t just win games via a rushing QB though, as exemplified by Fields’ Bears and their record of just 3 wins and 14 losses. The weapons surrounding Hurts are elite with both AJ Brown (4th with 1,496) and DeVonta Smith (9th with 1,196) ranking inside the top ten for most receiving yards in 2022 whilst Dallas Goedert chipped in with 702 (7th most), at an average of 58.5 Yards Per Game (YPG) which ranked him second behind only Travis Kelce. A running back room for 2023 that includes D’Andre Swift, whom they acquired via trade, Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott is also something to be wary of.
Where the Eagles lost the Super Bowl though, and ironically one of their biggest strengths, is actually their defence. The Eagles ranked second in 2022 for the fewest yards conceded (301.5 compared to San Francisco’s 300.6 YPG), but they limited passing yards to just 179.8 YPG which was the best in the league. The addition of pass rusher Jalen Carter, who many deemed the best player in the draft if not for attitude problems, just means that the strong get stronger. Eagles to rout the NFC East and go on a major revenge tour, book it!
Best Bets
● Eagles to win the NFC East - 8/11 - it might not be the biggest price but it’s not for a single, get this in as part of an accumulator and sleep safe knowing you’ve got extreme value and a very safe lock in your bet slip. The Eagles won 14 of their 17 games in the 2022 season, losing two of their last three as they knew their safe status as number one seeds. One of those games that they effectively gave up was against the Cowboys, who otherwise would have been an extra game back. It’s also worth noting that the Eagles have the easiest Strength of Schedule (metric that measures the previous year’s win rates of teams you face) in the NFC East, and the 10th best in the NFL. Their line of over 11.5 wins at 19/20 is certainly worth backing.
● Jalen Hurts most Rushing TDs (Regular Season) - 14/1 - Hurts clocked up 13 in 2022 but he had to give up 11 others to Miles Sanders, who now finds himself in Carolina. League leader from 2022 Jamaal Williams has less of a role in New Orleans in a crowded RB Room, whilst Derek Henry and Austin Ekeler both registered 13 alongside Hurts. A minor step up in his goal line carries and this is a very strong chance.
Dallas Cowboys
● 2022 Divisional Finish - 2nd
● 2022 Playoff Finish - Lost Divisional Round
● 2023 First Round Pick/s - DT, Mazi Smith (Michigan)
● Divisional Odds - 15/8
● Super Bowl Odds - 14/1
It’s hard to see where the Cowboys have improved enough for them to be in the same conversation as the Eagles when it comes to winning the NFC East. There’s no doubt that they’re a very solid 10 win team but beyond that it’s hard to have faith. The loss of Ezekiel Elliot is probably being understated in that whilst he certainly isn’t the RB of his early NFL years, he still accounted for 12 rushing TDs in 2022. If all of those touches go towards Tony Pollard then they’ll have a very banged up RB1 with a backup option of just late round rookie Deuce Vaughan? Elliot took 231 carries in 2022 compared to Pollard’s 193. Derek Henry and Josh Jacobs only took 349 and 340 last year, to expect Pollard to be the sole RB and take on Elliot’s volume is an example of the poor planning that has hindered the Cowboys for years.
Whilst their RB room is something that this punter doesn’t like, the receiving corps is perhaps the best it’s been since the departure of Amari Cooper or even Dez Bryant. Ceedee Lamb is a legit top ten receiver ranking sixth in 2022 with an average of 79.9 YPG. The addition of Brandin Cooks is brilliant off season work, the speedy wideout finally with a team that can utilise his talents after being stuck with the Texans for three seasons. He suffered a down year in 2022 but still amassed 2,886 yards during his three year stint there that saw the QB play of DeShaun Watson (one year) before Davis Mills took the lead.
Much comes down to Dak Prescott though who has shown elite traits in three and four game spells but never across a season. With new Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer having a run heavy focus it begs the question of how will that fit Dak Prescott, particularly with the news that the Cowboys have traded for notorious running QB (when healthy) Trey Lance. All told there are more questions than answers with the Cowboys and a fourth place finish in the division could be a shock punt worth taking on.
Best Bets
● Cowboys to finish 3rd in the NFC East - 7/2 - The Eagles are the team to beat but the Giants in their second season under Bryan Daboll, with legit receiving weapons now, could be the team to take second here. The maths doesn’t add up surrounding the carries in the RB room at Dallas and whilst Brandin Cooks is a great addition, he won’t be enough to help Dallas retain second place.
● Micah Parsons Defensive Player of the Year - 6/1 - Parsons is a do-it-all defensive weapon, he gets to the QB, he bats down passes and he rag dolls runners. He won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, with some calls for him to win the outright DPOY, but now in his third season he could finally break beyond the 15 plus sacks total and take the crown of Defensive Player of the Year.
