NFC Championship
San Francisco 49ers (2 seed) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1 seed)
The road to the Superbowl will go through Philadelphia as it did in 2018 when the Eagles claimed the title, in that NFC Championship game they defeated the Minnesota Vikings by a huge scoreline of 38-7 but there’s slim chance of such a wide margin this time as they face arguably the best defence in the league.
The 49ers have built their season on a super efficient offence in terms of making plays after the catch, it certainly helps when you have two of the most elusive WRs in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, a top three TE in George Kittle and then most versatile weapon in the NFL in CMC who they traded for mid-season. An offence like that could operate with the last pick in the NFL draft you’d say, and that’s exactly what’s happened with Mr Irrelevant Brock Purdy having led the 49ers to their past eight wins. The fact that their defence is loaded is another angle that’s taken them this far and something that sets this game up to be so special.
The 49ers Defence
Whilst their offence has the fancy gadget pieces and explosive plays San Fran are undoubtedly a team that is built defence first and the fact they rank two whole points better than the second best defence (the Jets somehow???) highlights this. Conceding just 16.4 points per game across the whole season you’d expect them to start conceding slightly more now in the playoffs given the calibre of opposition. Nope. Their last three games has seen them concede just 16 PPG including just 12 to the Cowboys who had ranked fourth on the year for points scored at 26.8.
Put simply their defence is elite at preventing the points but where can it be targeted in terms of via the air or the ground? Well they rank 2nd for the fewest rush yards conceded per game coming in at just 79 YPG on the ground on the season and 80.3 YPG in their last three. They’re one of just three teams to concede less than 100 YPG across the whole season (Tennessee and Baltimore) so whilst the Eagles have a strong rush attack it looks like it could be nullified. As for their pass defence that’s what the Eagles will have to take advantage of, the 49ers rank 19th so just below average in allowing 222.3 YPG. However it’s a passing defence that is stepping up clutch with that average dropping to 209.3 across their last three games. They also close out games better than most, conceding just 4 points on average in the fourth quarter of games, ranking third best, meaning that the Eagles will have to hope they’re not requiring a comeback.
The Eagles Defence
So whilst the 49ers can be targeted via the pass but are generally just an elite defence, we come onto the Eagles and analyse their strengths and weaknesses in defence. Whilst not as impressive as San Fran over the course of the season, averaging 19.5 PPG total (6th best), they do actually have better defensive form of late as they’ve allowed just 14.3 PPG in their last three including allowing just seven points to the Giants, but more impressively just 227 total yards against a Giants team that had registered 31, 38 and 24 points in their last three games against opponents other than the Eagles. Their yardage totals for those games averaged out to 423.33, whereas in the two recent games against the Eagles (Divisional Round & Week 18) they scored just 23 points total and an average of 255.5 yards. Put simply the Eagles defence is hotting up at the right time.
It makes sense that the number one seed would have a good defence, just like the 49ers did, but what can be exposed against the Eagles? They rank bang average, 16th, for rushing yards allowed at 121.4 YPG which could be an issue against the likes of CMC, and is certainly an area Kyle Shanahan will target. As for their pass defence they’re the best in the league allowing just 175.9 YPG and just 149.3 in their last three games. Playing at Lincoln Financial Field, as they do in this game, that home-field advantage equates to just over eight yards as their passing defiance improves to allow just 167.3 YPG. The Eagles also lead the league in sack percentage by a margin, getting the QB on his back an incredible 11.4% of times with the next best being 8.31% for the Patriots. Whatever odds Brock Purdy is to be sacked multiple times, take advantage of them. A young rookie QB can easily panic in this type of game and against such a dominant D-Line. In his last three Purdy has been sacked 2.3 times per game, an over 2.5 line to back would be tempting.
Defensive Summary
Both sides have elite defences which isn’t a surprise really given this stage of the season but for the 49ers the strength is stopping the run, ranking incredibly high in all metrics against the ground game. Their pass defence isn’t terrible but it’s there to be attacked certainly. As for the Eagles they’re the complete opposite, they’re average at defending the run but their pass defence ranks best in the league in terms of yards allowed, and more so their defensive line gets to work more efficiently than anyone else creating a sack once every nine snaps.
