By Sam Cook
Monday Night Football Stat Pack
The stat pack is a bit different this week- I’ve just taken the key stats I found whilst researching the MNF deep dive preview article (go read it for my tips and analysis) and I’m presenting them exactly as I typed them up. Just a list of the key stats for players, teams, points etc that I noted down whilst prepping the preview. Bit of a mess but hopefully some insight for betting. Anything in bold I think is key for betting.
Bengals offensive stats
8th most points per game- 24.7
5th most passing yards per game- 278.7- Burrows had 481 vs the Falcons last week at 81% completion rate for 3 TDs.
Poor rushing attack- 5th worst only 87.4 YPG- Mixon has huge volume- 121 carries but only for 405 yards- joint league low with Najee Harris for YPC (over 100 carries) at 3.3 for only 2 tds.
Burrows second best rusher with 30 for 130.
Burrows 15 TD to 5 INT but has been sacked 24 times- poor O-Line is clearly why mixon struggles to run the ball.
Tied 2nd highest for passes over 40 yards with 7- explosive plays. Also 5th highest for plays over 20 yards with 25- Chase 8, Boyd 8 and Higgins 6.
3rd most passing tds- 3rd highest comp percentage at 69% on the 5th most attempts- 8th most for yards per attempt as well. Pass heavy.
Chase out- has commanded 74 targets so far- over 10.5 a game- 3rd highest average in the league behind Hill at 11 and Kupp at 12.
Chase will be missed- averaged 86.4 YPG and 6 TDs including 132 and 130 in his last two for 15 catches and 4 TDs.
Boyd stepped up last week- only 38 targets all season but 29 catches for 455- put up 8 of 9 for 155 and a TD last week- set to see a lot more targets but a lot more coverage now.
Higgins ticks along as well but will likely see number 1 CB coverage - still managed 93 yards on 5 catches and 7 targets last week but was a clear 3rd option. Also has 455 yards like Boyd but on 31 catches and 44 targets for 2 tds so less efficient option.
TE Hurst 29/39 similar to boyds but only for 226- only 32.2 YPG but expect an increase in targets now especially now he has no injury designation. 15 of his 29 catches have been for first down.
Mixon also an option out of the backfield- same with Perine. Mixon 75% catch rate on 27/36 for 182 with Perine 14/17 for 113- if he's targeted he makes the catches typically- could benefit from an uptick in work-2 catches on 2 targets last two games and then 4/4 the week prior.
Browns defence stats
Browns allowing a lot of points- 4th most at 26.6 pg- averaged 30.3 over the last 3 games but only played one top 10 scoring team (ravens put up 23 against them last week- ironically below their average of 26 PPG).
Average pass D 14th best allowing 210.4 a game but have played out of form Lamar, rookie qb for Pats, Mariota, Trubisky, Flacco and Baker. Benefitted from playing some of the worst qbs in the league but coming up against Burrow who has the 5th highest passer rating at 102.7 (only 5 players who have played 4 or more above 100).
9th worst run D for yards allowed- 135.6 a game and tied 10th most YPC at 4.7- mixon might have more luck.
Allowed league high 13 rushing tds- 160 yards and 2 tds last week vs Ravens, 98 yards and 3 tds vs Pats week before, 238 and 2 tds vs Chargers the week before.
Only 2 INTs- only 2 teams have less in the league.
Average 2 sacks a game- led by Myles Garrett with 6, 2nd year Owusu-Koramoah has 2 forced fumbles and Garrett 2 as well.
Browns offence
10th most ppg at 24 ppg
21st for passing yards per game 214.4- without Watson until week 14. Brissett deputised relatively well as a game manager- over 30 attempts a game despite being rush first- 6 tds but 5 INTs isn't good enough. 62.7% completion rate- bottom 10 for starting QBs.
Sacked only 2 times a game. Good O-Line hence the strength of run game.
4th most rush yards per game at 163.6 with Nick Chubb leading the league at 740 yards- average of almost 106 a game and 8 TDs at 5.9 YPC- highest of anyone with over 100 attempts.
Hunt is a solid number 2 back with 263 at 4 yards per carry and 3 TDs. Hunt also 15 on 19 for receptions for 87 yards. 2 catches a game but limited to only 9 rushes across his last two for 16 yards and 3 targets with 1 catch for 4 yards- subject to trade talk so expect Chubb to increase his carry rate from 18 upwards- although only 16, 12 and 17 in his last 3- over not set amidst trade talks but if at 15/16 take the over.
Amari Cooper leading WR with 59 targets and 34 catches for 422 and 4 TDs. 4 of their 6 passing TDs gone to cooper- red zone threat.
Njoku also has 34 catches for 418 but on only 42 targets- over 80% catch rate very efficient- averaged 75.8 in past 5 weeks but isn't fit- huge loss.
DPJ as 2nd receiver- 26/42 for 336 with 48 ypg- expect an increase- has surpassed 50 on 5 of his 6 games including an average of 66.5 over his last 4- with minimum of 4 catches a game across those. Over of 44.5 seems very low.
Harrison Bryant backup TE will see snaps- and has 6 catches on 9 targets in games where he has a 50% snap share or more.
D’Ernest Johnson one to watch if Hunt gets traded.
Bengals defence
7th lowest PPG allowed- only 18.9 but have also played poor qb teams- Trubisky, Flacco, Cooper Rush, Bridgewater, poor form Lamar, Dalton and Mariota. Only played 2 of top 10 scoring teams.
10th fewest yards allowed- 321.1 a game and only 202.1 vs QBs but again poor qbs-9th fewest QB yards allowed.
15th most rush yards allowed- average with 119 a game but coming up against a huge rushing team- Saints put up 228 on them, Ravens 154 compared to 160 vs Browns.
Only allow 56.9% passer completion but also circumstance of the QBs they have played. Only allowed 6 tds- ( only 4 teams have fewer)
Only 12 sackes- 7th fewest but Hendrickson leads them 3.5.
Von bell with 3 INTs.
Have Not conceded a TD in the 2nd half all season- only allowed 30 points in the second half all season- only 4.3 average in second half. League average is 13.5 points in the second half .
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