By Sam Cook
Primiera Liga
20:15 BST
BT Sport 2
Porto 27/20, Draw 9/4, Benfica 19/10
A top of the table clash in the Estadio do Dragao sees the visitors Benfica sitting first with an unbeaten record of 8 wins and 1 draw taking on hosts Porto who have lost 1 game but only sit 3 points back having won their last 3. Porto have also won the last 3 matchups and haven’t lost to the Lisbon side in 9 matches. As a result they’re favourites to extend that to 10 matches partly because of their immense home record. They haven’t been beaten in the league at home in over 2 years, 3rd October 2020, recording 31 wins and 5 draws in that period. They also come in with better form winning their last 4 across all comps 13-0 on aggregate whereas Benfica have drawn 4 of their last 5 only scoring 7 whilst failing to keep a clean sheet in 4 of those 5. Porto look value at 4/6 in the draw no bet market but this seems a game to bet on corners, shots and bookings instead given the difficult nature of calling top of the table clashes at times.
Both sides record over 6 shots on target per 90 (Porto 6.11, Benfica 6.44) but Benfica so far have only allowed 15 shots on target in their 9 games yet have conceded 5 of those 15 which is the 5th highest goal per shot on target rate conceded in the league. Expect Mehdi Taremi to put this to the test with his average of 2.7 shots per league game, the Iranian has also created 7 big chances and registered 4 assists so he's worth backing to score or assist any time. Another shot happy player is Galeno with 2.62 shots per 90 but he’s also on form scoring 3 in his last 4. He’s 3/1 to score anytime which is stonking value. For Benfica the main man up top is Goncalo Ramos who’s pulling the trigger 3.8 times a match recording 1.6 shots on target per 90. Given Benfica’s huge 68.4% possession rate (higher than any team in Europe’s top 5 leagues) he’ll be given opportunities even in such a tough matchup so a shot on target seems inevitable. Further back in attack is Joao Mario who has scored 4 in 8 so far whilst shooting 20 times (2.5 a game) and creating 3 goals. Benfica cross the ball almost 25 times per game which is another huge asset given Porto centre half Pepe is out injured and Ramos averages 1.1 headed shots a game. Benfica average 8.7 corners per game relative to the quite low 6.6 for Porto however I’d expect a reversal of this in tonight's matchup as I fancy Porto to really challenge the Benfica goal. Porto over 7 and Benfica over 4 seems more in line with what I’d expect.
Onto the bookings which are sure to feature given the huge stakes on the game- a chance to extend to 6 points and target a first league title since 18/19 for Benfica, or a chance to draw level on points and go top for Porto. The last 3 matchups have seen an insane 14 cards, 9 cards and 9 cards including 3 red cards. An average of almost 11 cards a game has decimated the markets for booking points so targeting individual players may be the way to go with this. Referee Joao Pinheiro loves to flash the yellow as well with 71 cards in 14 matches- just over 5 a game including 32 in 6 Portuguese league matches whilst awarding 2 penalties. A penalty to be taken is 7/4 which certainly looks tempting. Porto centre half Fabio Cardoso has stepped in for the injured Pepe and has seen yellow in 2 of his 3 games. For Benfica tricky attacker Rafa Silva has actually been carded 4 times but because of his position he may be a value option. Other candidates are Wilson Manafa who has returned from injury and time with the B squad, he’ll go against Silva and also the overlapping Grimaldo from full back and will likely have too much on his plate.
Expect plenty of cards and a very entertaining game.
My short price bet builder would be (3/1):
Both teams to have 30+ Booking points
Both teams to have over 3.5 corners
Over 1.5 goals
My long price bet builder would be (35/1):
Cardoso to be carded
Otamendi to be carded
Both teams to have over 3.5 corners
Galeno to score anytime
My single bets are:
A penalty awarded (7/4)
Galeno to score anytime (3/1)
Porto draw no bet (4/6)
Porto 3-1 (16/1)
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