By Sam Cook
Denver Broncos (2-5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)
The Jags make their annual pilgrimage to London and despite offering up a woeful 2-5 record they enter their home from home as favourites for once. Facing off against a hugely below expectations Denver side that also sits 2-5. The Jags hold a slim 1.5 handicap line advantage with the over/under for points being set at only 40.5. Worth noting is that the Jags have played 8 times in London with 7 of these matchups surpassing 40.5 points-2019 being the exception (Texans 26-3 Jags). This should be a fun matchup between two sides desperate to find their groove under new Head Coaches with the loser all but being eliminated from playoff contention, hence the competitive and close nature of the handicap line.
The ‘visitors’ come to London with QB injury worries. I’m not talking about the fact Wilson is carrying a knock (which he supposedly rehabbed by doing high knees for 4 hours on the flight over), but instead about the fact the Broncos decided to sign him to a 5 year $256 million contract. Russ was supposed to take this side over the precipice and towards a first AFC West title and playoff appearance since 2015 with genuine aspirations for a Superbowl. Instead they’ve averaged a league low of 14.3 points scored per game and lost 5 times with 5 being one score games, 2 of which went to overtime. Both their wins have also been one score games as well so it’s fair to assume we’ll see a tight matchup come Sunday. The only reason they’ve managed those 2 wins is that they’ve restricted opponents to 16.4 PPG (3rd best in the league) with both wins seeing their opponents restricted to 10 and 9. Effectively if the game goes beyond 25 points (all but 7 games have this season) then the Broncos will lose by a score or less.
The Jags also come in with a 2-5 record but there will be much more optimism in North Florida than in Colorado. The team is clearly improving on last season and their off season spending has thus far been justified, or at least more justified than a $50 million a year QB who has been abysmal. The addition of Christian Kirk saw an uptick in last year's number 1 pick, Trevor Lawrence, at least in their early performances yet this team has instead now found an identity as a running team. Such confidence in their other 2021 first round draft pick, Travis Etienne, is that they’ve traded former 1000 yard rusher James Robinson away to leave Etienne with complete control of the backfield. This clear sense of direction will hopefully help them snap their 4 game losing streak, albeit two games came against the league leading NFC East Eagles and Giants. They’ve traded wins with division rivals the Colts but most impressively put away the Chargers 38-10, something far beyond what the Broncos did when they visited LA (lost 19-16 in OT). As such it looks set to be a very intriguing matchup.
The battle of the Broncos elite defence (league 3rd lowest16.4 PPG allowed) against the Jags powerful offence, in yards if not points, (7th most yards per game at 371.3 contrasting an average 17th ranked 22.1 PPG) is what I like the most about this game. The Broncos defence is built on their ability to stifle the pass allowing only 173.1 pass YPG (2nd lowest allowed) and that comes from both the big men up front (22 sacks 5th most), but also the secondary led by 2nd year Pat Surtain II (defended 5 passes) who have only 4 interceptions but incredibly allow a league low 4.8 yards per pass attempt. Even more impressive is that they have only allowed 3 passing TDs across 7 games. It seems very convenient that the Jags have been making a concerted effort to establish the run and define their running back room because they aren’t likely to make much of a dent by taking a pass first approach on Sunday. That pass offence is hard to predict because Lawrence’s stat line are incredibly up and down- he cleared 300 yards against the Giants last week and in week 5 saw similar efforts with 282 yards. Both occasions saw the Jags chasing the game and that forcing of the pass led to stat lines of 22/43 and 25/47 with 2 interceptions and 0 TDs. Week 6 however saw a huge 91% completion rate and 21/23 but only for 168 yards. They did also lose this game but it was far more controlled so the suggestion is that if the Jags have a strong foothold in the game it’ll likely be in spite of Lawrence and he’ll act as a game manager, but if they’re chasing he’ll almost certainly surpass his overs of 215.5 pass yards and 32.5 passing attempts. What’s more likely though is a heavy run scheme, which would target the weaker side of the Bronco’s defence albeit still above average (allowed 112.9 rush YPG 15th best), and would also utilise the Jags new found strength/identity of running the football. They rank 9th for rush YPG with 137.4 however in their last 2 games they’ve surpassed this with 142 yards at 6.8 YPC, 243 at 7.4 YPC and across his last 3 Travis Etienne has accumulated 271 rush yards at a huge 8 YPC. The Clemson product has also racked up 70 receiving yards to make him a 114 scrimmage yards per game machine in his last 3. If the Broncos can stop him then they may well stop the Jags, however evidence suggests they won’t as they have allowed number one/lead running backs big numbers lately. Breece Hall racked up 72 yards before departing through injury at half time last week, Austin Ekeler saw 83 scrimmage yards and a TD in week 6 whilst third string Deon Jackson put up 91 scrimmage yards in the absence of Taylor & Hines in week 5. Etienne has a line of 71.5 rushing yards and form plus history of the Broncos against lead RBs suggests that’s far too low. 95.5 rush and receiving would also be tough to ignore.