The 49ers Offence
QB
Purdy has averaged 231.75 passing YPG in his eight games with the side which is actually very reflective of their whole season passing offence in which they rank 13th with 230.5 pass YPG. During those eight games he’s thrown an interception every other game on average with four in total. Facing the Eagles is different to any other side though given their dominant pass defence so if we take stats from the games in which he’s faced top ten pass defences in terms of passing YPG allowed we get a three game sample size. Although not a huge sample size it still tells a story that when Purdy faced Washington (fourth), Dallas (eighth) and Tampa Bay (ninth) he threw for 234, 214 and 185 yards. Only Tampa held him below their season-long average which is impressive, but his average in those three games is 211 yards, suggesting he could struggle to reach 200 yards against the staunch Eagles defence. Philly also averaged one INT per game, something that could worry 49ers fans.
WR & TE
The star man is Deebo Samuel and he was arguably one of the best offensive weapons in 2021 however he’s seen a much needed reduction in usage this year and he’s heated up during the playoffs. The regular season saw him catch at least two balls every single game but he only recorded six or more on four occasions. He averaged just over four catches and just under 50 yards per game however in the last two playoff games he’s caught six and four balls for 133 and 45 yards respectively whilst also rushing for a total of 43 yards.
Instead the main pass catcher has become the ever reliable George Kittle with the TE highlighting that he truly is a special player.The last five weeks of the regular season saw him make 4.5 catches per game but only twice did he surpass 30 yards. Stats of 28, 23, 29 were boosted by 93 and 120 however a total of seven TDs highlighted the importance of his catches.Tack on his five targets, five catches and 95 yards against Dallas and you see why he’s so efficient and dominant. With Purdy being a young inexperienced QB he should use Kittle as a safety blanket, hit the over on receptions and back him for a TD but hold off on the yards.
The final piece of the puzzle in the San Fran WR room is where the yards come from and that’s the explosive Brandon Aiyuk who is arguably the best route runner in football.The speedster surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in the regular season and tallied 78 catches and eight TDs. The playoffs have seen him add a further five catches for 99 yards and whilst he’s incredibly hard to predict he’s passed 60 yards on nine occasions this season and I think he could be the yards bet for this team. Against the three other top 10 defences that we referenced for Purdy (Washington, Dallas and Tampa Bay), Aiyuk recorded 5/7 for 81, 2/4 for 26 and 2/3 for 57 and a TD. The variance is huge but the boom potential outweighs the bust in my opinion.
RBs
It’s the CMC show here realistically even if he and Elijiah Mitchell have recorded almost the same number of carries in the off-season. For context CMC has rushed 25 times for 154 yards and a TD whilst Mitchell has rushed 23 times for just 53 yards. Mitchell could be a bet on rush attempts but realistically CMC is our focus. As dominant as the RB is he’s also a boom or bust prospect given that he has more games in the 30-49 yard rushing total (seven) than he does 50+ yard performances (six). Granted of those six there are four 100+ yard games and a 94 yard showing but he can be hard to predict. One element where I really like him is in the passing game though with the checkdown pass always an option and he’s caught two balls per game minimum and has gone for six or more in six of his 13 games for the 49ers. Given the Eagles having a bigger weakness in the running game I think this could be one of his boom rushing games but I’d still expect him to record that over 5.5 line in the receiving market. A CMC and Kittle TD double also looks very tasty.
The Eagles Offence
QB
Jalen Hurts is a weapon and he’s a weapon you have to account for in the passing and the running game with the talented QB arguably the hardest QB to defend against in the league at the moment given his ability to hurt you in multiple ways/ His regular season stats finished at 3,701 passing yards with 22 TDs to six INTs and then 760 rushing yards with 13 TDs as well, an incredible amount. His one post-season game saw the passing take a backseat with just 154 for two TDs and then 34 rush yards for a TD as well, the Giants beating themselves in their inability to stop Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell. He’s averaged 246.7 passing YPG and then a hugely impressive 50.6 yards on the ground as well. He could be the key to breaking the 49ers tough rushing defence, by utilising the play-action and taking non designed runs he can make that defence panic and sacrifice their scheme in an attempt to stop him. It’s hard to predict therefore if he’ll be the beneficiary of his tricky running or whether it will be the RBs instead, however expect the passing game to still be dominant, over 250 yards incoming.