New York Giants
● 2022 Divisional Finish - 3rd
● 2022 Playoff Finish - Lost Divisional Round
● 2023 First Round Pick/s - CB, Deonte Banks (Maryland)
● Divisional Odds - 8/1
● Super Bowl Odds - 50/1
The Giants exceeded expectations in 2022 and that helped Bryan Daboll win the coach of the year award as they forced their way into the playoffs from third spot in the NFC East. Build on the running threat of both RB Saquon Barkley and QB Daniel Jones there’s plenty to be excited about as a Giants fan.
Firstly, Saquon signed which was paramount for any success for the team given his 1,312 rushing yards on almost 300 carries. He also notched up 10 rushing TDs whilst adding 338 receiving yards as well. For a period he was nigh on unplayable, registering 931 rushing yards in his first nine games never once dipping below 50 yards whilst surpassing 70 in eight of those games and 100 in four. If he brings that element to the 2023 season then the Giants have a brilliant chance at stealing second place and making back to back playoff appearances for the first time since 2008, during the glory days of Eli Manning.
A major problem for QB Daniel Jones has been the lack of receiving options. Jones threw for just 3,205 yards (15th most) however he was safe when he did pass, clocking just five interceptions which was the fewest among all players with 400 or more attempts. As such Jones took to the ground plenty and ranked fifth for most rushing yards at 702, but he now has an elite TE in Darren Waller who should easily command 120 targets. The emergence of Isaiah Hodgins helped and should he continue he can forge a great role behind the experience of Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell, Sterling Shepard with rookie Jalin Hyatt also added to the pack.
Best Bets
● Giants to make the playoffs - 8/5 - They did it last year, they’ve improved, this writer believes Dallas have got worse, all those factors point to this being an incredible value at over 6/4.
● Darren Waller over 60.5 receptions - 10/11 (Sky Bet) - At his peak in Oakland/Vegas Waller saw 197 receptions in just two seasons. Walking into a team where there is no clear number one WR and no incumbent TE means this target looks incredibly low. Fitness has been an issue but he’s reportedly firing on all cylinders and if that’s the case then this should sail in.
Washington Commanders
● 2022 Divisional Finish - 4th
● 2022 Playoff Finish - N/A
● 2023 First Round Pick/s - CB, Emmanuel Forbes (Mississippi State)
● Divisional Odds - 12/1
● Super Bowl Odds - 66/1
Sadly the reality is that winning football games revolved around good QB play, if not elite QB play. What the Commanders have is very unclear QB play with second year Sam Howell currently pencilled in as the starter having had one game in 2022. That game saw Howell go 11/19 for 169 yards with a TD and an INT a piece. How that screams starting QB is beyond this writer, and most people in the football world. Thankfully they do have renowned and established back up Jacoby Brissett but even that screams that the Commanders are content with another wasted season and a fourth place finish in the division.
News that star WR Terry McLaurin is currently dealing with a toe injury that hasn’t seemingly had a timeline put on it, but any games missed will be critical for the Commanders seen as ‘Scary Terry’ is a key piece in their offence. He registered 77 (T-25th) catches last year at an average of 15.5 (5th) YPC for 1,191 yards (10th), so any time without him will send the Commanders into a spiral. Rookie Jahan Dotson did impress last year but he’s far from able to lead a team, something he’d have to do if Scary Terry does miss time.
The RB room at the Commanders is an interesting one as well with Antonio Gibson getting the same pre-season hype as always, that is usually followed by a disappointing season. The RB is heading into his fourth season, off the back of his worst so far (596 rush yards & 353 receiving yards) with just five total TDs, compared to 15 and 14 in his first two seasons. Brian Robinson could step up instead though after clocking 797 yards in 12 games last season after being shot.
Best Bets
● Sam Howell under 3,200.5 Passing Yards - 10/11 - Howell simply hasn’t shown enough for it to be viable that he averages the 188 YPG that he would need across all 17 games for this to come in. There’s a strong chance he loses the job, and even if he does play all 17 games then that average isn’t nearly as low as it seems. For context Kenny Pickett, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson all failed to hit that mark last year. As did Brock Purdy (152.7 YPG) who many touted as being a breakout player. Just missing one game makes the average 200, Daniel Jones only average 200.3 and is far superior.
● Commanders to finish 4th - 8/13 - Unfortunately they’re just not good enough in a division of strong or strengthening teams.
Divisional Bets
● Eagles/Giants Straight Forecast - 13/2
● Eagles NFC Winner - 11/4
● Most Pass Yards in Division Dak Prescott - 10/11 (Sky Bet)
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