We’ve established Etienne will be a huge threat from the running back position but despite our interpretation that the Jags will be run first it’s still evident that Lawrence made 21 passes as ‘game manager’ in his quietest passing performance of late. The yards might not be there but receptions certainly are and my favourite player to target on the bets, as Lawrence's on the field would be the aforementioned Christian Kirk. He saw plenty of usage in the first few weeks before seeing a drop off, however he returned with a bang last week recording 7 catches on 10 targets for 96 yards. This was one of Lawrence’s pass happy games and so Zay Jones, Evan Engram and Marvin Jones all saw plenty of targets- 10, 7 and 8 respectively. If we assume this will be a lower passing game then looking at week 6 it was a similar set of faces- Engram 5/6, Zay Jones 5/5 and Kirk 4/5. The passing volume has halved and the targets did as well but for someone like Zay Jones or Engram whose over for receptions sits at 3.5 they’re of interest. Particularly so is Engram who has been priced at 5/4 to record 4 catches- something he has done in his last 3 outings, whilst seeing an average of almost 8 targets per game. The Broncos allowed 5 catches on 8 targets to tight ends vs the Jets and 8/10 to the Chargers with the standout tight end amongst those teams being veteran Gerald Everett. Engram is far more athletic than Everett but stands just as tall 6’3 whilst still being 240 pounds just like Everett. He could be a matchup nightmare for the Broncos as Kirk will take away the danger of Pat Surtain and so Engram may be free to put up some big numbers.
.
The less explosive battle will be the tame Broncos offence against a surprisingly stout Jags defence, the raw stats suggest there won’t be a lot of points with the Broncos being the leagues lowest scorers (14.3 PPG) only putting up 328.6 YPG which leaves them in the bottom 10 across the league. It’s expected to be Wilson returning at QB but his 240 YPG aren’t spectacular and he faces a Jags D allowing almost exactly the same- 238.1 YPG. A worrying stat for Wilson would be the Jags 7 interceptions however they haven’t recorded any in their last 3 which is indicative of them losing out against teams they should be beating i.e. the Texans and the Colts. Another positive for Wilson would be the Jags have only recorded 11 sacks this year, whilst the Broncos QB has been downed on 21 occasions. That lack of pass rush could trouble the Jags and allow Wilson to find the groove he’s been looking for all season- his pass completion is the lowest it’s ever been in his career at 58.6% and he has a low TD to INT rate of only 5 to 3. He isn’t short of receivers either with the duo of Sutton and Jeudy being supported by TE Dulcich and speedster KJ Hamler. Sutton and Jeudy have seen 58 and 47 targets a piece but a catch rate of only 58% and 51% has let them down, and helps explain Wilson’s career low completion percentage. Nevertheless the pair have put up 840 yards between them, both recording 6 catches of 20 yards or more. This deep threat is always there and has been exemplified by Hamler who has only 5 catches on 11 targets but 2 big plays. Similarly Kendall Hinton’s 6 catches include three 20 yard or larger catches. Key to stopping this will be Rayshawn Jenkins who has 9 pass defences (tied 3rd in the league) however even he might not be able to stop the deep threat considering Hinton and Hamler both possess killer speed. Whilst I don’t expect either player to record numerous receptions I do see potential for one big play a piece and Hamler’s over 17.5 receiving yards looks worth a punt, maybe in a bet builder given its odds on status. It’s hard to advise any other receiving or passing stats given that star boy Sutton has only 37 yards and 5 catches on 12 targets across his last two. Forecasting a bounce back against an average to good pass defence would just be misguided, although it is something I wouldn’t rule out as is the nature of the NFL this season. Greg Dulcich could be a value play, only elevated to the roster in the past two weeks but he’s recorded 8 catches on 12 targets across his last 2 including 6 on 9 last week. It is worth noting though that Rypien was QB last week and so that same connection with the returning Wilson can’t be assured but with his over only 33.5 yards he’s another to boost any bet builders.