WRs & TE
The Eagles sacrificed their first round draft pick and more to get AJ Brown but given the way he’s transformed their team and in particular Hurts it was more than worth it. The big physical receiver will be a matchup nightmare for the 49ers and he finished the season in some of the best form you’ll ever see. Across the last six games of the season Brown recorded three 100+ yard games, two games in the 90s and then a 70-yard one TD performance too. The averages for that six-game spell, in which he played playoff opposition three times, were just under six catches per game (5.83) for 110.8 YPG including an incredible 181 yard game. He also tallied four TDs during that period so against a passing defence that’s not as dominant as their run D is then he’s sure to be a problem. Quite often the man who receives double coverage he isn’t always the most efficient (88/145 on the season) but when he does make plays they go for yards with an average of 17 yards per catch and 88 YPG over the course of the season. Anything below 85+ for his over is certainly worth backing.
The man who could benefit from Brown’s double coverage is Devonta Smith with the wiry receiver coming into his own this season, reaching almost 1,200 yards on the season but catching more balls on less targets than Brown, 95 of 136 for 1,196. He also saw the season out with insane six game form, highlighting the form the Eagles offence is on in general, and in the same six-game period his stats were: 6.5 catches per game for 97.8 yards and four TDs. Despite his lower average he actually had four 100+ yard games and caught four more passes than Brown. Put simply, if you don’t like Brown’s lines then just take Smith’s which will almost certainly be lower and just as, if not more, likely to land. I’ll be taking the overs on both.
Dallas Goedert is the last man in this three-pronged passing attack and his return since injury has coincided with the Eagles finishing the season on fire and the two aforementioned WRs recording such dominant spells. Goedert was only there for the last three of those games but during that period he caught 12 of 16 for an average of 52.6 yards per game. His over has typically always been in the mid-40s and if it’s there again then it wants to be backed. The Eagles have been transitioning to pass-first on the back-half of the season and I think all three weapons can cover.
RBs
Whilst I’ve just surmised that the Eagles have been transitioning into a pass-first team it was actually their run game that trampled over the Giants, and they were the beneficiary of a terrible Giants defensive gameplan. The rushing stats for that post-season win were Sanders 17 attempts for 90 yards and Gainwell with an incredible 12 for 112 and a TD. Both Hurts and Scott (34 & 32 yards) also scored a rushing TD, but that’s something San Fran are generally very tight on. The RBs are almost a non-factor in the passing game but the shift to a two-headed attack, or three if you add Hurts in, has seen both players able to run harder and put in high performances. Gainwell is only just coming into his own, just 240 rush yards all regular season, yet a monster 112 last week. The trends suggest he isn’t one to back based on just one performance but if his line is incredibly low then he’s worth a second look. Sanders is the man to support instead though having recorded three 100+ yard games but generally clocking into the 40-60 range, anything above that isn’t worth backing given his tendency to average just 4.9 yards per carry.
Prediction
I think the Eagles win this on account of the home advantage. Nick Sirianni is a ballsy head coach and the Eagles fans get incredibly loud which will trouble Purdy massively. The blitz will come all night and Purdy will have to excessively rely on his RBs and given the fact CMC can’t take 20 carries a game it’ll mean the introduction of Mitchell who averages such few yards per carry. Passes will be plenty, but plenty of short dump-offs to the likes of CMC and Kittle. Whilst they are masters at getting yards after catch, with Kittle so often being the man who creates the space via his blocking, the Eagles secondary is simply too good. My score prediction would be the Eagles 28-24.
Tips
Hurts 250+ passing and 1 rushing TD
Smith over 5.5 receptions or over 65 yards
Goedert 50+ receiving yards
Purdy to be sacked over 2.5 times
Purdy to throw an INT
CMC & Kittle over 5.5 catches
Kittle TD
CMC TD
Goedert TD
Eagles win, over 49.5 points, Smith 65+ yards, Goedert 50+ yards, Hurts 250+ yards, Purdy 1+ interception, Kittle 6+ catches - 50/1 Bet Victor
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