Manchester City v Arsenal
Friday 20:00 @ The Ethiad
City (3/4) Draw (11/4) Arsenal (7/2)
The FA Cup Fourth Round kicks off tonight and the tie of the round opens it up as first place in the Premier League visits second with the graduate, Mikel Arteta, returning to defeat his professor, Pep Guardiola.
They're yet to meet this season but Arsenal have shown their credentials against the rest of the top teams this season with their victory over City's rivals, United, being fresh in the memory. That was coupled with a victory over their own derby rivals, Spurs, highlighting Arsenal's aptitude in these big games. As for City they enter the game on the back of two wins, one over shared opponents Spurs, however they did lost to United just 13 days ago.
Both of these teams have been masters of the cup format and one-off games in recent history with City having made the semi-final in the last four seasons whilst Arsenal have managed that feat four times in the past decade. Incentive for silverware for the Gunners would be that in the past three FA Cup victories against Man City they've gone on to lift the trophy, most recently in 2020 under Arteta.
The value in the match clearly lies with Arsenal considering they're priced as huge outsiders yet have been the standout team in the country. Their 3-0 win over Oxford in round three was hard fought after a poor first half whereas City just blew aside Chelsea in fashion with a 4-0 win. Both are clearly sides that can score and score lots with both teams averaging over 2 goals per game in the Prem ranking first and second with City (2.65) and Arsenal (2.37), and I fancy BTTS with this being one of the key reasons.
Arsenal have played in six matches against the traditional big six and both teams have scored in four of them despite their typically strong defence. As for City their defence is in the worst stats it's been in years and they've kept just two clean sheets from six in their Premier League matchups since the return of domestic football. In their five Prem meetings against opposing 'big six' sides, three games have seen BTTS including the last two - a 2-1 loss to Untied and 4-2 win against Spurs, both in the last fortnight.
So we've picked out BTTS as part of the bet, as a single it's priced at 3/4 which is backable as a single but pairing it with a result will provide much more value. This game will likely be the foreplay ahead of their meeting in the Premier League which comes around in the middle of February. As such I can see both managers wanting to keep their cards close to their chest and team line-ups that don't reflect their first-choice eleven. The tendency to rotate benefits City far more than it does Arsenal, given their superior squad depth.
Expect the likes of World Cup star Julian Alvarez to feature, such is the depth of City's team, whilst Jack Grealish and Riyad Mahrez could play on the flanks. If one of those wingers drops out it will only serve to make way for Phil Foden so it's understandable as to why City are favourites and I'll be backing them alongside the BTTS element. City will rest the reliable Ederson and when their defence is in such shaky form (only 3/9 CS since return) then I'll back Arsenal to score against them. City to win and BTTS is boosted with BinkBet from 12/5 to 3/1 which represents stonking value in my opinion. Bear in mind City have won the last five meetings and two of those came via the BTTS method, given Arsenal's improvement I expect this to be closer but still ultimately City's game by a margin of 2/3-1.
Onto the goal scorers and I think this presents the perfect opportunity for Arteta to mix in his new man Leandro Trossard. It also helps that the Belgian loves a game against Man City with a goal in his last outing against them and also the likelihood that he'll operate off the wing versus City's fullbacks, a real problem position for Guardiola this season. Trossard to score anytime is priced at 19/5 and 12/1 for both the Belgian and Julian Alvarez to score. In the Prem this season Trossard has been averaging 1.1 shots on target per game from 2.2 shots so expect him to test Ortega in net.
The last two meetings have both seen Arsenal shown red and the referee for tonight's match is Paul Tierney who dished out a red card to Arsenal the last time he officiated them, all the way back in May, with Rob Holding seeing red and a flurry of yellows late on for the injured Smith-Rowe, electric Odegaard and the standard Granit Xhaka. His average of 3.14 seems to be exaggerated when the Gunners play so I'll take over 3.5 cards.
A game that's set in the limelight on a stand-alone fixture is one that's almost always full of drama so taking the over 0.5 VAR incidents seems smart money, especially when priced at just over 6/4.
Tips
Man City to win & BTTs - 3/1 (BinkBet boost)
Trossard to Score - 19/5
Trossard & Alvarez both to score - 12/1
Over 3.5 bookings - 3/4
Over 0.5 VAR incidents - 6/4
Man City to win 3-1 - 12/1
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