By Sam Cook
Washington Commanders (4-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (8-0)
The Eagles return to the prime time TV slot after beating the Texans handily on Thursday Night Football last week. That means they come into this divisional matchup with a rest advantage, as if they needed any more advantages being the only unbeaten team left and running clear in the NFC. The Commanders had been on a winning streak of their own but it was limited to just 3 when the Vikings finished them off with a last minute field goal. All signs point to the Eagles moving to 9-0 with the bookies making them 1/6 favourites and giving them a 10.5 head start on the handicap. The Eagles last two games saw them as 1/8 and 1/6 favourites and they covered a 10.5 point handicap on both occasions so the trends suggest they’ll continue this. However Taylor Heinicke has led the Commanders to 2 wins in his 3 games with all 3 games being within one score, never mind 10.5 points so we’ll break down all the stats and try to find some value in the markets.
It’s worth looking at how the Commanders can get a foothold in this game and that starts with the Eagles weakness which would be their run defence. The Eagles rank 4th fewest for points conceded (16.9 PPG), 3rd for fewest yards allowed (299 YPG), 3rd for fewest pass yards allowed (177.6 YPG) at only 58.4% completion rate whilst leading the league in interceptions at 1.5 a game. So despite Heinicke’s heroics of late it can be assumed the Commanders won’t be able to win this game via his arm. But in terms of rushing the Eagles allow 5.2 yards per carry (4th worst) and have allowed 121.4 rush YPG which ranks 20th. The Commanders will need to target this as it’s the only apparent weakness that the Eagles have on either side of the ball, and doing so will be running back tandem of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. The duo haven’t been elite which will be concerning to Washington but Robinson has put up 43.8 YPG in his 5 appearances but has had a 73 yard performance against the Packers who have a similar defence to the Eagles, in terms of elite pass and poor run defence. Robinson’s carries have dropped to 10.5 a game over the last two and therefore the bookies have lowered his line to only 33.5 yards which I think is well worth a bet given the Commanders game script will be run heavy. As for Gibson he has more yards but only averages 36.4 YPG however he has carried the ball 12 and 15 times in his last two games against the Eagles, so his over 9.5 carries at evens makes plenty of appeal. The likelihood that the Commanders will be losing means the run game could be abandoned in favour of more explosive passing plays but this would also benefit Gibson who is averaging 3.5 receptions a game. With the other receiving back, J.D. McKissic, out of this game Gibson should see an uptick in these targets so over 3.5 at evens is another bet I’m fond of.
Despite a successful run game being key to victory against the Eagles I still expect the Commanders to pass to their average or maybe even above if we factor in the potential for garbage time yards, should they be behind. Heinicke will lead the team again and he’s averaged 209.6 yards in his 3 games but has been careless allowing 3 interceptions, something that is a concern when facing the team with the highest interception per game rate of 1.5. The main man to target would be Terry McLaurin whose season average is 67.7 YPG (ranking him 11th for most in the league prior to the Sunday games) but with Heinicke at QB he’s actually averaged 80.6 YPG. This has been a result of a higher number of targets, 8.3, more catches, 5.3, and what is clearly a far better connection with Heinicke than Wentz. Despite this recent surge in targets for McLaurin it has been Curtis Samuel who has seen the most targets on the year, averaging 7.3 per game hauling in 5 of those for an average of 50.6 YPG. Under Heinicke his yardage has improved slightly to 56 YPG yet targets have dropped to only 16 in 3 games with 11 catches. As a result his 4.5 receptions is a definite swerve for me but over 42.5 receiving yards could be backable given the bigger yardage receptions, albeit fewer of them. As for scary Terry he’ll be facing off with the elite players in Philly’s secondary, namely Darius Slay and Chauncey Gardner Johnson with the latter leading the league in interceptions with 5. Despite this McLaurin’s over is only 51.5 which is below his season average, but also almost 30 yards below his 3 game average making this a bet for me. He also has a line of 4.5 receptions priced at 5/4, like Samuel, but the stats suggest McLaurin is far more likely to land this than Samuel so at a bigger price than just yards it is tempting. The rest of the passing game is hard to predict, Gibson should take some targets as mentioned and the rookie Jahan Dotson is expected to return as well. Prior to injury he was averaging 3 catches for 38 YPG but incredibly had 4 TDs in 4 games, so whilst receptions/yards may be hard to predict he’s worth chancing on an anytime TD at 3/1.
