By Sam Cook
Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)
The NFL’s Monday Night offering this week is a divisional matchup hailing from the AFC West. Tipped pre-season to be the premium division to watch the fireworks show hasn’t quite started for the lowly rated 1-3 Raiders. On the other hand the 2020 Superbowl champs Chiefs have made their way to a confusing 3-1 start.
The Chiefs 4 game run thus far has featured divisional rivals and highly touted LA Chargers whom they beat in part thanks to the boot of backup kicker Matt Amendola in a tight 27-24 victory. They put the 2021 Superbowl winning Buccs to the sword last week putting up 41 points in a rushing masterclass. Particularly impressive about this win was the fact the Buccs had only ceded 27 points in their 3 previous games combined. Similarly they put up huge numbers and 44 points in their season opener vs the Cardinals with former MVP Mahomes notching up 360 yards and 5 passing touchdowns. All good wins with 2 coming against 2021 playoff teams however the confusion and mystery surrounding the Chiefs season came in week 3 with a loss to the simply abysmal Indianapolis Colts. Their victory over the Chiefs as 2/1 outsiders puts a stain on an otherwise perfect season for the Chiefs.
Their opponents the Raiders could only wish for a record of 3-1, instead dwindling at 1-3 having lost to two of the teams that the Chiefs put away (24-19 to LA & 29-23 OT loss to AZ). Another tight loss came in week 3 to the Titans as they went down 24-22. As such the Raiders can be seen as an unlucky 1-3 or maybe they just don’t have the bottle. That's something that's sure to be tested in a wild Arrowhead stadium on early Tuesday morning. They did get in the win column against AFC West rival and this year's underperforming Broncos, however they let the Russ Wilson led offence put up 23 points which is the only occasion the Broncos have scored more than 20 through 5 games. A worrying stat when coming up against an offence that has twice cleared 40 points in only four games.
Let's break down that Chiefs offence as first year Raiders defensive coordinator Patrick Graham will attempt to do. Although in his first year with the Vegas outfit he’s been DC at the Giants for the past 3 years who have seen vast improvements under his leadership. One particular stat that's noteworthy is that they held QBs to 225.8 yards per game ranking 15th in the league, and caught 15 picks ranking 12th. Granted the Giants fell to a losing record of 4-13 but these stats suggest offensive failings were the problem, as does the sacking of head coach Joe Judge. His tenure with the Raiders hasn’t started as sweetly having conceded 100 points (9th most) and forfeiting 257.75 yards per game to opposing QBs and the fifth highest completion percentage at 68.9%. Both are worrying stats given they come up against Mahomes who so far has put up 276.5 yards a game and the 10th best completion percentage of 66%. A key problem has been the inability to get to the quarterback and with only 5 sacks (31st in the league) and defensive end Maxx Crosby has put up 4 of those, already halfway to his total of 8 from 2021. Locking up Crosby will be key for the Chiefs as Mahomes has already been sacked 5 times so far. That’s a surprise for a line containing 2021 free agency splash players like Orlando Brown and Joe Thuney, not to mention 2021 rookie Creed Humphrey who were it not for Jamarr Chase’s insane stats (and the lack of love shown to the big guys in end of season awards) could have put a real claim forward for offensive rookie of the year. As such the task seems simple for the Chiefs to get their high powered passing game going- stop Crosby and you stop the rush. Speaking of rush the Raiders have only allowed 413 ground yards which ranks 9th best in the league at a rate of 3.9 yards per carry (8th best). Their downfall though is in short yardage situations as they’ve allowed 5 rushing TDs and the in form Clyde Edwards Helaire (92 rush yards & a TD vs the Buccs) will look to take advantage of this.
We’ve already hinted at how the Chiefs will break down this defence, as they do tend to dominate and terrorise most defences in the league. Their 129 points through 4 games, ranking 2nd behind the stat breaking Lions, suggests this. Whilst the Chiefs aren’t hitting their 2019 and 2020 heights they rank consistently high in all metrics that matter in terms of passing. That’s the sort of consistency you can expect when your quarterback is generational. Mahomes is 10th ranked for passing yards at 1106, 10th for completion percentage at 66% and 9th for yards per pass attempt. Couple this with his 11 touchdown passes (league high with Jared Goff) and only 2 interceptions it's fair to say the Chiefs aren’t missing star wideout Tyreek Hill too much, despite his monster numbers out in Miami. The key reason for this is they’ve finally found a running game. They sit 12th for rushing yards with 2020 first rounder Clyde Edwards Helaire putting up 208 of those at an impressive 5.1 yards per carry and this year's rookie RB Isiah Pacheco clocking 140 at a similar 5 yards per carry. More impressive from Pacheco is 53.57% of his rush attempts (15/28) have come against 8 men in the box defensive schemes, resulting in him sitting 6th ranked for rush yards over their expected rate. The Raiders D will know this but finding a way to combat it is another question. What's not in question is that Travis Kelce is still an absolute baller. He’s by far the most productive tight end in football and last week surpassed Rob Gronkowski to place himself 5th for most receiving yards by tight ends in league history. He’s currently boasting a stat line of 26 catches on 34 targets (3rd highest catch percentage when targeted over 30 times this year at 76.47%) for 322 yards and is well on his way for a record 7th straight 1000 yard season as a tight end. Quite simply there isn’t a formula to stop him so expect a good amount of targets and for him to surpass his line of over/under 5.5 catches as he’s averaging 6.5 catches a game. A quick mention for new boy Juju Smith Schuster who boasts an impressive 70.37% catch rate and is a value play at over 4.5 receptions given he’s surpassing that rate so far (19 catches on 27 looks).