The running game has stalled out for the Broncos, much like their season, with the loss of Javonte Williams being a key reason why. In a snap share with veteran Melvin Gordon the Broncos run game started off strong, clearing 100 yards in each of their first 3 games. Since then they have only managed that twice in four with Melvin Gordon being a fumble hazard (3 fumbles on 66 carries) whilst only putting up 3.5 YPC (7th lowest). The running backs aren’t just to blame, the offensive line must take some of the heat as it’s a fundamental problem for the Denver side. They are one of only three sides that has yet to record a rush of over 20 yards, however they have run the ball 17 and 20 times more than those others. A lack of explosion in the ground game looks set to continue as the Jags boast the 4th best ranked YPC rate allowed of only 4.1. Moreover linebackers Josh Allen and Foyesade Oluokon have combined to force 2 fumbles and recover 2 respectively, so should Gordon get his hands on the ball it could spell disaster. Veteran Latavius Murray has come in from the Saints and could well lead the backfield but his 3.9 YPC and 45 YPG aren’t much to worry about despite being superior to Gordon’s 3.5 YPC & 33.4 YPG. Strangely enough the running stats gained and allowed mirror each other, just like the passing stats did, with the Broncos averaging 109.4 rush yards per game and the Jags ceding 110.3. For reminder the passing stats were 240 for Denver with Wilson at QB with the Jags allowing only 238.1. Effectively there’s no reason for us to assume the Broncos will be any better than they have been all season and if that's the case then they likely won’t score any more than 16. They’ve failed to tally 16 on three occasions, scored exactly 16 on three occasions and scored 20 or more only once, when in defeat to the Raiders (32-23). The Jags have also limited 3 of their 7 opponents thus far to 16 or less implying the Broncos will probably score around 16 again.
Final thoughts for the game are that the Jags will win and if the trend continues this should in theory mean Lawrence passes only about 25 times, completing 18 or more for about 200 yards. The Jags will then rush for 150 with Etienne putting up a ton again and the Bronco’s feeble response will be 3 field goals from the boot of McManus and a TD courtesy of Russ forcing the ball deep. If you want to send that summary to the bookies and ask for a request a bet then be my guest but I think the markets I’ll stick to will be one that's favoured us well lately. Jags to win -3.5 and under 40.5 points is a 3/1 shot, I’d also maybe hedge it by taking the Jags and the over as well at 10/3 given that 7 of their 8 London games have seen 41 or more points. My score prediction would be 20-13 to the Jags at 125s but should we see Russ improve and the points trend land then 24-17 or 24-20 at 100s a piece would interest me. For me these are only 50 pence bets at most with the tips below being my main suggestions at 1 point win unless specified.
Tips
Alternative handicap Jags -3.5 @5/4
Jaguars -2.5, Etienne anytime TD, Broncos to score 2 or more field goals. Oddschanger Request a Bet with Sky @9/2
Engram over 3.5 receptions @5/4
Foyesade Oluokon over 8.5 tackles and assists @Evens
Dulcich 20+ receiving yards, Hamler 15+ receiving yards, Jeudy 40+ receiving yards, Z. Jones & Kirk both over 2.5 receptions, Sutton over 3.5 receptions, Murray 30+ rushing yards & Etienne 70+ rushing yards @24/1. Long shot bet builder with Bet Victor combining lots of low unders to create an 8 leg bet builder. 0.5 points advised.
Comments