By Sam Cook
Monday Night Football travels to Mexico for the NFC West divisional matchup and it’s a game of huge importance especially for the 49ers. A win for the San Fran side would take them top of the NFC West on account of their win over the Seahawks (6-4) and would also take them to a record of 4-1 in their division. With the Rams in free fall only 9 months after a Superbowl win Jimmy G and the boys could make a charge for the playoffs.
For the Cardinals it’s almost a situation of win or miss the playoffs, a loss would put them in a situation where they would probably have to win 5 of their last 6 games and even then, that wouldn’t guarantee the playoffs. The problem for them would be that they don’t get home field advantage, playing in the Azteca as part of the NFL’s international series and also QB Kyler Murray is doubtful. The game could end up in the hands of Colt McCoy, the career backup, who actually managed to guide them to a win at the Rams last week, highlighting LA’s deficiencies.
As for this game the 49ers are heavy favourites with the handicap being set at 7.5 and the under/over for points at 42.5. Based on the Cardinals games that seems very low as a minimum of 44 points has been scored in their last four games and they concede the 4th most points in the league at a rate of 25.8 PPG. However, the factor that causes that line to be so low would be the 49ers impressive defence, and the fact their offence is only average. The 49ers sit almost bang in the middle for points scored per game ranking 17th with an average of 22, compared to the Cardinals 23 (12th), but it’s their defence that has won them so many games and the reason why I think the under could be the way to bet tonight as they only allow 18.1 PPG (6th fewest). In all of their wins this season the opposition has failed to score more than 16 points, so for the Cardinals the goal is clear- score 17 points or more.
I don’t think the Cardinals will manage that though, as mentioned Kyler is a doubt, but if they do it will be because of WR Hopkins who has averaged 99 receiving yards and scored 2 TDs since his return. During these four games he has seen over 11 targets and made 9 catches on average and was a favourite of Colt McCoy last week so his over 5.5 looks low. He’ll face a strong passing defence though, but it is worth noting that whilst the 49ers concede the least yards to opposition teams (280.6- the only team under 300), 197.9 of those are passing yards ranking 10th. By contrast they boast the 2nd best rush defence allowing only 82.7 yards per game so it would seem obvious that the Cardinals take the lesser of two evils and target the secondary by utilising their passing game. The loss of Zach Ertz will harm this as he was averaging almost 5 catches per game however Rondale Moore has established himself of late with the diminutive WR putting up 6 or more catches in four of his last five with his last three games showing an average of 8 catches on 10 targets for 85 yards. Unfortunately, the bookies seem to be holding off on releasing odds until a decision on QB Murray is made but I’d advise over 4.5 catches and 50+ yards. As for the running game Kyler makes up most of it but James Conner has returned from injury and will look to add to his 44.9 yard game average and 3 TDs, but against a superior run D don’t expect much.
As for the 49ers offence it’s been shaped of late by the addition of Christian McCaffrey who has done everything at his new team, even passing a TD in one game. In his 3 games with the side he averaged 56.7 rush YPG and 39.3 receiving YPG recording 3 TDs and an average of 4.8 catches on just under 6 targets. He faces a Cardinals defence that is weaker in the pass game than the run (10th most receiving yards allowed but 11th fewest rush yards) and so any bets on CMC I’d advise total yards, as opposed to just rushing yards. As for the passing game it’s run by Jimmy G who is perfectly average but rarely can win a game on his own, hence the importance of that 49ers strong defence. Averaging 241.4 YPG but for only 11 TDs in his 8 games he’s suitable at best however he’s very safe. He hasn't thrown an interception in any of his last 5 games and faces a Cardinals D that’s made 7 on the year- ranking bang in the middle of the league average. Those passing targets will be Aiyuk and Samuel, TE George Kittle seems to have been forgotten about a lot this year and saw only 2 targets against the Rams. Aiyuk leads the team in targets (just under 7 per game), receptions (just under 5) and yards (63 YPG) and also has 4 TDs. His last four games have seen him record in order from most recent- 84, 81, 82 and 83. He’s been consistent to say the least and has averaged just under 7 catches a game on just under 9 targets. His over 55.5 yards seems like an obvious play but over 4.5 receptions is priced at the larger 11/10 so that could be the better value. In contrast Deebo Samuel has an over 53.5 but his average in the same four game stretch has been 41.2 YPG at only 4 catches per game. The value points to Aiyuk.
As for bets and the prediction I think the 49ers should win with ease thanks to their shutout defence but a special Hopkins show could scupper that. For me I think the 49ers are good value to win 24-17 (100/1) which would fail to cover their handicap and also fail to hit the over for points. Instead, my bets would be on player specific props notably Rondale Moore overs (unpriced at time of writing) and Brandon Aiyuk overs.
Tips
49ers Money Line @2/7 (Adding to my WC accas)
CMC anytime TD @4/7 or two TDs @3/1
Brandon Aiyuk over 55.5 receiving yards @10/11
Rondale Moore over 3.5 receptions/50 yards - TBC
Opmerkingen