A lot of these stats are suggesting a Chiefs blowout, something that has been the case in recent history. The Chiefs have won 3 of the last 4 with both of last year’s meetings being 48-9 and 41-14 blowout games with 11 touchdowns coming from the arm of Mahomes. However the fact is neither team are totally dominant on defence, Raiders forfeiting 100 points and the Chiefs 96- across their two shared opponents (LAC & AZ) the Chiefs conceded 45 relative to the Raiders 53. The Chiefs are being hailed by some as a strong run D however while surrendering only 263 yards on the ground across 4 games is impressive they faced a Buccs team that attempted only 6 run plays. They stifled them for 6 yards and have generally been dominant on yards per carry allowed (3.3 ranked 2nd best behind 49ers) but their run D is not what the Raiders will target. The Chiefs allow a league 31st ranked completion percentage to opposition QBs of 70.3% and give up 263.75 a game. Moreover they’ve only forced one interception and are among only 7 teams to have less than 2 picks. The loss of the ‘Honey Badger’ Tyrann Mathieu is showing and that will be music to Derek Carr’s ears as he has tossed up 4 picks thus far, and went for a pick in both games vs the Chiefs last year. The Honey Badger was responsible for one of the two interceptions last year whilst also taking 2 fumble returns to the house, 1 in each game. His presence will be missed and is something Carr can take confidence in as he tries to bolster his 61.3% completion rate (22nd in the league). A reason as to why this is so low could be due to Clemson wideout Hunter Renfrow missing 2 of the 4 games. He’s acted as Carr’s safety blanket in this offence and recorded a 103 catch season last year (128 targets). That familiarity is something that can’t be underestimated as highlighted by the comparatively low catch percentage of star acquisition Davante Adams. Thus far the former Packer (2927 yards & 29 TDs in his last two completed seasons) hasn’t gelled with Carr and it's not for the lack of targets. He sits with a respectable 290 yards (15th highest) but has only caught 26 of his 47 targets which needs to improve. He may see less double teams in the early hours of Tuesday morning though as Renfrow is slated to return. The Chiefs have seen 175 pass attempts come their way (2nd behind the Ravens 177) and this is in part because for 2 of their 3 wins they were never behind, forcing teams to chase the game via the air than allow the run- something that does align with their deceptive statline of only 65 rush yards allowed per game. The Raiders will therefore likely try to split run and pass evenly and get former 1st round pick Josh Jacobs going who’s accounted for 336 of their 452 rushing yards. His 4.8 yards per carry rates 6th in the league but the Vegas backfield is very much a one man show (Jacobs 70 of 91 Raiders carries) and should he be nullified the Raiders are in danger of another blowout.
The line for this game sits at 7.5 in favour of the Chiefs which they significantly covered in both matchups last year. However both teams are in different life cycles now and I don’t expect a blowout at all. This looks set to be a one score game providing the Raiders don’t allow a first half massacre to happen. If the Raiders can stay even in the turnover battle or even lead the Chiefs (6th most rushing fumbles at 3) in that department I think a one score game or upset could well be on the cards. The over/under is set at 50.5 which is worth taking on given the lack of defensive ability shown so far by both teams allowing 25 & 24 points a game each whilst both ranking top 10 in terms of scoring. For those staying up on Monday night I think we could be treated to a shootout and a score of 34-28 wouldn’t surprise me (backable at 150s) albeit picking scores in the NFL is like trying to win the Grand Prix in a Kia Picanto- a hell of a lot has to go right for the stars to align. Expect the Chiefs to extend to 4-1 but I don’t foresee them having it all their own way.
Tips
Raiders +7.5 and over 54.5 points @ 7/2
Each team to score 20 points @ 5/6
Travis Kelce & Josh Jacobs both to score a TD @ 3/1
Both QBs over 260 yards passing, 2+ passing TDs & Kelce & Renfrow both over 5.5 catches
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