Onto the Eagles and similar to the Commanders I’ll assess their offence in terms of exposing their opponent’s weakness. For the Commanders they aren’t elite in defence in any element, unlike the Eagles, however they are particularly bad at defending the pass. They rank 17th for points allowed (21.3 PPG), 14th for yardage allowed (330.7 YPG), 17th for pass yards (217.4 YPG) but 10th fewest for rush YPG at 113.3. A lot of very average stats with only 1 aspect of defence ranking in the top 10, their rushing yards allowed. However they have a huge outlying stat by way of passing TDs allowed- they’ve conceded 16 passing TDs with only 2 teams having conceded more, and they’ve only made 3 interceptions which is joint 3rd fewest. They clearly have a weakness against the pass and when facing an Eagles side that ranks 2nd in PPG and 9th in passing YPG (242.3) that’s something that will get exposed. Moreover Hurts has passed for 8 TDs in his last 3 without a single interception and has the 4th highest completion percentage among QBs at 68.1%. The main man that the Commanders will be focusing on will be AJ Brown who has been utterly dominant of late. The former Titan has a season average of 89.8 YPG and 6 TDs, however 5 of those TDs have come in his last 3 games and that 3 game spell has seen him average stats of 5/8 for 94 YPG. His number of targets and catches has actually declined slightly from his season stats of 5.4 receptions on 8.6 targets so I don’t like the market of receptions at 5.5 priced at 5/4. It could well sail in against such a weak pass defence but when his yardage over is only 71.5 and both his season and 3 game average clear that figure by 18 and 22.5 yards I’d much rather back him for yardage. Given his rich vein of TD scoring form, and the Commanders woeful record at stopping passing TDs, I’m also going to back the Sky Bet boost of Brown to record 100+ yards and score a TD at 11/2. In terms of other receivers Devonta Smith is generally Mr Consistent hauling in 40/53 catches equating to 5 catches a game, but he only saw 2 targets last game which is concerning. One game isn’t enough to be a trend but I’d advise caution with him especially with the form of TE Dallas Goedert. The TE actually ranks 2nd for receiving yards at the Eagles with an impressive 80% catch rate hauling in 5 catches a game on an average of 6.25 targets. An average YPG of 65.1 across the season but he is coming off a monster 100 yard and a TD performance in which he caught 8/9 balls. Over 4.5 receptions is very backable but his yards being as low as 46.5 is obscene and for the second week running he is my NAP to record an over on yards.
Onto the running game which is where the Commanders might hope to perform slightly better and dent the Eagle’s, however they’re facing a tough task against a team with the 6th highest rush YPG at 148.8 and 16 rushing TDs which leads the league at 2 a game. These stats are hugely impressive but the Commanders do hold the 10th best rushing defence by way of yards allowed as mentioned at 113.2 YPG, and impressively have only conceded 4 rushing TDs- something that ranks 2nd best in the league. The concern with this stat would be though that the Eagles are able to run the ball freely down the field but then resort to passing in the red zone, in which case our man Dallas Goedert should profit with TDs. Or the Commanders do manage to stifle the run leading the Eagles to pass their way down the field, which again provides our NAP Dallas Goedert with plenty of work- either way we hopefully win. Onto the Eagle’s running game and it all starts with the QB, Jalen Hurts has averaged 11 rushes per game across the season and an impressive 6 TDs at 408 YPG. Of late though he’s slowed down with his attempts dropping to 6.6 and yardage only 20 YPG in his last 3. He also hasn’t scored a rushing TD in any of these which is good news for Miles Sanders. The lead RB has the 6th most rushing yards in the NFL with 656 and averages 82 YPG. His average over his last 3 has dropped ever so slightly to 80.6 YPG but he has recorded a TD in each of these and so priced at 5/6 for over 68.5 yards I think that shapes up on the low side. I’d avoid him on the anytime TD market at 5/6 because a) I think it’s very short, and b) the Commanders do have that impressive record of only 4 rushing TDs conceded, and whilst Sanders does operate as a receiving back it’s to a minimal extent averaging less than 2 targets a game. The other RB to make note of is Kenneth Gainwell but with only 10 carries and 50 yards in his last 3 games he’s hard to account for in terms of betting, especially when one game he only saw 1 carry for 3 yards.
I think throughout I’ve tried to make a case for how the Commanders could win, be it through a dominant run game that they don’t necessarily have or through stopping the Eagle’s dominant run game which I think is a lot easier said than done. Realistically the Eagles should win this and at a canter as the 10.5 handicap suggests. Similar to last week when I previewed them against the Texans they have so many weapons it’s almost hard to establish who will profit most from their assumed victory and high yardage but I think the Sky Bet AJ Brown 100 yards and a TD boost is worth backing and I think Goedert over 46.5 yards is the NAP once again. For the Commanders I expect McLaurin to surpass his 51.5 line especially given his recent form with Heinicke where he’s recorded yardage of 73, 113 and 56 for an average of 80.6 YPG. In terms of score predictions I’m going to take the Eagles to cover handily and put up 25 points plus with 34-17 at 125/1 being my 50p punt.
Tips
Goedert over 46.5 receiving yards @5/6 NAP
AJ Brown 100+ receiving yards & a TD @11/2
McLaurin over 515.5 receiving yards @5/6 or over 4.5 receptions @5/4
Eagles -9.5 and over 44.5 total points @2/1
Goedert & Dotson both to score a TD @11/1 (Small Stakes)
Long Shot Bet Builder- Goedert & McLaurin 60+ receiving yards each, Robinson & Gibson 30+ rushing yards each, Brown over 4.5 receptions, Gibson over 2.5 receptions, Heinicker over 0.5 interceptions & Jalen Hurts over 1.5 passing TDs @95/1 with Bet Victor Bet Builder- small stakes.
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